Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators: Game 6 preview, predictions and odds | Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1, May 1 2025

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the road to play the Ottawa Senators in Game 6 of their first-round matchup on Thursday, May 1, at 7 p.m. ET.

Ottawa has won back-to-back games to keep the series lead as the Sens trail the series 3-2.

Maple Leafs vs Senators: Head-to-head & key stats

• Ottawa went 3-0 against Toronto this season, but is now 2-3 in the playoffs
• Toronto is 25-13-3 on the road
• The Senators are averaging 2.95 goals per game
• The Maple Leafs are averaging 3.25 goals per game
• Ottawa is allowing 2.82 goals per game
• Toronto is allowing 2.79 goals per game
• The Sens are 27-19-4 at home

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators: Preview

Toronto has lost back-to-back games, and the confidence has swung back into the Senators' favor. In Game 4, Toronto failed to score a goal as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander have once again struggled in series-clinching games.

The Maple Leafs will start Anthony Stolarz, who went 21-8-3 with a 2.14 GAA and a .926 SV%. In his career against Ottawa, he's 2-4 with a 2.55 GAA and a .918 SV%. In the playoffs, he's 3-2 with a 2.25 GAA and a .899 SV% as he has struggled more as the season went on.

Ottawa, meanwhile, has been playing well in this series and really should be up 3-2 as they deserved to win Game 2. The Sens will start Linus Ullmark, who's coming off a shutout and has only gotten better since the series has gone on. Ullmark went 25-14-3 with a 2.72 GAA and a .909 SV%. In his career against Toronto, he's 6-5-1 with a 2.86 GAA and a .905 SV%. In the playoffs, he's 2-3 with a 2.80 GAA and a .883 SV%.

In Game 5, Ottawa was led by Tim Stutzle, who had a goal and 2 assists, Brady Tkachuk also had a goal and 2 assists, while Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens also scored.

Maple Leafs vs Senators: Odds & Prediction

Toronto is a -102 underdog while Ottawa is a -118 favorite, and the over/under is set at 5.5 goals.

The Maple Leafs haven't been playing well, and if Ottawa wins Game 6, all the thoughts of choking will be brought back, as Toronto had a 3-0 series lead.

The Senators have confidence and Ullmark has been playing better than Stolarz, which should remain the case in Game 6 at home as Ottawa will force a Game 7.

Prediction: Senators 3, Toronto 1.

Maple Leafs vs Senators: Betting Tips

Tip 1: Ottawa ML (-118)

Tip 2: Under 5.5 goals (-120)

Tip 3: Shane Pinto 2+ shots on goal (-145)