Orioles vs. Guardians: Game 4 prediction, lineups, odds, injuries, and betting picks - July 24, 2025

With the Cleveland Guardians cruising at a dominant 3-0 in this four-game showdown, they stand on the brink of a series sweep over the Orioles. Baltimore, desperate to salvage some pride on their home field, faces a must-win test that will demand everything they’ve got.

As seasoned arms Charlie Morton and Logan Allen take the mound, expect a high-stakes battle where every pitch and swing could rewrite the series narrative. The tension is thick, and the pressure is on; this game promises to be a pivotal moment in a series that’s already been full of drama.

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Starting Pitchers

Charlie Morton (Orioles, RHP)

Charlie Morton’s days of dominance may be behind him, but the strikeout stuff is still alive. He’s racked up 92 Ks in 88.2 innings this season (9.3 K/9) and has cleared 5+ strikeouts in 10 of his last 14 starts.

Against a Guardians lineup that rarely walks and struggles against power pitchers, Morton’s curveball could carve. If he gets through five innings, the over on 4.5 Ks is well within reach, even if the ERA and WHIP say otherwise.

Logan Allen (Guardians, LHP)

Logan Allen is carrying a 6-8 record with a 4.06 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 95.1 innings. He doesn’t overpower hitters, but his ability to pitch deep into games keeps him relevant.

In his last start, he gave up three runs across 5.1 innings against the A’s. With a 1.38 WHIP and modest strikeout rate, Allen relies on command and soft contact, tools that could play well against Baltimore if he avoids early damage.

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Hot Hitters to Watch

Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo torched the Orioles in their last series, going 4-for-9 with a double, a homer, and five RBIs across three games, good for a blistering .444/.455/.889 slash line and a 1.343 OPS.

Despite hitting just .221 on the season, the lefty slugger seems to see Baltimore pitching well, and his recent surge could make him a quiet x-factor in Game 4.

Jordan Westberg

Jordan Westberg has been a solid contributor this season, hitting .257 with 10 home runs and 21 RBIs. His 33 runs scored highlight his ability to get on base and create opportunities, making him a steady presence in the lineup worth watching in the upcoming games.

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Projected Lineups

Orioles (Away Team)

• 2B Jackson Holliday (L)
• 3B Jordan Westburg (R)
• SS Gunnar Henderson (L)
• LF Ramón Laureano (R)
• DH Ryan O’Hearn (L)
• RF Tyler O’Neill (R)
• CF Colton Cowser (L)
• 1B Coby Mayo (R)
• C Jacob Stallings (R)
• SP: Charlie Morton (R) 5-8, 5.58 ERA

Guardians (Home Team)

• LF Steven Kwan (L)
• CF Angel Martinez (S)
• 3B Jose Ramirez (S)
• DH Kyle Manzardo (L)
• 1B Carlos Santana (S)
• RF Nolan Jones (L)
• 2B Daniel Schneemann (L)
• SS Brayan Rocchio (S)
• C Bo Naylor (L)
• SP: Logan Allen (L) 6-8, 4.06 ERA

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Injury Report

Orioles

• Adley Rutschman (oblique) – Nearing return, in Triple-A rehab.
• Ryan Mountcastle (hamstring) – Started rehab, return expected soon.
• Tyler O’Neill (soreness) – Day-to-day.
• Zach Eflin (back) – Activated and starting.

Guardians

• Paul Sewald (shoulder) – 15-day IL.
• Trevor Stephan (elbow) – 60-day IL.
• Lane Thomas (foot) – Out since May, no return date yet.

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Current Odds

Run Line

• Orioles +1.5 (+153)
• Guardians −1.5 (−188)

Total

• Over 9 (−113)
• Under 9 (−107)

Moneyline

• Orioles −101
• Guardians −121

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Best Bets & Prediction

Final Score: Guardians 6, Orioles 2

Top Bets:

1. Guardians Moneyline (−121). Allen’s consistency at home gives Cleveland the edge.
2. Under 9 Total Runs (−107). Despite Morton’s struggles, both pitchers are capable of at least volume innings in tighter conditions.

Parlay: Guardians ML + Under 9, pairs home-field advantage with a likely pitcher’s duel finish.