Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: Year-end No. 1 scenarios after Greek's loss to Novak Djokovic in ATP Finals opener

The three-way battle between Carlos Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal, and Stefanos Tsitsipas for the year-end ATP No. 1 ranking is now down to a two-horse race. Tsitsipas' loss to Novak Djokovic in his 2022 ATP Finals opener put paid to his hopes of ending the men's tennis season as the top-ranked player.

Before the start of the tournament, Alcaraz had the best chance to remain World No. 1 given the tough tasks ahead of Nadal and Tsitsipas to overtake him. The 19-year-old Spaniard remains in pole position and his chances are now even better of becoming the youngest ever year-end World No. 1 on the ATP tour.

Nadal can still clinch the top spot, provided he wins the 2022 ATP Finals. After a loss to Taylor Fritz in his opening match and his troubles due to a lack of match time of late, that seems like a huge challenge for the Spanish tennis great.

Meanwhile, Tsitsipas lamented that the loss to Djokovic on Monday ended his hopes of earning the top spot in the rankings for the first time in his career. However, the Greek player is confident that he will become World No. 1 one day.

"If I was to play good tennis this week, win all of my matches, for sure I deserve the spot. It shows good performance, it shows consistency," Tsitsipas said after the match, as quoted by the ATP Tour.

"I deeply believe that I can reach that spot one day. I'm not really that much in a rush, to be honest," he added.

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The road ahead for Rafael Nadal to become year-end World No. 1

Rafael Nadal in action at the 2022 ATP Finals.

Rafael Nadal could have ended the season at the summit of the rankings even with a loss in the final of the 2022 ATP Finals, provided he had reached the final without losing any of his previous matches. However, after the loss to Fritz on Sunday, he has to win the title this week to bag the top spot.

The 36-year-old will face Felix Auger-Aliassime in his next match on Tuesday in a virtual knockout match, as a loss for the Spaniard could well prove to be the end of his World No. 1 hopes. The 22-time Grand Slam champion will then face Casper Ruud in his final group-stage match on Thursday.

Winning both those matches against Auger-Aliassime and Ruud will put him in a firm position to advance to the semifinals, where he will face either Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Novak Djokovic, or Andrey Rublev.