Maple Leafs gets pushed down as Panthers, Golden Knights & $2B franchise take top 3 spot for 2025-26 NHL predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs are not among the top three picks to win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup. According to The Athletic’s early predictions, the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights are tied at the top with 34.8%. The Dallas Stars, valued at $2 billion by Forbes, are third with 13.0%.

The Maple Leafs are lower on the list with only 4.3%. Additionally, they are tied with the Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets, who also made it to the playoffs in the 2024-25 NHL season. One of whom, the Edmonton Oilers, has made it to two consecutive Stanley Cup finals and missed the Cup by just one goal in the 2023-24 NHL season.

Vegas's chances have improved after the addition of forward Mitch Marner in free agency. He is one of the best playmakers in the League, and has scored his career high of 102 points last season. The move gives them more offense, but some worry about their defense.

Florida has kept most of its key players, including veteran star Brad Marchand, who has signed a 6-year, $31,500,000 contract in 2025 free agency. Florida also has their star goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has limited the Edmonton Oilers' offense, despite the presence of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Both stars looked helpless in the 2025 Stanley Cup Finals.

Coming to Dallas, they are gaining attention because of their strong core, which also has star players like Mikko Rantanen. Rantanen scored two Stanley Cup playoff hat-tricks in 2025. They are expected to come back stronger after another Western Conference loss to Edmonton.

What did not work for the Maple Leafs in 2025 playoffs?

The Maple Leafs finished first in the Atlantic Division last season. They defeated the Ottawa Senators in Round 1, but lost to Florida in Round 2. They had a 2-0 series lead but lost four of the next five games. Game 7 ended with a 6-1 loss at home. It was their seventh straight Game 7 loss since 2004.

Toronto’s top players, including Matthews and Marner, struggled again in big moments. They scored just two goals combined in the second round. The team managed only four goals in the last four games of the series.

Florida pressured Toronto with its forecheck, leading to many turnovers. Game 3 was a turning point, in which Toronto had a 2-0 lead and a great chance to win in overtime. But Florida scored and took over the series.

Toronto Maple Leafs fans were frustrated once again, leading to forward Mitch Marner's eventual departure from the city.