Mets vs. Phillies: Game 4 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks

The Phillies and Mets wrap up their divisional set Thursday night in Philadelphia, with the first-place Phillies (86-60) looking to pad their NL East lead while the Mets (76-70) try to snap a five-game skid and keep faint Wild Card hopes alive.

David Peterson (9-5, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for New York against Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo (13-6, 4.01 ERA), in what marks the 13th meeting between the clubs this season, with the Mets holding a 7-5 edge.

Philadelphia has thrived at Citizens Bank Park with a 48-23 home record, powered by Kyle Schwarber’s 50 homers, while Juan Soto and the Mets’ bats rank among the NL’s top slugging groups but have struggled lately, hitting just .243 over their past 10 games compared to the Phillies’ .290 surge.

Starting Pitchers

Jesus Luzardo – Philadelphia Phillies

Luzardo has been a workhorse for Philadelphia, logging 161.2 innings with a 13-6 record. His 190 strikeouts showcase his swing-and-miss stuff, though a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP highlight bouts of inconsistency. When he locates his fastball and slider combo, he can be dominant, but command lapses have led to high pitch counts and extra baserunners.

David Peterson – New York Mets

Peterson enters with a 9-5 record and a solid 3.72 ERA across 157.1 innings. He isn’t overpowering but keeps hitters off balance with a mix of sinkers and breaking stuff, holding opponents in check while limiting big innings. His 140 strikeouts point to steady effectiveness, and he’s been adamant against left-handed bats, giving the Mets stability in the back end of their rotation.

Hot Hitters to Watch

Juan Soto (Mets)

Soto has been the centerpiece of the Mets’ lineup, pairing power with patience. His .264 average is backed by elite production, 39 home runs, 95 RBIs, and 111 runs scored. Add in 31 steals, and Soto’s all-around game has made him one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball, capable of changing momentum with one swing or one trip on the bases.

Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

Schwarber continues to be the ultimate slugging threat in Philly, with a jaw-dropping 50 homers and 123 RBIs on the season. While his .241 average shows some swing-and-miss risk, his ability to hit for game-breaking power makes him a constant threat in the middle of the order. With 100 runs scored, he’s also been a steady run-producer all year long.

Injury Report

Phillies:

Daniel Robert: 60-Day IL (forearm)
Trea Turner: 10-Day IL (hamstring)
Alec Bohm: 10-Day IL (shoulder)
Zack Wheeler: 60-Day IL (blood clot)
Jordan Romano: 15-Day IL (finger)

Mets:

Luis Torrens: 10-Day IL (forearm)
Tyrone Taylor: 10-Day IL (hamstring)
Frankie Montas: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Jesse Winker: 60-Day IL (back)
Max Kranick: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Dedniel Nunez: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Tylor Megill: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Griffin Canning: 60-Day IL (Achilles)
Danny Young: 60-Day IL (elbow)
A.J. Minter: 60-Day IL (lat)
Nick Madrigal: 60-Day IL (shoulder)
Drew Smith: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Christian Scott: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Current Odds

Run Line:

Mets +1.5 (−176)
Phillies −1.5 (+144)

Total:

Over 8.5 (−104)
Under 8.5 (−117)

Moneyline:

Mets +118
Phillies −143

Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bets:

Phillies Moneyline (−143)
Over 8.5 (−104)
Juan Soto 1+ Base Hit

Final Score: Phillies 5, Mets 4

About the author

Shubham Soni is a dedicated baseball journalist at Sportkeeda with a deep passion for Major League Baseball. Specializing in player profiles, in-depth analysis, and trade updates, He provides readers with expert insights and strategic advice to enhance their fantasy sports experience. With a keen focus on player performances, game previews, and betting trends.

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Edited by Shubham Soni

Mets vs. Phillies: Game 4 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - September 11, 2025