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This is the second half of our series on the biggest breakout candidates across the NFL this upcoming season, where we focus on players heading into year two or three.
Once again, I’ll start by giving a quick introduction to each player with his collegiate background and time spent in the NFL so far, discuss the strengths of those players and some areas in which they flash certain skills, list a few things they should focus on improving upon and then explain my reasoning for them becoming impact players this year.
In order to bring some fresh names to the table, I didn’t include players who have already recorded double-digit sacks or tackles for loss, recorded three or more interceptions, earned a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro nomination so far.
Furthermore, I didn’t list a few other names that are largely already considered to be young stars, such as Jaelan Phillips or Jaycee Horn, and there will be no repeats from last year, which included names like Dayo Odeyingbo, Isaiah Simmons and Richie Grant.
We already started with the offensive guys last week and now we transition to eight more names over on the defensive side of the ball:
#1, Drake Jackson, San Francisco 49ers (EDGE)
Just outside the top-50 overall recruits in 2019, Drake Jackson immediately jumped onto the national scene with a Freshman All-American season (46 tackles, 11.5 for loss, 5.5 sacks, three PBUs and a forced fumble), before his numbers fell off a little bit the next two years.
He still ended up going at the back end of the second round last year (61st overall) to a team that has been rotating through athletic pass-rushers for several years now. Jackson appeared in 15 games as a rookie, but never managed to knock Samson Ebukam out of the starting lineup.
Ultimately, he recorded three sacks and tackles for loss each, but also had an interception off a batted pass in Week 17 against the Raiders (down by three at the start of the fourth quarter) and a crazy eight passes broken up, despite only spending one snap in coverage all year, according to Pro Football Focus.
This guy’s movement skills at 6-foot-4, 250+ pounds are pretty special and I believe we could see his underlying numbers ascend soon, after putting up 16 total pressures across 228 pass-rush snaps as a rookie.
Just watching the 49ers' D-line come off the ball in passing situations, the two guys that stand out looking at the juice in their get-off are Nick Bosa and Jackson. Obviously, there’s a long way to go, before the young buck becomes anywhere as effective at getting home as the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
However, he’s a pretty unique mover and something that he actually has over a more tightly-wound Bosa is his looseness and the way he can bend his rushes. We didn’t get a chance to see it as consistently as what he’s capable of, because he’s still learning how to counter more technically sound tackles in the way they utilize hand combats, but the flashes were there of him dipping underneath guys and turning the corner at challenging angles.
Along with that, he features a strong combo of the stab with a more direct path toward the middle of the tackle’s chest in order to create a softer corner for himself as he transitions into the club-rip move.
Due to the wide-nine alignments San Francisco likes to put their D-ends in, once he’s established the outside rush, the way he can crash across the face of tackles with the rip-through can create real issues. I thought the shake he displayed as a rusher in college really caught your eye and as he learns how to defeat the blocker’s hands earlier, that should shine more in the pros as well.
Even if Jackson does find himself in semi-stalemates with blockers, because of his length and slipperiness, he can free himself by swatting away their hands and/or ripping through their shoulder, to create an angle towards the passer for himself. He will also hit a nice spin move a few times once he’s pushed guys up the field.
San Francisco ran the second-highest rate of games up front (33%) to only the Cowboys in 2022 and Jackson was immediately involved as a pretty versatile piece on those. You see him jump a couple of gaps over as he sticks the outside foot into the ground on T-E twists while keeping his shoulders pretty much parallel to the line of scrimmage, in order to not widen his path. Yet, he can also free up his teammate off the edge on those when pushing up the B-gap.
The Niners coaching staff deployed Jackson to some degree in the role they had for Arden Key in 2021, where he would basically be a nose tackle on passing downs or some two-minute drills/end-of-half situations. From that spot, he was assigned spy duties and hanging over the center, to bat down passes over the middle and pursue scrambling quarterbacks, or looped out wide all the way to the opposite side edge at times.
Run defense was certainly the weak area of Jackson’s profile coming out of USC. But where he does get the job done already is pressing off tight ends near the point of attack and gaining vision on the ball carrier or condensing the edge when the play is designed the other way by riding those guys closer toward the action.
What really stands out in that regard is the flexibility in his ankles to change directions, where he can attack a couple of steps up the field and then angle by 90 degrees to flatten down the line as he sees the ball handed off.
I expect that part of his game to improve in year two, as D-line coach Kris Kocurek teaches him how to use those tilted wide-nine alignments to his advantage, building up force via that runway towards the blocker and squeezing down that way – along with helping him build up a more comprehensive pass-rush.
The big reason why this is certainly still a projection, expecting Jackson to become a true difference-maker in year two, is how little he saw the field as a rookie. He finished only seventh in snaps among the defensive linemen (29.4%), in part due to a run-defense grade by PFF of just 62.8.
His ability to establish first meaningful contact with his hands, work that half-man relationship and lock out blockers, in order to set a hard edge is clearly not a strong suit at this point (which isn’t overly surprising, going off his evaluation coming out of USC).
Generally, rushing the passer, I believe he has room to upgrade his ability to not allow blockers to land their hands inside his frame first and dictate reps to some degree. Because of that, his arc gets widened and he regularly has to try re-gaining his balance, being caught in odd positions. Jackson also allows chips by the tight end or a back walking up on him, to throw him off significantly.
It was surprising to see how often he got extra attention for being an unproven player along that fearsome Gold Rush, but I guess it had more to do with his alignment in accordance with the offensive play design, which benefitted teammates.
Looking at how different the Niners' defense might look in 2023, I believe we will see more of an impact on the back-end with the change at defensive coordinator from DeMeco Ryans to Steve Wilks, to where they may rely on more single-high structures and a heavier blitz rate.
For the D-line, that might mean fewer stunts and twists, in favor of just letting guys attack up the field. San Francisco did let Samson Ebukam and Charles Omenihu walk in free agency, but brought in former Raiders top-five pick Clelin Ferrell.
The biggest personnel addition however is defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who not only should firm up the interior run defense, but also create softer angles for those outside rushers thanks to the way he creates push up the middle of the pocket.
Jackson only just turned 22 years old mid-way through April and his ability to win hand-combats earlier improves, the wiggle and flexibility to put stress on the guys across from him should make him tough to stay in front of.
#2, Baron Browning, Denver Broncos (EDGE)
A top-10 overall recruit for Ohio State back in 2017, it took Baron Browning until his senior year to become a full-time starter for the Buckeyes. Settling in at SAM linebacker, he impressed with his movement skills despite his oversized frame for guys typically playing in space as regularly, along with showing some effectiveness as a blitzer.
Overall, he put up 109 total tackles, 17 of those for loss and nine sacks across just under 900 career snaps. He ended up being the final pick on day two of the 2021 draft (105th overall).
So far, he has played 14 games in each of his two seasons in Denver and also actually logged exactly 60% of snaps when available. However, he went from an exclusive off-ball linebacker as a rookie to a true edge defender in year two, and after putting up 58 tackles as a rookie, but very few legit impact plays, he recorded five sacks, eight tackles for loss, an interception and two more passes broken up in his second season.
Trimming down a little bit for 2022 at 6‘3“, just over 240 pounds in his first year as a full-time edge rusher, he also racked up 38 pressures across just 284 pass-rush snaps.
This guy’s burst off the ball and ability to tilt his rushes is highly impressive. Von Miller was and largely still is a generational talent in his flexibility to bend and turn the corner low off the ground, but this guy is the closest thing the Broncos have seen since then over the last couple of years.
Just like the veteran, Browning has instances where he jumps the snap as he reads the center’s head bob down or some other tell, putting immense pressure on tackles to meet him at a spot, which forces those guys to flip their hips a lot earlier than they’d like to, if they want to still cut off his angle.
Plus, as he gets to the top of his rush, he’s able to drop that inside knee and shoulder a little further, in order to dip underneath and get around as he’s just about to get beyond the quarterback.
Looking at the Next Gen Stats tracking, he finished right behind Nick Bosa and Maxx Crosby as the first three names outside the top 10 in terms of fastest get-off among pass-rushers and he actually finished second to only another double-digit sack guy in Josh Sweat in terms of shortest time from the start of the play to hitting the QB.
Browning recognizes when tackles set too softly on him or try to catch him, straightening his path and going through their chest. You see him even ride guys like 360-pound Orlando Brown Jr. backward with the long arm, in part because of how well he rushes with leverage.
Off the bull rush, he showcases impressive coordination to almost euro-step around blockers on power-to-speed maneuvers, as he initially aims at the center of the man in front of him before swatting down the near-wrist and pulling the inside foot around.
Plus, while I don’t typically love seeing it, he throws out such a fluid outside spin move every once in a while, where he’s just able to stay on his feet as he circles around the tackle.
I also saw him realize after getting chipped and the tackle got too far up the field, taking the direct path as quarterbacks hitched up and getting a hit on those guys. He had a few snaps of absolutely whacking running backs trying to chip-help on him and actually got both their feet off the ground on multiple occasions.
For only a second-year player, Browning not only showed quickly how he could identify the weaknesses of his opponents and how to set them up throughout games, by stringing together moves, but his execution of twists was also excellent.
He does a great job of attacking far enough up the field to get the guard and tackle fanned out that way basically when he has a B-gap rusher inside of him. He then sticks his outside foot in the ground as his hips are already pointed towards the middle and curving his path towards the QB as he loops around the inside hip of the guard. In that, he shows tremendous flexibility in his ankles throughout that curvilinear movement, in the mold of a running back turning the corner.
Along with the juice he provided as a pass-rusher, the Broncos still utilized Browning’s easy movement skills dropping out into coverage. He spent 78 snaps in pass defense last season, where they would have him stand up over the guard and bail out into the hook area, in order to pick up crossers or get underneath ticket-ends curling up over the middle, or peel off the edge and widen with the running back releasing his way.
Understanding that Browning has primarily been deployed off the ball throughout his time at Ohio State and as a rookie for the Broncos, his take-on technique and how he times stacking-and-shedding blockers understandably is still a bit of a work in progress.
However, he does use natural leverage and 33 ½-inch arms to his advantage in that regard, while rarely allowing opponents to take up and step into his space in that regard. Moreover, you really like his activity near the point of attack, where particularly when lined up over tight ends, he can stay mostly square and then disengage once he sees the back commit, in order to create stops for minimal yardage.
When tight-ends are asked to seal him on the backside, Browning typically caves that side in and eliminates any cutback opportunity. This is not somebody you can leave unblocked on the backside, where (even if he has to hesitate for a split-second to make sure the quarterback didn’t pull the ball) he can still run down the ball carrier, especially if that guy tries to cut back into that void between Browning and the tackle/tight-end zone-blocking away from him.
With that being said, how aggressively he wants to come off the ball did hurt his team at times too, as he got called for seven total penalties this past season, all on different variations of coming across the line of scrimmage prematurely. Improving his consistency will now be key for Browning.
Watching the Colts game in Week 5, he was an absolute game-wrecker, with ten total pressures on just 22 pass-rush snaps. Yet, he didn’t even reach half of that mark in any other contest throughout the year.
Where he still needs to grow is when tackles really jump out to him coming from those wide alignments, to punish them with quick inside moves and also just as he’s at the apex of his rush with tackles fully having his hips committed towards him to slide underneath once he’s even with the QB.
Getting to his counters earlier should be a focus of 2023. In the run game, while he doesn’t get ridden too far from his landmarks, I think there’s room for improvement with landing his hands inside the frame of tackles and locking out early, before they can create that initial momentum and turn him a little bit on drive-blocks.
He quickly flattens down the line approaching pullers, but doesn’t create traffic in the backfield like some other guys do when given the chance. You’d like to see him make whenever tight-ends are assigned to block him, it being a more apparent mismatch.
Looking at the Broncos' depth chart and their moves since the conclusion of the 2021/22 season tells a story. They handed Randy Gregory a five-year, 70-million dollar contract, made Oklahoma’s Nik Bonitto their top draft pick in 2022 (64th overall) and recently brought on Frank Clark for a year (coming over from Kansas City). This wouldn’t make you believe they have a superstar in the making.
However, Vance Joseph wants to keep his rushers fresh. So the one-on-one opportunities he will create for Browning (as they bring at least the max amount of guys offenses can account for in protection when they blitz), means that even if he doesn’t quite crack 70% of snaps, he can be highly productive on those.
Going through the list of what I’m looking for in young edge defenders – getting off the ball, flexibility, forceful hands, change-of-direction and mental growth – this guy checks every single box.
#3, Christian Barmore, New England Patriots (Interior D-line)
A four-star recruit in 2018, after an initial redshirt year, Christian Barmore turned himself into a force for Alabama. Across 24 career games (officially only started six of those), he racked up 63 combined tackles, 15.5 of those for loss, ten sacks, three forced fumbles and five passes batted down at the line.
He was sort of a divisive prospect in the 2021 draft, because people were saying he was running kind of hot and cold, yet the physical tools were apparent to anyone watching.
Therefore, he ended up going at the top of day two (38th overall) and the raw numbers are rather underwhelming. He’s started five of 27 career games so far, totaling 69 tackles, five of those for loss, four sacks and three passes knocked down.
However, if he didn’t have to deal with knee inflammation, going back to an injury he suffered as a rookie, he would have gone back-to-back years playing right around 55% of snaps and it certainly stunted his growth.
If you look at the underlying numbers of his rookie season, he quietly was one of the effective interior pass-rushers in the NFL as he amassed 48 total pressures across 396 pass-rush snaps.
That number was actually top-ten among interior D-linemen according to PFF and in terms of pressures-per-opportunity (12.1%), that would move him above Jeffrey Simmons, Cam Heyward, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. While that efficiency did decrease a little bit, he still just hit the 10 percent mark (23 pressures on 229 pass-rush snaps).
Barmore may not be a very multi-faceted pass-rusher at this point, but the one thing he can do regularly is take interior linemen for a ride and place them in the lap of the quarterback. Off that bull rush, he can lift underneath the blocker’s armpit and place them aside, in order to flash in the passer’s face.
New England put him over the center quite a bit, where he would club at the elbow/shoulder of the off-hand (not snapping the ball), in order to get to that edge and power through him. Even with guards sliding over towards him a lot, he could create push on the interior that way.
He’s a major factor in the way the Patriots want to crush the pocket and take away space for quarterbacks to navigate back there. Plus, he brings a pretty nice club-rip combo, in order to win across the face of blockers if that gap next to him is free at times, and when he was looped outside, you saw some ability to corner his rushes on an angle.
A big reason why Barmore was labeled “inconsistent” coming out of Alabama was due to how many different assignments he was given along the D-line and in particular his involvement in run-fits. He would be asked to stack-and-shed single blockers or two-gap while penetrating at a lesser degree.
However, that is also part of his value for Bill Belichick and company, with how versatile he can be in that regard. So far, he’s spent 19.1% of snaps in the A-gap, 48.3% in the B-gap and 32.3% over the tackle through his two years in New England (according to PFF).
This young man packs a ton of shock in his hands to bench-press offensive linemen and control the line of scrimmage in the run game. He would routinely be in shaded alignments originally, but step towards the center of blocks and defend that gap-and-half.
If tackles try to seal or hinge-block against him on the backside as a B-gap defender, he catches them in some vulnerable positions trying to pivot their base around him and tosses them to the turf as a result of that.
Against wide zone concepts, his lateral mobility can really shine. He can keep his shoulders parallel to the line of scrimmage as he tracks the ball carrier, and then he packs the force to pull blockers off himself as he falls back a gap when the back tries to cut it up behind him.
Even if the offense is able to execute combos against him, where the angular blocker gets his play-side foot across to cut off the angle, he typically at least squeezes down that created gap front-side of him. Yet, he can slant across the face of blockers and create disruption when allowed to, which separates him from most guys on that Pats front, who are more so space-eaters.
39 of his 69 total tackles so far were labeled as “defensive stops” by PFF, meaning they resulted in a positive play for the defense in relation to the distance by the opposite side on a certain down.
With that being said, he still surprisingly received run defense grades by that same service of just 45.8 and 46.9 respectively and in three of his ten games this past season he was awarded a 50.5 or worse overall in terms of grade. While I personally don’t believe the tape matches those numbers, there are certainly areas of improvement for Barmore.
First of all, he needs to do a better job of mirroring the first step(s) of the O-line and battling around blocks in order to gain leverage on the gap. And the other thing you see is him getting driven backward or torqued to the side significantly by some legit double-teams too often, because he doesn’t anchor against the angular element by dropping that closer knee and reducing his surface area, rather than keeping his pads level.
As I already mentioned, he should certainly work on diversifying his pass-rush portfolio, building off a strong initial chop and pulling off push-pull maneuvers more cleanly. Along with that, getting to a secondary move and keeping the fight coming with his hands will be key in opening up paths toward the quarterbacks for himself.
I’d also like to see better awareness in that facet, particularly with the tackle sliding towards him when he’s lined up over the guard, and taking advantage of already being in the gap basically, by swatting away that hand coming in from the side and winning up the field.
The Patriots' defense quietly finished third in both DVOA and EPA per play in 2022. If they can overcome the lacking presence of Devin McCourty on the back-end and 17th overall pick Christian Gonzalez from Oregon can be that more prototypical boundary corner (allowing those smaller guys they drafted last year to click-and-close on stuff even more aggressively as they flood zones that way), this unit has a chance to be really good yet again.
How dominant they ultimately can be has a lot to do with the development of Barmore in his third season as a pro. He has the potential to be that legit difference-maker up front other than Matt Judon. Combining what he showed already as a rookie with the mental growth that might be coming to counter-run schemes and beat pass-protectors with a more well-rounded toolbox, there’s reason to believe he could create havoc this year.
Barmore ended this past season with PFF grades of 90.8 and 88.4 against division rivals Miami and Buffalo, which could be a sign of things to come. Especially as we might see them returning to a more man-heavy coverage approach, which forces quarterbacks to hold onto the ball longer when you have guys playing sticky.
#4, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland Browns (Linebacker)
Coming to Notre Dame as a 17-year-old three-star recruit in 2017, Owusu-Koramoah basically redshirted his first two years at South Bend (initially based on a decision, then due to a foot injury, which cost him all but two games).
The following two years, he started all 25 contests at the ROVER position for the Irish and worked his way up to first-team All-American accolades, combining for 142 total tackles, 24.5 of those for loss, seven sacks, an interception, seven PBUs, five fumbles forced and four more recovered.
While the slender frame at 6-foot-2, just over 220 pounds, did cause JOK to fall further than he should have, the Browns acquired him at 52nd overall in 2021. Through two years in Cleveland (24 games), he’s put together 146 combined tackles, ten of those for loss, eight PBUs and four fumbles forced.
Owusu-Koramoah showcases the slipperiness to elude or work off blocks, where regularly he gets to the hip of linemen and almost dips underneath them like an edge rusher, not allowing them to fit their hands into his frame. And when tight-ends work up to him, you see him make those guys miss in a phonebooth basically.
Yet, he also doesn’t mind launching his body into a blocker in order to squeeze down a lane, when the ball isn’t coming his way and with his 33-inch arms, he can press off guys late, in order to join the party.
He back-doors combo-blocks, going around the linemen about to take over the first-level defender and eliminating the possibility of the second blocker supposed to peel off towards him being able to put hands on him.
That certainly creates a risk to hit that lane toward the front side, but he can also create negative plays for the offense. According to PlayerProfiler.com, his number of stuffed runs (resulting in zero or negative yards) shot up from just three all the way to 16 this past season, which put him in the top ten among NFL off-ball linebackers, despite only playing in 11 games.
JOK provides tremendous range on the second level, where he can be stacked up over the guard, with a tight-end outside of him and the back flanked that way, yet he still is able to chase fly sweeps out of bounds for limited yardage if the edge isn’t set properly by the cornerback.
It regularly shows up when scraping from the backside of wide zone and beating even centers across their face, yet he can stop his momentum and fall back a gap exceptionally well as he sees the back cut it up behind him.
OK cut down his missed-tackle rate from 17.4 to 10.3% last season. What he can provide blitzing off the edge, whether it’s wrapping around a puller coming to his side or chasing down the ball from the backside, in order to create problems in the offensive backfield, can be a major plus thanks to his speed and ability to bend.
Looking at the raw coverage numbers provided by pro-football-reference.com, JOK was far less effective in year two than as a rookie, allowing double the yardage total (306 vs. 141) on basically the same number of targets (39 vs. 38), and so did the passer rating (132.1 vs. 70.2).
However, PFF would tell us his coverage grade actually improved (73.4 vs. 67.4). If you check the tape, there’s some context that needs to be taken into account, such as a touchdown to the fullback being put on him, where he was out-leveraged due to having to fill the run on third-and-inches against the Bucs.
You really like his ability to gain ground in his hook drops horizontally and/or vertically, yet then also explode forward and hit with his helmet through the ball as it arrives there for targets on shallow crossers.
The third-year linebacker is fully capable of carrying benders by the tight end on the opposite end of where he’s lined up. And there are some impressive moments where he has to step down against the run-fakes, fully flips his head and runs underneath deep crossers coming in behind him.
Yet if he’s just playing the hook area and the back curls up over the middle, this guy eliminates that distance in a hurry once he sees the quarterback initiate the release and takes away any yards after catch.
Thanks to his ability to cover ground, Cleveland has the ability to be creative in the looks they presented pre-snap, such as being mugged up in the B-gap and then bailing out towards the opposite hook zone. JOK is very patient in man-coverage against RBs, not leaning too much either way against option routes or overrunning stuff out to the flats, but rather using the sideline as a friend, in order to limit those completions to minimal yardage.
With all that being said, Owusu-Koramoah is still certainly undersized for playing on the second level and he has to compensate for it to some degree by “shooting his shot” and trying to meet the blocker before being able to climb up to him. Yet if there is more of an even collision, he typically takes the worst of it.
You see him overrun plays quite regularly, because he didn’t trust the defensive line to at least force a second man to put a hand on them momentarily, rather than directly climbing up to him, which was the case quite regularly and he found himself in about a 100-pound disadvantage.
However, I’d still say he back-doors or scrapes too hard in order for ball carriers with good vision to not spy and take advantage of him getting undisciplined in his run fits.
In terms of coverage, you love the movement skills and length, but JOK could certainly become a little more aggressive with the way he squeezes down routes and attacks the catch-point. Being able to make the tackle on a route short of the sticks on third down is a win for the defense, but letting a running back get a free six yards on first and ten doesn’t set your team up well for ultimately stopping the drive of your opponents.
Ten years ago, JOK wouldn’t have survived at the second level of a defense. Today, his profile makes him a highly intriguing player. Not only can he beat offensive linemen to the spot and has the suddenness to elude them, when they do try to aggressively cut him off, but he also has the length to gain vision on the ball as he’s engaged with tight-ends or a receiver when he’s pulled out to the slot.
With the additions of free agent Dalvin Tomlinson and third-round pick Siaki Ika (Baylor), they have a couple of true shade-nose tackles there now, who can keep JOK clean and decipher through information that split-second longer before coming downhill. Along with that, he can match up with different body types in man coverage and provides tremendous range in zone.
The old coaching staff didn’t tap too much into him as a blitzer in passing situations and Jim Schwartz has traditionally been very much focused on letting his four down-linemen just get up the field. However, I believe the flexibility and closing burst of his could be taken advantage of in that facet.
So far, he’s recorded 16 pressures across 86 pass-rush snaps. A couple of times last year, he would line up in the B-gap and loop all the way across toward the opposite edge, as they slanted the D-line toward his original alignment.
Even if they ultimately peel somebody off the edge and only bring four or allow him to come on delayed blitzes if the back is locked in protection, he has the tools to be a valuable contributor as part of their pressure packages.
#5, Monty Rice, Tennessee Titans (Linebacker)
Despite “only” being a three-star recruit in 2017, Rice was able to emerge among all the top-rated names that make it to Athens on the defensive side of the ball every year. He ended up starting his final two-and-a-half years with the program, racking up just under 200 tackles combined, five passes broken up and three fumbles forced.
So far with the Titans, he’s started ten of 23 games he’s been available for and been a special teams ace, combining for 102 total tackles, but only four of those for loss, no sacks and just two passes defensed. He missed six games as a rookie and then the entire 2022 preseason with a strained achilles.
Arguably the most impressive statistical unit last season and certainly the least appreciated was the Titans' run defense. They finished the year at number in EPA per rush (-0.199) and rushing success rate (33.0%), despite playing with the second-lightest boxes (with six or fewer defenders in the box) among all NFL teams.
David Long Jr. has been integral for the way they’ve excelled in that area, but looking at the numbers when he wasn’t available, I can somewhat understand why they were comfortable with letting that guy move on to Miami.
In the five games Monty Rice stepped in for the injured Long, Tennessee never allowed more than 87 rushing yards and a minuscule 2.56 yards per carry (125 attempts for 320 yards), even if the rushing offenses they faced were mostly on the weaker end.
Rice’s ability to sort through traffic, not get pulled off his landmarks by eye candy and track the ball carrier’s movement looks more like a veteran already, rather than somebody who’s logged just 545 career snaps. He’s tremendous with the way he IDs and approaches combo-blocks – whether he has quickly filled before a guard can peel off to him or the point of attack is a little further out and he needs to display patience, in order to not put his teammates in a tough position.
Plus, he understands how quickly the ball carrier makes his decisions and where the “bubble” (open gap) for the offense will be that they want to hit/aim towards, in order to shut runs down short-yardage runs.
Along with the way he processes that information mentally, he’s sturdy in tight quarters with linemen climbing up to him and trying to cut off his angle, packing a strong punch-and-release. And then he provides tremendous effort in pursuit across the field and on plays strung out towards the perimeter, to force the ball carrier out of bounds, where he can either fight over the top or suddenly dip underneath blockers.
Rice improved his PFF grade from 56.1 to 63.3 last season, in particular cleaning up his tackling in a major way, going from a miss-rate of 18.4% as a rookie to just 4.7% in year two, despite basically doubling his snap total (366 total in 2022). He hits with a square chest, really shoots those hips through contact and is able to create legitimate stopping power that way, rather than dragging guys down from the side or allowing the pile to move.
In terms of the other phase of the game, he’s only been used as a blitzer on 20 on 293 total passing downs for his career so far, which resulted in four pressures. However, I certainly like his ability to run through the back in protection, especially after being mugged up pre-snap, to force quarterbacks to release off their back foot.
More importantly, there’s plenty to like about Rice in coverage. That 4.58 he ran at the combine isn’t totally indicative of his play speed, thinking back to some plays where he’s flying underneath a deep in-cut after being mugged up in the A-gap or carrying guys like Jaylen Waddle at Alabama down the seams almost stride-for-stride. He’s had a few moments like that in the pros as well, where Tennessee was in a double A-gap mug look and bailed out into Tampa-2.
Generally, he does a nice job of identifying threats down the seams or coming in deep across the field and sinking underneath them as the picture clears up and there’s no target in front of him to account for.
In quarters or cover-three with no threat in his hook zones, he gains good width in order to force quarterbacks to turn down out easy routes by the slot receiver, yet he also ended up having to match the running back releasing into the pattern quite a bit, when lined up towards the side with fewer eligibles. He was able to slide in front of those guys on option routes, but also carry them wheeling downfield.
When playing true man-coverage, he was physical and sticky against tight ends on stick or out routes. Looking at the raw numbers, he’s allowed 78.6% of the targets his way to be completed, but only for 8.1 yards per catch and 3.9 of those coming after the grab on average.
He’s tremendous at closing the distance to the intended target just as he sees the quarterback initiate the release, maintaining his leverage by tracking the near-hip and making sure they get that guy to the ground. And when the quarterback leaves the pocket, Rice also typically also showcases a good feel for when to work downhill, without just leaving a target behind him unoccupied.
I’d say generally Rice isn’t the most fluid lateral mover, which is why you see him commit his shoulders too aggressively and overrun (wide) zone runs from the backside in the process. Due to that and not having the smoothest change of direction – unless he’s just gaining depth after taking a couple of steps up towards the line of scrimmage against play-action – there’s a certain delay redirecting against boot action and now he’s a step behind routes designed against the flow.
Tennessee subbed him off the field on third downs and for two-minute drills quite a bit, in favor of bringing on Andrew Adams as this dime backer. Part of that is Mike Vrabel’s New England background, where they use six-DB sets a lot in those situations, but there are also things Rice can improve upon in that regard.
He’s still looking to find the right balance between staying on the initial threat to his area in zone coverage before he can pass it off and still being ready to transition to the secondary target.
He does sort through traffic pretty well already, to not get stuck and attach to who he’s ultimately responsible for, but aiding teammates to take care of their assignments without hindering himself and understanding when to basically transition to man-coverage is something he’s still working on. And I’d like to see him rake through the hands of the intended target more effectively.
The Titans let a former first-round pick in Rashaan Evans walk in free agency this past offseason. They allowed their very underrated duo of David Long Jr. and Zach Cunningham to follow suit this year and now it’ll be up to Monty and Azeez Al-Shaair coming over from San Francisco to replace them.
The latter has been a very effective player in a limited capacity and could be labeled a breakout candidate on a later timeline himself. Rice is actually quite similar to Long Jr. in the way he can decipher through information between the tackles and make up for snap counts against their favor, because of the way he can read the blocking and track the ball carrier simultaneously.
Plus, as his feel for field spacing as a coverage defender improves with extended time on task, I believe he can be a valuable piece in what is a pretty diverse unit in the different looks they like to give opposing quarterbacks.
With a rangier player in Al-Shaair next to him, this LB corp may not see a significant downgrade, despite the fact I’ve always believed the tandem they had there last year was already underrated.
#6, Trent McDuffie, Kansas City Chiefs (Cornerback)
Formerly a top-100 overall recruit in 2019, Trent McDuffie ended up starting all but two of 28 career games at Washington. He showed continuous growth, intercepting two passes and breaking up another ten, along with three forced fumbles, improving from second- to first-team All-Pac-12 as a junior.
The Chiefs used the first of their two first-round picks (along with George Karlaftis) on this very clean prospect, to counter-balance some of their losses in the defensive backfield and McDuffie repaid them with a very solid rookie campaign.
After suffering a hamstring injury starting the season-opener at Arizona – which cost him six weeks – he was a fixture in the lineup throughout the final ten regular season and their three playoff contests.
Overall, he put together 59 combined tackles, ten passes broken up and a couple of forced fumbles during the regular season. Across three playoff contests, he added three more PBUs and a forced fumble, playing all but two snaps total.
What was very impressive about McDuffie as a rookie is that he excelled at two different positions already. After spending 67.9% of snaps out wide during the regular season and playing there full-time in their Divisional playoff game against the Jaguars, he was a full-time nickel from that point on when KC re-gained health among that room.
As a man-defender, he really understands how to play to his leverage and not prematurely commit his hips, initiating contact with receivers just as they get to the opposite shoulder trying to release/break across his face, flattening the angle and making it easier for himself to attach to the hip-pocket of the man.
His eyes are locked on the hips of his guy on vertical stems, without letting him get past the top shoulder and you didn’t really see guys detach from him a whole lot, as he counters hand-swipes instinctively. He’s incredible against curl and deep out routes from the slot, as his hands are attached and he feels the deceleration of the receiver.
His film study to ID splits and understand how opponents are trying to manipulate him with different footwork and using sudden bursts, is apparent. And he doesn’t lose contact or sight of the receiver as that guy transitions to a secondary route or just works back down the stem.
Watching McDuffie in week 15 against the Broncos, he lined up primarily as the boundary corner and stuck with Jerry Jeudy along with completely shutting down the rest of that banged-up WR corp, ultimately allowing two completions for eight yards on six targets, which the six-yard TD included in that, I don’t believe was actually his fault.
Then watching the AFC Championship game against the Bengals (back inside by alignment), that was one of the cleanest tapes I watched for any slot corner for the entire 2022/23 season. He denied multiple routes as a zone-defender, not losing phase really at all in man against Tyler Boyd or Trent Irwin and then making several challenging tackles one-on-one in space.
Back out at corner, McDuffie also showed some pretty impressive football IQ falling underneath routes in cover-three, including a near-interception picking up a corner-post route by the tight-end and turning his head late without initiating premature contact in that Denver game.
So there is certainly potential for deploying this young man on the perimeter more regularly, if they want to put L’Jarius Sneed in the slot for certain matchups or they’re dealing with injuries.
McDuffie excels at reading the eyes of the quarterback as a spot-dropping overhang defender almost. He controls that space between the hashes and numbers, being able to pick up crossers as the pattern is developing, but you’re also playing with fire trying to hit throws behind him, as he floats underneath them. So you’re not going to take advantage of being able to hit targets curling up in his vicinity.
Generally, his eyes toggle between the quarterback and targets around him, and he plays through the mitts of the intended target exceptionally well. They also bailed him out into a deep half from that nickel spot.
During the regular season, he held quarterbacks to 27-of-51 for 253 yards and three touchdowns across 425 coverage snaps, for just 5.0 yards per target (sixth-lowest among all CBs with 40+ targets) and a passer rating of 86.5.
Along with that, he only had two penalties accepted against him and while those two defensive P.I. calls did result in 50 yards, 40 of those came on a tertiary route by Jerry Jeudy in the first Denver game, where the head of any corner would be spinning because of how deep the play went into backyard mode.
Looking at McDuffie’s run defense, he does a nice job of eluding receivers sifting across or just from condensed splits trying to block him. Yet I’ve also seen him be the one to first put his hands on the offensive tackle pulling to the corner on crack-toss plays.
He’s a more than willing contributor in that facet of the game, with the combination of toughness and slippery movement skills to actually make an impact rather than just funneling the ball toward his teammates. Plus, then arrives very low as a tackler and trips up bigger ball carriers effectively, even if he only gets a shot on them from the side. That’s why he missed just two of 46 attempted tackles in year one.
While the way he studies the game and how he anticipates route patterns is apparent, the two types of pass-catchers that can get McDuffie in trouble at times are clever route-runners (who understand how to manipulate what he reads) and bigger bodies (who can shield the ball with their frame, considering he’s a little undersized for matching up against the trendy power slots at 5-foot-11, 195 pounds).
You see some guys nod opposite from where he’s leveraged towards and force the DB to flip the wrong way, turning him around a little bit in the process. McDuffie had arguably his worst performance of the season in the Super Bowl, when he allowed three of five targets his way to be completed for 56 yards and a touchdown, along with missing the same amount of tackles as he did all regular season (two).
The long touchdown to A.J. Brown was on him for example, because he thought he was in control of the (post-)corner route, but lost the ball in the air as he flipped his head around. Being able to locate the pass at the end-phase of coverage reps and not turning around at the last possible moment, to where now he can’t play the ball or man will be key for him down the field.
Finally, his arms being a quarter of an inch short of the 30-mark hurt his ability to wrap around the intended target as the ball arrives there and it limits his tackling radius to some degree.
While McDuffie doesn’t offer an elite physical profile I would say, his football IQ, studying habits, short-area quickness and competitiveness are all tremendous. I believe if they allow those strengths to shine in the slot, it could unlock what defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wants to do even more.
The way he can fit the run and stop bigger ball-carriers in space are a big plus for them on early downs. Once they get to obvious passing situations, he can not only play sticky man-coverage against most receivers, but his spatial awareness and versatility could lend themselves to a lot more switch-calls with him and the safeties (where they change up the picture for opposing quarterbacks post-snap and give the pass-rush a beat longer to get home).
Sprinkled on top of that is the fact I believe they can lean more into this young man as a blitzer, where he did have four pressures across a very limited sample size of 16 pass-rush snaps, but his short-area burst and ability to corral scrambling quarterbacks could make him even more effective as the opportunities increase.
#7, Martin Emerson, Cleveland Browns (Cornerback)
A three-star recruit in 2019, Emerson may have only defended two passes as a part-time starter in his true freshman season, but one of those was a pick-six. Over the next two years, he would be one of the most productive tackling corners in the nation (121 total stops) and even though he didn’t intercept any other passes, he broke up another 14 across those 23 games.
The Browns drafted him in the middle of day two (68th overall) despite already having two first-round corners starting for them and he quickly surpassed another second-rounder in Greedy Williams as the third man in nickel packages (started six of 17 contests).
Playing 782 total snaps, he continued to be a reliable tackler, missing only six of 69 total attempts. He held his own despite being tested extensively (91 targets), breaking up 15 of those and holding opposing to a completion percentage of just 50.5% and a passer rating of 77.6. He was responsible for 490 yards and three touchdowns on the year, spending exactly 500 snaps in coverage.
Averaging those numbers out, Emerson was responsible for just 5.4 yards allowed per target, with an average of 2.4 of those after the catch on average. Those are up there with the elites at the position despite being targeted like some scrub out there. For comparison, Sauce Gardner – who some people say is already the best corner in the league – was at 5.3 yards per.
Emerson also received a PFF coverage grade of 75.1, which ranked 17th among CBs with 300+ coverage snaps and 23rd overall, even if you take away that qualifier. This young man shows a ton of confidence in his athletic skill-set to be patient with sort of catching receivers in soft-press and landing his hands at the near-pec or shoulder of the side that guy is releasing towards.
He effectively shuffles sideways in order to stay in front of receivers releasing inside of him and makes sure to sustain contact with receivers working across the field. If his man does take a wider path initially, Emerson doesn’t overcommit, as he understands that the route probably breaks the other way ultimately and he stays locked in on the hips, ready to plant likewise.
You rarely see him overrun the break-point like many other bigger/taller CBs. Emerson had an outstanding performance against the Bucs’ Mike Evans, where other than a ticky-tack pass interference call (where he read the back-shoulder fade perfectly, but Tom Brady threw the ball out in front and to the ref it might’ve looked like the corner held up the receiver), he allowed the perennial Pro Bowler to catch just one pass for four yards on seven targets.
You already see Emerson not just turn his butt to the sideline and sit there as a flat-defender in cover-two, but disguise what they’re doing by starting in a straight press alignment and then sinking with the guy across from him to a certain depth.
He doesn’t look worried about getting run by in a half-/three-quarter turns playing cover three and gaining ground as receivers are pushing at him, while having the afterburners to not allow separation.
As he’s capping over the top of wideouts in quarters, he doesn’t allow those guys to take advantage of the inside access he has to concede, by not wasting really any time redirecting and eliminating that space.
In terms of run defense, Emerson has a way of swiping by blockers and even though it looks like there’s a ton of force behind his hands when trying to engage with bigger bodies, he’s typically able to fend them off. There were several one-on-one tackles against the back bouncing out to the corner littered all other the way, which makes his missed-tackle rate of just 8.7% even more impressive.
You’re also not going to throw slip or tunnel screens to your wideout when Emerson is in press-man alignment, because he doesn’t wait for the receiver to work back towards the ball.
On a more negative note, Emerson was penalized six times as a rookie, including one defensive holding call and the rest being pass interferences (for 53 total yards). That number and zero interceptions (compared to 15 PBUs) illustrate that he would much rather face-guard receivers and play through their hands, in favor of than taking advantage of opportunities to actively make plays on the ball.
Reading the eyes of the intended target and working on his ability to locate the ball accordingly should be his biggest focus this offseason. Along with that, Emerson could certainly do a better job of squeezing down passing windows in front of him as a deep zone defender and maintaining vision on the receiver pushing at him, to not have to turn nearly 180 degrees in order to drive on the route and disrupt the catch-point on stop/curl routes.
Just in general, he doesn’t have the quickest change of direction trying to stick with those in man. Pro Football Focus gave him a run defense grade of just 51.3 last season. His length to lock out and tackling in space are excellent, but you’d like to see him close down that space to the edge of the line and disengage from blocks more proactively.
At 6-foot-2, 195 pounds with 33-inch arms, Emerson adds the profile of a long, physical corner capable of dictating terms to opposing receivers early on in the route.
He’s maybe not the fluid coverage talent to consistently lock up the twitchier number-one receiver we see the NFL shift towards, but looking at what the Browns asked of him (and in hopes that Denzel Ward can bounce back in 2023) he’s an excellent matchup piece to shadow the more big-bodied types we see in the AFC North (in the 1B category such as Tee Higgins, George Pickens and Rashod Bateman).
Despite being part of a man-heavy scheme at Mississippi State, he adapted quite well to more split-safety coverages in Cleveland. His length makes it tough to throw over his head down in the flats and for a bigger corner, he eats up that cushion he has to give in quarters quicker than you’d anticipate.
Where I believe the breakout could happen is the Browns' defenses getting into a lot more third-and-long situations thanks to the overhauled defensive line setting them up to stop the run more effectively. If he works on locating the football in the air, he could capitalize on those opportunities to come down with the ball himself, while opposing quarterbacks are now aware that they shouldn’t go after him in isolated coverage nearly as much.
#8, Daxton Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (Safety)
Coming to Ann Arbor as a five-star recruit in 2019, Hill started all 20 games in his final two (of three) seasons there and his ball production increased every year. As a junior, he recorded 69 tackles, 4.5 of those for loss, two passes intercepted and 11 more broken up, earning himself first-team All-Big Ten accolades.
His growth as a player combined with elite physical testing (with his 40 and the agility drills between the 87th and 97th percentile respectively) made him the penultimate selection in the first round last year.
However, due to Cincinnati’s safety tandem of Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell staying healthy all year and them having an elite nickel in Mike Hilton (who was healthy for 14 games), Dax played just 163 total snaps on the year (including playoffs).
He played more than six defensive snaps just three times across the 18 games he was available for (19 Week 8 at Cleveland jumping in for CB Chidobe Awuzie late, once actually starting and playing 89% of snaps in place of Mike Hilton at Tampa Bay (Week 15) and then nine snaps in the Wild Card playoff game against Baltimore).
However, now with both safeties having walked since in free agency (both to the NFC South by the way) the workload is about to increase in a major way and even though some of it certainly had to do with the way Cincy’s organization handles contracts. The fact they were comfortable moving on with Hill becoming an integral piece of what they do defensively, is a sign for optimism.
Looking at Hill’s usage as a rookie, 70 of his 130 total snaps on defense were spent in the slot, while 19 of those at right corner all came in Week 8 at Cleveland, when he jumped in late. Even though it was a very limited sample size, the raw coverage numbers as the next-closest defender were pretty abysmal, as he allowed seven of eight targets to be completed for 56 yards and two touchdowns (passer rating of 135.4).
However, re-watching all those 86 snaps in pass defense, I think there’s plenty to get excited about. From his one game with legit extended run playing (largely man coverage) at Tampa Bay, the one thing that was immediately apparent about Hill was how much of an easy mover he is. He has tremendous lateral movement skills to slide in front of the receiver’s release and use his hands to impede their progress, taking control of those reps early.
I saw him absolutely blanket some typically challenging pivots or delayed flat routes on rub concepts. Yet, he also has the flat-out wheels to not let receivers get a step on him releasing full speed off motion. Dax clearly isn’t worried about getting run pastvertically thanks to having that 4.38 speed, being comfortable with sticking to the hip pocket of his man and keeping himself ready for a potential break.
He excels at swatting down and pinning the arm of guys he’s matched up with, to where it affects their route-running significantly without getting flagged in the process (only one defensive penalty for pass interference in the regular season, although six more on special teams).
When somebody can stick with Mark Andrews on a deep over route playing from outside leverage – one of the toughest jobs for any defender – that makes me perk up. Hill also shows nice range and ability to mid-point route patterns as basically an overhang or flat defender in zone coverage. And whether it’s playing top-down or from a trail position in man, he typically eliminates any YAC opportunities.
With that being said, as impressive of an athlete as he is, Hill doesn’t mind sticking his face in the fan at all when it comes to the run game, approaching bigger bodies coming his way and making sure the ball carrier goes backward.
He uses his hands to pro-actively attack the chest of blockers and really locks out with his weight out in front, in order to not allow those guys to take control of him. I saw him set the tone at contact and stay ready to disengage from some of the most physical blocking WRs in the NFL, looking at Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and others.
Dax showcases the football IQ to immediately replace as the slot receiver across from him shoots inside to crack back on a linebacker or safety, as well as take on blockers leading out to the corner when he was lined up on the edge of the box against 12 or 21 personnel.
Along with that, he has a knack for navigating around traffic, dipping away from blockers out on the perimeter and shutting down plays like fly-sweeps and screen passes.
Cincy blitzed him a couple of times off the slot, where his short-area burst and ability to bend as he flattens down the line really stood out. He missed just one of 17 tackling attempts, although it, unfortunately, did result in a (meaningless) touchdown by Russell Gage in that Bucs game I referenced earlier (where he tried to stop the receiver short of the goal-line on a quick in-route off a semi-rub concept). Overall, that resulted in a run defense grade of 71.5 by Pro Football Focus.
Looking at the weaknesses of Hill’s game as basically a true senior (in college), who had just turned 22 years old, at 192 pounds he might have some issues matching up with bigger bodies, who understand how to use their frame to their advantage.
He’s certainly not immune to getting nudged off at the top of the route by crafty wide receivers and allowing some separation that way, in particular when they push up the field initially and then plant to get across the grain, as they step into his space.
Plus, he’ll need to be careful about how grabby he gets in order to slow down his guy when playing in trail, which in part is due to how much stack technique he used at Michigan.
While his usage in zone coverage was even more limited to evaluate, the one thing he could improve upon in that regard is the way he finds and attaches to targets late in the play clock (rather than ultimately covering grass in zone coverage, dropping to a spot and locking in on the quarterback as the pattern has developed).
I certainly like the increased aggressiveness Dax showed in the way he approaches blockers. But learning to actually play with leverage and funneling the ball toward his teammates is something he’s still learning. And we have very little proof of him taking the appropriate angles when working up from depth.
Because the tape I could watch on Hill was so limited, I actually went back to the preseason in order to see him at deep safety a few more times. There, we saw him fly around the field with impressive instincts and play-making skills.
Going back to the very first time we saw him on an NFL field against the Cardinals, he had a couple of very impressive moments, separating the tight-end from the ball on a bender driving down from single-high alignment and getting a near-pick in the end-zone blanketing a corner route by the number three in trips.
Plus, the next week he showed nice hands coming up with a diving interception off a tip-drill against the Giants. What has me excited about his prospects as a full-time starter is the versatility to play center-field one snap, but then cover one of the most dangerous receivers of the opposite team man-to-man the very next, when they want to bring pressure.
Now pairing him up with a highly underrated Nick Scott (coming over from the Rams) and another versatile guy who’s played everywhere in Nick Saban’s secondary at Alabama in Jordan Battle, I believe we see DC Lou Anarumo continue to cook. He can muddy the picture and use his guys on the back-end in creative ways.
The most promising of those is Hill, who other than raw size has the complete package and I didn’t think we saw any lack of physicality. I believe with his explosiveness to flip and cover ground, we could see them lean more into single-high structures.
Other breakout defenders for the 2023 NFL season
EDGE Azeez Ojulari
EDGE David Ojabo
EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
IDL Devonte Wyatt
IDL Travis Jones
LB Brian Asamoah II
LB Nakobe Dean
CB Cam Taylor-Britt
CB Derek Stingley Jr.
CB Cobie Durant
SAF Nick Cross
SAF Quentin Lake
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