US Open 2025: Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (14) Tommy Paul vs (23) Alexander Bublik

Date: August 30, 2025

Tournament: 2025 US Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN, ESPN+ | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik preview

Tommy Paul pictured at the 2025 US Open | Image Source: Getty

14th seed Tommy Paul will face off against 23rd seed Alexander Bublik in the second round (Round of 64) of the 2025 US Open in New York on Saturday, August 30.

Paul showed strong consistency in the first half of the season, making deep runs at the Adelaide International, the Dallas Open, and the Australian Open, where he reached the quarterfinals. His form dipped slightly afterwards, though he still managed a solid quarterfinal finish at the French Open.

The American opened his North American hardcourt swing in Cincinnati, beating Pedro Martinez before falling to Adrian Mannarino in the third round. He has since arrived in New York and started his campaign on a high note with a commanding 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 win over Elmer Moller. He followed it up with another 7-6(6), 6-3, 5-7, 5-7, 7-5 victory against Nuno Borges.

Alexander Bublik pictured at the 2025 US Open | Image Source: Getty

Meanwhile, Bublik’s season has been a rollercoaster, marked by plenty of ups and downs early on before he found his rhythm later in the year. His standout moments came with title runs at the Terra Wortmann Open, the Swiss Open in Gstaad, and the Generali Open

The Kazakh skipped the entire North American hardcourt swing before arriving at the US Open. He opened his campaign with a 6-4, 6-1, 6-4 win over former champion Marin Cilic, then followed it up by beating Tristan Schoolkate 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 to book his spot in the third round.

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik head-to-head

This will be the pair’s fourth meeting on the ATP Tour, with Paul winning all three of their previous encounters in Rotterdam (2021), Wimbledon (2024) and the Miami Open (2025).

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tommy Paul	+105	-0.5 (+105)	Under 39.5 (-118)
Alexander Bublik	-135	+0.5 (-150)	Over 39.5 (-120)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM).

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik prediction

Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik square off in a third-round battle that promises to be unpredictable. Both have shown flashes of brilliance this season, but neither has been immune to lapses.

Paul relies on his athleticism and counterpunching ability, thriving in longer exchanges where his speed and consistency can wear opponents down. He’ll try to absorb Bublik’s firepower and turn defense into offense whenever the opportunity comes.

Bublik, on the other hand, is all about flair and shot-making. From big serves to sudden drop shots, he keeps matches on his terms. His challenge will be maintaining focus against an opponent who won’t give much away.

If Paul can stay solid and make Bublik play one more ball, the American should have the upper hand. But if Bublik finds his range and serves well, this matchup could tilt in his favor quickly.

Pick: Alexander Bublik to win in four sets.