Giants vs. Padres: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks

The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres open a four-game set at Petco Park on Monday, with the Padres holding a commanding 7-2 edge in the season series. San Diego enters at 69-55, thriving at home with a 38-20 record, while the Giants sit at 60-64 and continue to battle inconsistency on the road.

Robbie Ray takes the mound for San Francisco, looking to steady a club that’s dropped seven of its last 10, while the Padres counter with lefty Nestor Cortes, aiming to extend their divisional cushion. With both clubs chasing postseason positioning, this series carries added weight in the NL West race.

Starting Pitchers

Giants - Robbie Ray (LHP)

Ray has piled up 152 strikeouts in 148 innings with a strong 2.98 ERA. He’s not just eating innings, he’s keeping the Giants in almost every game he starts. Last week, though, the Padres made him work, tagging him for four runs over six frames. Ray knows he’ll need sharper execution this time, especially against a San Diego lineup that’s already proven it can square him up.

Padres - Nestor Cortes (LHP)

Cortes is still finding his footing in a Padres uniform, and his numbers reflect that (5.71 ERA). Still, his last turn against these Giants offered some encouragement. He scattered six hits and limited the damage to just one run while fanning six in 4.2 innings.

The lefty’s deception and cutter-heavy mix can be tough when he’s on, but efficiency has been the missing piece. San Diego would love to see him carry last week’s flashes into a deeper outing here.

Hot Hitters to Watch

Padres - Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis Jr.'s all-around game continues to wreak havoc on opposing teams. He’s hitting .266 with 17 homers, 50 RBIs, and a team-high 24 steals. His knack for scoring runs, 84 on the season, highlights how dangerous he is at getting on base and making things happen.

Giants - Rafael Devers

San Francisco has been light on thunder of late, but Devers has been the centerpiece of San Francisco’s lineup all year, bringing a steady mix of power and patience. He’s batting .257 with 23 home runs and 81 RBIs. If San Francisco is going to hang with the Padres, it’ll likely run through his bat.

Injury Report

Padres:

Jackson Merrill: Day-to-day (undisclosed)
Michael King: 15-Day IL (knee)
Jhony Brito: 60-Day IL (forearm)
Joe Musgrove: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Giants:

Matt Chapman: 10-Day IL (hand)
Jerar Encarnacion: 10-Day IL (hamstring)
Erik Miller: 15-Day IL (elbow)
Tom Murphy: 60-Day IL (back)

Current Odds

Run Line: Giants +1.5 (−186) | Padres −1.5 (+151)
Total: Over 7.5 (−112) | Under 7.5 (−109)
Moneyline: Giants +123 | Padres −150

Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Final Score Guess: Giants 4, Padres 3

Best Bets

Giants +1.5 (−186) - Ray’s current form vs. an offense that just stranded a pile of runners keeps this inside a run, even if San Diego squeaks it out.
Under 7.5 (−109) - PETCO run environment + Ray’s run prevention + Padres’ recent RISP sputter; both pens live to decide it late.
Lean: Giants ML (+123) - Pure value play on the better starter with plus money, acknowledging Padres’ home edge.

About the author

Shubham Soni is a dedicated baseball journalist at Sportkeeda with a deep passion for Major League Baseball. Specializing in player profiles, in-depth analysis, and trade updates, He provides readers with expert insights and strategic advice to enhance their fantasy sports experience. With a keen focus on player performances, game previews, and betting trends.

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Edited by Krutik Jain

Giants vs. Padres: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 18, 2025