ESPN's Jeff Passan discusses Shohei Ohtani's gambling saga, the best & worst of the offseason, and predictions for 2024 (Exclusive)

It seems as if the unusual has become the norm for Major League Baseball in its past few offseasons. There have been pandemic issues to deal with and labor strife and truncated schedules.

This offseason was mainly about baseball – although the primary storyline was which stars were signing record deals and which ones were waiting an inordinately long time to find a team.

Then, all eyes shifted back to two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who had made headlines in December by signing a landmark 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In March, the news was much grimmer. Ohtani was connected to a federal investigation into illegal gambling practices that ensnared his longtime friend and interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, who allegedly stole $4.5 million from Ohtani’s accounts to pay off his own gambling debts.

Although Mizuhara initially told ESPN that Ohtani authorized the payments, he has since retracted those statements. Meanwhile, Ohtani, during a press conference this week, stated that he didn’t know anything about the financial transactions, painted the situation as a betrayal and stressed he did not gamble – and specifically -- not on baseball.

Jeff Passan, ESPN’s senior MLB Insider, has been following this story closely. He’s also been preparing for the 2024 season, which begins in earnest Thursday.

Here’s an exclusive interview with Passan about the Ohtani situation and also what he thinks about this upcoming MLB year.

Editor’s note: The following one-on-one has been edited and condensed.

What and whom do you believe in this Shohei Ohtani gambling controversy?

Jeff Passan:

I still don’t know what to believe. I can only believe the stories that I’m hearing until proven otherwise. That’s our duty as reporters, right? To try and separate fact from fiction. The facts that Shohei Ohtani is laying out right now are that he is the victim in this case. That he was betrayed by a friend, a confidant, somebody in Ippei Mizuhara, who was far more than just an interpreter for him. It was striking, I think, seeing the emotion Ohtani had -- toward the end of the press conference particularly -- where he was talking about how he doesn’t really know how to feel. That he’s still numb to this.

The story aligns with what Tisha Thompson, our great reporter at ESPN, put out there early on. It’s a story that Ohtani is going to be sticking to. But I also would love to see more validation beyond just his words. I want to know who his people referred the criminal activity to, which agency that they say that they reported to. But we haven’t been able to confirm neither the agency nor that it was even reported at this point.

In doing so, that would open Ohtani’s story up to scrutiny from federal authorities, who were investigating this case. A lot of the facts that we may not be able to get as journalists, the government tends to get because of the investigative power that they have. That’s where my thoughts are right now. We have a version of the story and Ohtani is being consistent in telling it.

There have already been twists and turns in this saga. Where do you expect it to go from here and when could it be resolved?

Jeff Passan:

The ‘when’ part I think is not for a while. And that’s as much a function of the wide-ranging scope of this federal investigation than anything. Even though he’s by far the biggest headline in this story, Shohei Ohtani is just a small piece of this federal investigation that has been going on for a long time now. And nobody has gotten the sense that it is going to be wrapping up anytime soon. Because of that, this is something that could linger. That’s why it is so fascinating to me.

We’ve seen with Major League Baseball’s investigations -- take the Trevor Bauer case for example -- generally speaking, the league waits until investigators outside of (its own) Department of Investigations wrap up looking into a subject. In Bauer’s case, the district attorney did not charge him and pretty soon thereafter the suspension was levied (by MLB). In Ohtani’s case, I think they’re operating on the premise right now that Ohtani is telling the truth. And that’s the story they are looking into. But whether it’s the federal investigators, MLB’s Department of Investigations or ESPN’s investigative team, we are all treating this like we don’t know the full story until we have talked to all relevant participants. I think we’re in the nascent stages of that right now, and that’s something that’s not going to end for a while.

Is it possible that an Ohtani suspension could be looming here?

Jeff Passan:

Let’s look at discipline first from Major League Baseball with regards to gambling. The last time that a player was involved with issues of gambling was Jarred Cosart (in 2015). The penalty for him for placing bets on sports other than baseball with an illegal bookmaker was a fine. The place where we start getting into the realm of suspension is when we’re talking about gambling on baseball. And through our reporting so far, we’ve got no indication that that was the case (with Ohtani).

We are certainly not discounting the possibility of that, but there’s no evidence of that at this point. If you are caught betting on baseball, other than on your team, it’s a one-year suspension. If you are caught betting on games involving your team, then it’s a lifetime ban. I think discipline at this point is a little premature until we have a greater sense of the full scope of the story. But based on the evidence right now, if that holds, then there would be no discipline, because Ohtani is a victim and not a participant in this.

Do you think this will affect him as a player in 2024? There obviously was a lot of pressure on him to perform with the Dodgers even before this issue arose.

Jeff Passan:

I have learned my lesson in terms of doubting Shohei Ohtani. I didn’t think he was going to come over here and be a two-way player and it turns out he is the most talented player that we’ve ever seen playing the game. He has seamlessly made the transition from Japan to the United States and to Major League Baseball. The idea that he doesn’t have the mental fortitude to power through this and still figure out a way to be one of the best hitters this season in Major League Baseball, I don’t buy that. But at the same time there is the human factor here.

This is bound to weigh on you and bound to occupy your thoughts and your mind. If the story he is telling is true, he got duped by someone he thought was one of the closest people to him in his life. When something like that happens, you can’t ignore it. You can’t just wish it away. You need to learn to live with it, and I think as he endeavors to begin his first season with the Dodgers this year, that’s something that’s going to be paramount for his success on the field.

Given the dramatic increase in legal sports gambling in the country, does MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and the MLBPA need to address gambling more specifically going forward?

Jeff Passan:

It’s a good question. I don’t know what they can do right now beyond what they’re already doing. I feel like this is more a sports-wide issue than it is necessarily baseball. Look at what’s going on in the NBA right now (a gambling investigation involving Toronto forward Dontay Parker). This is something that’s pervasive because gambling is now pervasive. So, maybe through the lens that the gambling landscape has shifted drastically and, whether it is Major League Baseball or any of the other sports that are out there, there haven’t been enough guardrails put in place to prevent potential nefarious things from happening. That I think is certainly worthy of discussion.

Every year in spring training, Rule 21, every player hears about it. ‘Don’t bet on baseball. Don’t bet on baseball.’ It’s like a mantra. So, maybe the education on the subject needs to go beyond that to warn the players not just of the danger that gambling can pose to individuals but what it can pose to the entirety of the sport. I think this would be a little different if it weren’t Shohei Ohtani and if it were someone else. It also is an object lesson. That gambling and the umbrella that it encompasses can ensnare even the biggest name in the game.

Let’s talk about the game itself. Which team had the best offseason; which had the worst?

Jeff Passan:

Best offseason has to be the Dodgers. You get Shohei Ohtani; you get Yoshinobu Yakamoto, the No. 1 and No. 2 free agents on the market and, on top of that trade, trade for Tyler Glasnow. It’s hard to think anyone else got better than the Dodgers did this winter. In terms of bad offseasons, I look at the teams that had the opportunity to make improvements and didn’t go far enough, whether it is Minnesota, and I understand the Twins are in American League Central, which is still eminently winnable and where they are still understandably the favorite. But they didn’t add to the core that they’ve got. And Cleveland not going out and getting a bat. There were just a lot of opportunities for teams that stood pat more than their positions suggested they should.

Which under the radar teams do you think could surprise? One AL and one NL.

Jeff Passan:

I picked Detroit to win the American League Central this year. They’ve got a ton of pitching depth. I really like their young position players, whether it’s Riley Greene, Colt Keith, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows. And their bullpen’s solid, too. That’s mostly an indictment on the American League Central more than it is in favor of the Tigers. But I do think they are going to better and once Jackson Jobe comes up, I mean, he’s a dude.

In the National League: Cincinnati. They were just over .500 last year (82-80). They need to be healthy. They need Matt McLain on the field at some point and they need Noelvi Marté back from PED suspension. But Elly De La Cruz can be a star. And Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who they got in the Tyler Mahle deal, which was an absolute coup, are gonna be solid. And they, too, have a ton of young arms right now. There’re going to be some that don’t work out, but there’re going to be some that do. Even though they lost some pitchers early on to injuries this season, they have enough depth to weather it.

What about a high-profile team, maybe a playoff club from last season, that you think will be most disappointing?

Jeff Passan:

The Yankees weren’t a playoff team last year and I’m not sure they are going to be a playoff team this year, either. I understand there is no better 1-2 punch in baseball than Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. You can argue Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson or Austin Riley or frankly like three other guys in the Braves lineup. There are some good combinations out there. But Judge-Soto is the apex. But to lose Gerrit Cole for at least the next couple months and potentially longer, this season is going to hinge on him. If he comes back when he’s supposed to, I think the Yankees have a really good shot at surviving the American League East and surviving the postseason. I don’t think, frankly, that they’re going to be in the mix to win the division.

I think it is Baltimore’s to lose. That’s a crazy thing to say considering where the Orioles have been in recent years, but this is a burgeoning megateam and one of the more fascinating storylines for me in the 2024 season. ‘OK, just how good are the Orioles going to be?’ Because we’re going to see, I think, most of their (top prospects) at some point this year, whether it’s Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo or even Sam Basallo. And to see them complementing Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg. The cup runneth over there. It’s an amazing group of young players.

What about in the NL? Is there a team that feels like a potential disappointment?

Jeff Passan:

I look at the NL West and I’m so confused by San Diego and San Francisco. I feel like they have the highest variance of any teams in baseball. I could see both falling on their faces; I could see both winning 90 games. I just don’t have a good feel for who they are going to be. The Giants, particularly. At the beginning of February, when PECOTA put out its projections, the Giants were projected to finish fourth in the National League West. Now, after signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, they have them as the third best team in the National League. I don’t think the Giants are the third best team in the National League, but they certainly are improved, and all it took was a willingness to go and spend money.

What about individuals? Give me some names you think will make serious noise in 2024.

Jeff Passan:

I’m excited to watch Julio Rodriguez this year. I think that he’s about as talented as any player in baseball. I love the joy with which he plays the game. And between him and a rotation that is filled with guys who can throw up to 100 mph -- like five guys that are pushing high 90s -- that’s the epitome of baseball these days. I think the Mariners are going to do some damage in the American League West, which, if the last two teams were a little bit better, I’d say that they’re the best division in baseball. There still might be a case that they are.

Another guy I’m looking at is Wyatt Langford, the No. 4 overall pick in the draft last year who slipped to Texas and, in less than a year, is up in the big leagues and is going to be getting regular playing time. He can really hit. The physical nature, the body type, it’s a slightly smaller Mike Trout. I’m not saying Wyatt Langford is going to be Mike Trout. What I’m saying is he’s got that linebacker build that still translates to enormous bat speed and massive power. A full year of him and Evan Carter, on top of what the Rangers already have, that’s the rich getting richer.

OK, last one, World Series prediction and why?

Jeff Passan:

I’ve got the Orioles winning the American League pennant. I do. And it’s because I just can’t look at that lineup without a giant grin breaking out over my face. They are just really good. And I know spring training doesn’t mean anything, but I think what we saw in spring training we are going to see in the regular season, too, just them running through opponents. I’ve got them facing the Atlanta Braves, and, ultimately, I have the Braves winning. I pretty much pick the Braves every year. One of these years, I’m going to be right.

It’s just the core of that team. You go around the entire lineup. At catcher, you’ve got Sean Murphy, All Star. Matt Olson, 54 home runs, All Star at first base. Ozzie Albies, All Star at second. Orlando Arcia at shortstop. Austin Riley, All Star at third. Jarred Kelenic, it will be interesting to see him and Adam Duvall share some playing time (in left field). Michael Harris II, All Star caliber player in center field and then Ronald Acuna Jr., the reigning National League MVP. Plus, you have Marcell Ozuna at DH, All Star as well.

Then you add a resurgent Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, who I think is the best pitcher in baseball with Gerrit Cole down, and Max Fried. And then a bullpen that could be the best in baseball, too. The Braves really don’t have a weakness. And it’s hard to say that about a team these days. But I think they embody that.