US Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (4) Jessica Pegula

Date: September 5, 2025

Tournament: US Open 2025

Round: Semifinals

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Outdoor hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN, ESPN+ | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS | India - JioHotstar

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula preview

Aryna Sabalenka hits a forehand at the US Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will face fourth-seeded Jessica Pegula for a place in the final of the 2025 US Open on Friday (September 5).

Sabalenka has been in good form since her last-four defeat at Wimbledon, notwithstanding a surprise quarterfinal loss to Elena Rybakina at the Cincinnati Open. The World No. 1 has yet to drop a set in New York thus far, and is also well-rested considering how her last opponent, Marketa Vondrousova, gave her a safe passage into her 13th career Major semifinals.

Pegula, meanwhile, has also played some impressive tennis at the US Open following issues with consistency and making deep runs at tournaments earlier in 2025. The fourth seed has won all 10 of the sets she has contested at her home Slam, beating quality opponents like Barbora Krejcikova and Victoria Azarenka in her path.

The 31-year-old will be eager to exact revenge on her younger opponent for her 5-7, 5-7 loss in the title match at Flushing Meadows last year.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula head-to-head

Sabalenka leads Pegula by a large margin of 7-2 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA Tour. The Belarusian hasn't dropped a set against the American on a hardcourt in the last two years, with notable victories over her rival in the 2024 US Open and 2025 Miami Open finals to boot.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over/Under)
Aryna Sabalenka	-295	-1.5 (-118)	Over 20.5 (-140)
Jessica Pegula	+230	+1.5 (-120)	Under 20.5 (-102)

All bets sourced from BetMGM.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula prediction

Jessica Pegula serves at the US Open | Image Source: Getty

In her fourth-round win at Flushing Meadows, Sabalenka won a whopping 84% of her first-serve points and hit 26 winners for just 18 unforced errors, thereby underlining her dominance from the forecourt this fortnight. The 27-year-old, who dropped the French Open final a few months ago due to erratic play, will have to emulate the above display of stability against a player of Pegula's pedigree.

Being the last American standing can be a responsibility too tough to shoulder for most players at the US Open. However, the World No. 4 has lived up to her billing regardless, as evidenced by her 6-3, 6-3 rout of two-time Major titlist Krejcikova earlier this week. She will have to be wary of Sabalenka's cross-court backhands that have always come in handy at opening up the court.

The keys to winning for the 2024 champion, meanwhile, will be to keep uncharacteristic errors on the down low and consistently push Pegula back from the baseline. The top seed will be very intent on a two-peat in New York later this week, and those prospects alone ensure that she will come out mentally sharp ahead of her semifinals outing on Friday.

Pick: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.