US Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (31) Leylah Fernandez

Date: August 29, 2025

Tournament: US Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez preview

Aryna Sabalenka at the US Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will lock horns with Leylah Fernandez in the third round of the US Open 2025.

Sabalenka commenced her title defense with a 7-5, 6-1 win over Rebeka Masarova. She was up against Polina Kudermetova in the second round. The top seed got broken in the very first game of the match but broke back immediately to stay on level terms. Both had a few break point chances on the other's serve for the remainder of the set, especially the Russian.

The set eventually went to a tie-break, in which Sabalenka came out on top to take the first set. She crushed Kudermetova's resistance in the next set, breaking her opponent's serve twice to register a 7-6 (4), 6-2 win.

Fernandez cruised past Rebecca Marino 6-2, 6-1 in the first round, setting up a second-round showdown against Elsa Jacquemot. The Canadian found herself outgunned in the opening set, ceding control of the set after initially making up a break deficit.

Fernandez regrouped over the next two sets, displaying the same tenacity that led her to the US Open final four years ago. She didn't drop her serve even once after the first set, while breaking Jacquemot's serve thrice to wrap up a 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 comeback win.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez head-to-head

Fernandez leads their rivalry 1-0. She won their previous meeting at the US Open 2021 in three sets.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Aryna Sabalenka	-625	+1.5 (-2500)	Over 19.5 (-135)
Leylah Fernandez	+400	-1.5 (+675)	Under 19.5 (-110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez prediction

Leylah Fernandez at the US Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Both of Sabalenka's matches here have unfolded in similar fashion, a tough opening set followed by a routine second set. However, she has looked far from convincing. Her return of serve has been inconsistent, and her ground game has been wobbly as well. She hit 18 winners in contrast to 22 unforced errors in the previous round, while winning 78 percent of her first serve points.

Fernandez kicked off her campaign here with an easy win over Marino but had to dig deep in the previous round against Jacquemot. She struck 41 winners against 34 unforced errors, and won 63 percent of points on the back of her first serve. She's through to the third round of the US Open for the first time since her runner-up finish here four years ago.

Fernandez also beat Sabalenka in the semifinals in three sets en route to the US Open final. Their careers have turned out quite differently since then. When she lost to the Canadian, Sabalenka hadn't even reached a Major final. She has since won three Major titles, and hasn't lost prior to the quarterfinals of a Major since the US Open 2022.

Fernandez's defensive skills and her ability to redirect the ball could test Sabalenka's patience. However, the defending champion's consistency at the Majors still makes her the favorite to win the match.

Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.