NFL: Top 5 MVP Candidates at Mid-Season

One of the most frequent conversations during an NFL season is which players are deserving of the league’s most prestigious individual award; the Most Valuable Player Award. This year is no different, as speculation has abounded since the first week of the season as to who is in position to become the 2015 NFL MVP.Since Giants outside linebacker Lawrence Taylor won the award in 1986 after a transcendant season, the next thirty winners of the MVP have all been either quarterbacks or running backs, with 7 of the last 8 being passers. This is now a quarterback driven league, and thus that trend is reflected in this list. Without further ado, here are the front-runners as we hit the mid-way point of the season.

#6 Honourable Mentions

Rob Gronkowski – The Patriots’ All-Pro Tight End is the most impressive and unplayable offensive weapon in the NFL, and is on pace for 91 receptions, 1,476 yards and 16 touchdowns. There are two problems with Gronkowski as a legitimate MVP candidate. The first is that those numbers are comparable to 2011 when Gronkowski had 90 receptions for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns, and he didn’t get a single vote in the MVP ballot. The second is that if Gronkowski does put up those numbers, then Tom Brady is going to have even better numbers and he’ll end up getting the award anyway. Gronk has a much better shot at the Offensive Player of the Year Award.

Todd Gurley – If it’s not a quarterback, the MVP usually goes to a running back and Todd Gurley is the best of the bunch this season. Despite being a rookie and despite coming off ACL surgery, the Rams’ back has rushed for at least 128 yards in each of his last four games. He is averaging 115 yards per game despite only recoridng 9 yards of rushing in his first game back from injury against the Steelers. That’s 25 yards per game more than the next active player, who happens to be 2012 NFL MVP Adrian Peterson. If he keeps up the pace, Gurley will rush for over 1,600 yards this season. With double digit touchdowns and a winning record for the Rams added to that resume, and Gurley could garner some serious consideration.

Devonta Freeman – The Falcons’ running back leads the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and rushing first downs. He’s also second among running backs in receptions (40) and receiving yards. Todd Gurley is hot on his heels but as things stand half way through the season Freeman is the most productive back in the NFL.

Julio Jones – The Falcons’ receiver is on pace for 140 receptions, 1,784 yards and 15 touchdowns. Calvin Johnson had two seasons like that in 2011 and 2012 but didn’t come close to the MVP title. What may work in Jones’ favour is that 140 receptions would be the second most all time in a single season, behind Marvin Harrison’s 143 in 2002. If he could break Harrison’s record, he would have more of a chance.

J.J Watt – Last year, J.J Watt got 13 MVP votes but lost to Aaron Rodgers. This year, the Texans’ defensive end has garnered far less attention. However, Watt’s 8.5 sacks are 1 better than the 7 he had recorded by the same time last year. The difference this season is that he hasn’t played any offence and he doesn’t have an 80 yard pick six. Six of Houston’s next 8 opponents for the remainder of the year rank in the bottom half of the NFL in sacks allowed. If Watt can get hot and repeat what he did down the stretch last season, and if Houston can win the AFC South, Watt will start to garner some attention once again.

#5 Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

I originally had Aaron Rodgers at number 2 on this list. Unfortunately for him, last Sunday happened. Against the soul-destroying Broncos defence, Rodgers threw for only 77 yards and could do nothing to prevent a decisive 29-10 loss. He had no-one open all night long and despite staying alive for five or six seconds at a time in the pocket, his teammates couldn’t do what was needed to help him out.

Despite that game, Rodgers still deserves to be mentioned as one of the favourites for the MVP award. Three of his opponents so far, Denver, Seattle and St Louis, are in the top four in the league in scoring defence, each surrendering less than 18 points per game. The other team in that top four, Minnesota, will face off against Rodgers twice before the season is done. Rodgers is facing tough opposition almost every week and he doesn’t have a lot of weapons to help him on offence. Eddie Lacy is allegedly overweight and clearly not running as well as he did in 2014, while top receiver Jordy Nelson was placed on season-ending Injury Reserve before he ever saw the field in the regular season.

But Rodgers is still doing very Aaron Rodgers things. He has the second best quarterback rating in the NFL, the second least interceptions thrown with 2, and he remains in the top 10 in completion percentage. Rodgers is still the most talented quarterback in the league. He’s still only lost one game to the most impressive defence in the NFL. He’s still thrown 15 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions, a ratio only Tom Brady can beat. And he is still going to be a threat to the other men on this list all season long. Because he’s Aaron Rodgers.

#4 Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

When you’re the quarterback of a team that is unbeaten after seven games, (and you’re not named Peyton Manning), you’re doing something right. When you are the quarterback of a 7-0 team whose top two receivers are Ted Ginn and Jericho Cotchery, yet you still dismantle the Legion of Boom in Seattle and general the league’s 4th highest scoring offence, you’re an MVP candidate.

The numbers suggest that Cam doesn’t belong in the MVP conversation. Colin Kaepernick, who just got benched by the 49ers, has more passing yards, fewer interceptions and a better completion percentage than Cam. In fact, he has the worst completion percentage in the league among starting quarterbacks, and he’s in the bottom half of the league for almost every major quarterback statistic.

Don’t be fooled by the low numbers; Cam Newton is playing at an elite level right now. While his passing numbers look pedestrian, his four rushing touchdowns are the fourth most in the league and his 40 yards rushing per game are the most among quarterbacks. He is the Panthers offence right now. He’s the catalyst for their running game and he’s making the passing game worthy of respect with only Greg Olsen and a handful of third string receivers to throw to.

The most important stat is his 7-0 record, and the 11 straight games the Panthers have won in the regular season. If Newton keeps this up all year he’s going to be in the conversation both for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year at season’s end.

#3 Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Carson Palmer is the quarterback of the league’s second highest scoring offence. Everything good that happens for the Cardinals is a direct result of Palmer’s impact on the field. He is the league’s premier deep thrower, averaging a league high 9.18 yards per attempt. His ability to throw deep at any time has backed away the defence enough to allow his running back, Chris Johnson, to be the second highest rusher in the NFL this season.

Because of his propensity to throw the deep ball, it would be logical to assume that Palmer is throwing more interceptions and carry a worse completion rate because of it. However, Palmer’s deep accuracy is so impressive that that hasn’t really been the case. His 64.6% completion rate and 6 interceptions are both around the average for an NFL starter.

With his terrific upside (Palmer’s 20 touchdowns are tied for the league lead along with Tom Brady) and the room he gives for the running game to flourish, this makes Palmer one of the most dangerous players in the National Football League. Arizona are 12-2 with Palmer and 5-6 without dating back to last season. His value to this team cannot be overstated, and this clearly puts him among the favourites for the MVP award.

#2 Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Andy Dalton has always been a middling quarterback. Good enough to not replace, but not good enough to take you deep into the playoffs. He would have occasional bright spots and then fade into a human pick machine in the bright lights of primetime.

Not this year, apparently.

This year’s version of the Red Rifle is unrecognisable when compared to the Andy Dalton of the last four years. His completion percentage, touchdown percentage and yards per attempt are all way above his career best to this point, while his interception percentage is easily the lowest of his career. He looks aggressive, accurate, ruthless and fearless, not words usually associated with Cincinnati’s man under centre. Surrounded by the best talent in his career (Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu), as well as an offensive line that is keeping his pocket clean, Dalton doesn’t look like he’s going to slow down anytime soon.

Having dismantled both Seattle and Buffalo’s stellar defensive units in back to back weeks, Dalton followed that up with an ugly win in Pittsburgh. Throwing two fourth quarter interceptions, I thought that we might be seeing a reversion to the old Andy Dalton; the man who makes back breaking mistakes. Credit to him, though, Dalton bounced back to win that game, and I believe he has now taken the necessary steps to go from pretender to very real MVP candidate.

#1 Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

It’s not even close.

Here is Tom Brady’s stat line through the opening seven games: 2,410 passing yards (2nd in NFL) for an average of 344 passing yards per game (T1st in NFL), 8.34 yards perattempt (4th in NFL), 20 touchdowns (T1st in NFL), 1 interception, a 68.9% completion rate (2nd in NFL), a 115.8 passer rating (1st in NFL) and two rushing touchdowns (T3rd among QBs in NFL).

Brady’s receivers dropped ten passes in week 7 against the Jets, and a handful more on Thursday Night Football last week against the Dolphins. His only interception so far, against the Colts in week 5, came on a perfectly thrown ball that was fumbled into the air by Julian Edelman. The future hall-of-famer’s stat line, as good as it is, could be even better. What’s more, it doesn’t even begin to describe how well Tom Brady is playing.

Brady has torched the New York Jets’ number 1 ranked defence for 355 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions despite the fact that Darrelle Revis et al knew he was going to throw it. The Patriots had only six designed run plays all game, but 54 passing attempts. What is even more impressive is that both touchdowns came in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. He also led the team in rushing with 15 yards and a touchdown. On Thursday Night against a resurgent Miami Dolphins pass rush, Brady once again put up lofty numbers, despite being pressured all night.

Overall, Brady has had three games with a completion percentage over 70% this year. He’s had multiple touchdowns in every game for 20 touchdowns total, and he has had a passer rating of above 100.00 in 6 of 7 games.

Most importantly, he is still unbeaten. Brady is now 7-0 for the second time in his career. He hasn’t lost a meaningful game since November 30th 2014, a week 13 loss to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. At 38 years old, he looks quicker than he has in a decade, moving well in the pocket and firing darts downfield. Behind a rotating and injury-stricken offensive line, this may be Brady’s most impressive season yet; and that is saying something given the future hall-of-famer’s decorated career. He’s throwing a perfect game so far in 2015, and with the march he is on it is going to take something very special to stop Brady picking up his third NFL MVP award.