US Open 2025: Tommy Paul vs Elmer Moller preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (14) Tommy Paul vs Elmer Moller

Date: August 25, 2025

Tournament: US Open 2025

Round: First Round (Round of 128)

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $90,000,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Tommy Paul vs Elmer Moller preview

Tommy Paul at the Cincinnati Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

14th seed Tommy Paul will square off against Elmer Moller in the first round of the US Open 2025.

Paul had a solid start to the season, reaching the semifinals in Adelaide and the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. Another semifinal in Dallas was followed by a surprising second-round loss to Marcos Giron in Acapulco. He went out in the fourth round of the Indian Wells Masters, and capped off his time on hardcourts with a third-round exit from the Miami Open.

Paul performed quite consistently on clay, making the last four in Houston and Rome, as well as the French Open quarterfinals. Unfortunately, he picked up an injury during the clay court Major, and hasn't been the same since then. He crashed out in the second round of Wimbledon, and more recently, suffered a third-round loss at the Cincinnati Open.

Moller has won a couple of titles at the Challenger level this year, though he hasn't made his breakthrough on the ATP Tour just yet. He made his Masters 1000 debut at the Madrid Open, and later made his Major debut at the French Open. He lost in the first round on both occasions. He will now be making his debut at the US Open.

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Tommy Paul vs Elmer Moller head-to-head

Paul leads their rivalry 1-0. He won their previous meeting at the French Open 2025 in four sets.

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Tommy Paul vs Elmer Moller odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tommy Paul	-1600	+1.5 (-10000)	Over 29.5 (-110)
Elmer Moller	+775	-1.5 (+950)	Under 29.5 (-130)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Tommy Paul vs Elmer Moller prediction

Elmer Moller at the French Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Paul is yet to post a solid result since he injured himself at the French Open, posting a 2-3 record since then. He will aim to rediscover his best in front of his home crowd at the US Open. He has made the fourth round here for the past two years, though this is the only Major where he hasn't made at least the quarterfinals so far.

Moller has made steady progress this season, although most of it has been thanks to his performances on the Challenger circuit. He has only one win at the ATP level compared to six losses. He managed to win a set against Paul when they crossed paths at the French Open a few months ago, though his resistance crumbled as the match went on.

That match was also played on clay, a surface preferred by Moller. He could find it tough to challenge Paul on hardcourts. Furthermore, this will be his first match on hardcourts at any level since February. Having played mostly on clay for the past six months, he could find the transition to hardcourts challenging. Going up against a top 20 player doesn't help his case either, thus setting the stage for Paul's win.

Pick: Tommy Paul to win in four sets.