Tokyo 2023: Daria Kasatkina vs Marta Kostyuk preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Toray Pan Pacific Open

Daria Kasatkina (L) & Marta Kostyuk
Daria Kasatkina (L) & Marta Kostyuk

Match Details

Fixture: (6) Daria Kasatkina vs Marta Kostyuk

Tournament: Toray Pan Pacific Open 2023

Round: Round of 32

Venue: Tokyo, Japan

Category: WTA 500

Surface: Hard

Prize money: $780,637

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

Daria Kasatkina vs Marta Kostyuk preview

Sixth seed Daria Kasatkina faces World No. 42 Marta Kostyuk in a tricky opening-round clash at the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo next week.

Although a title is still lacking this year, the 13th-ranked Kasatkina has put together a decent season with a 32-21 win-loss record so far. The biggest highlights have, of course, been a couple of runner-up finishes at the Adelaide International 2 (hardcourt) and Eastbourne (grass).

The 26-year-old has also made the semifinals on the green clay of Charleston, showing her versatility on all three surfaces.

Kasatkina is coming into the fall swing on the back of a quarterfinal appearance at Montreal, and Round-of-16 finishes at each of Cincinnati and the US Open. With an encouraging hardcourt showing in the past one month, she will be keen to pick up from where she left off.

Marta Kostyuk strikes the ball at the San Diego Open
Marta Kostyuk strikes the ball at the San Diego Open

Marta Kostyuk, the highly talented 21-year-old from Ukraine, had long been touted as one of the biggest future stars. She finally had her breakthrough in March this year at the ATX Open in Texas, where she tasted her maiden title glory.

However, the youngster hasn't been able to build on that success since, reverting to her earlier inconsistent form. In the subsequent 13 tournaments since her Texas triumph, Kostyuk has lost her first match seven times, including the US Open. The 42nd-ranked player's best performance in this period was a solitary quarterfinal appearance at the Citi DC Open that sent her ranking soaring to a career-best 32.

Kostyuk will be arriving at the Japanese capital after a second-round exit at Guadalajara this week and badly needs a revival.

Daria Kasatkina vs Marta Kostyuk head-to-head

Kostyuk holds a slender 2-1 lead over Kasatkina in their head-to-head. Kostyuk won their first couple of encounters at the 2020 US Open and at Istanbul in 2021. The Russian earned her first win over Kostyuk with a 6-2, 7-5 scoreline in their most recent meeting at Birmingham in 2021.

Daria Kasatkina vs Marta Kostyuk odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Daria Kasatkina-190-1.5 (+125)Over 20.5 (-135)
Marta Kostyuk+145+1.5 (-175)Under 20.5 (-105)

All odds are sourced by BETMGM.

Daria Kasatkina vs Marta Kostyuk prediction

Kasatkina reacts during a match at the 2023 US Open.
Kasatkina reacts during a match at the 2023 US Open.

Although Kostyuk has got the better of Kasatkina twice, her current run of form doesn't inspire much confidence.

An uber-aggressive player, the Ukrainian, on her day, could be a dangerous opponent for the Russian to deal with, given her excellent power-packed baseline game. However, Kostyuk continues to blow hot and cold during matches, as evident from the fact that she has won just twice in her last five tournaments.

Kasatkina, on the other hand, has been far more solid and consistent this season. Albeit she lacks in the power department, the former World No. 8 more than makes up for it with her variety and finesse as well as her great defensive skills. Her crafty playing style will help her in breaking down the rhythm of the attacking Kostyuk, who might not find a way back if she keeps making loose errors.

Pick: Kasatkina to win in two tight sets.