Padres vs. Mets: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - September 16, 2025

The San Diego Padres are heading to Citi Field to take on the New York Mets in an opener that can set up the playoff landscape. The Mets have been tough at home throughout the season, at 46-29, but a recent skid, 2-8 over their last 10, has them seeking remedies. The Padres, meanwhile, are enjoying a brief hot streak, six wins in their last 10 and having outscored foes by 15 runs.

With the likes of Juan Soto and Brett Baty trying to carry New York's offense and Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill getting the Padres' bats popping, Tuesday night's showdown is ready for some fireworks. The center stage will then be for Michael King and Clay Holmes, whose duel on the mound might well decide which team gets an early jump in this pivotal game.

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Starting Pitchers

Michael King – San Diego Padres

Michael King has owned for the Padres in 2025 with a 4–2 record and 2.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 67 Ks. His mix of off-speed offerings and pinpoint location make him hard to square up, making the Mets' offense face a legitimate test.

Clay Holmes – New York Mets

Clay Holmes has pitched 151 innings for the Mets with an 11–8 record, a 3.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 122 strikeouts. He can rack up the strikeouts but has shown some vulnerability in high-pressure spots, so it will be key to keep Padres' hitters guessing.

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Hot Hitters

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is still a powder keg in the batters' box, the home run and stolen base leader on the team. His aggressive approach and power swing make him hazardous to deal with at all times.

Mets: Juan Soto

Soto has been on fire and reached the 40 home run/30 steal milestone. His disciplined approach and ability to get on base have him as a crucial offensive factor on the Mets.

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Injury Report

Mets:

• Luis Torrens (C): 10-Day IL – Forearm
• Tyrone Taylor (CF): 10-Day IL – Hamstring
• Frankie Montas (SP): 60-Day IL – Elbow
• Jesse Winker (OF): 60-Day IL – Back
• Max Kranick (SP): 60-Day IL – Elbow
• Dedniel Nunez (RP): 60-Day IL – Elbow
• Tylor Megill (SP): 60-Day IL – Elbow
• Griffin Canning (SP): 60-Day IL – Achilles
• Danny Young (RP): 60-Day IL – Elbow
• A.J. Minter (RP): 60-Day IL – Lat
• Nick Madrigal (INF): 60-Day IL – Shoulder
• Drew Smith (RP): 60-Day IL – Elbow
• Christian Scott (RP): 60-Day IL – Elbow

Padres:

• David Morgan (RP): 15-Day IL – Shoulder
• Nestor Cortes (SP): 15-Day IL – Elbow
• Jason Adam (RP): 15-Day IL – Quadricep
• Xander Bogaerts (SS): 10-Day IL – Foot
• Jhony Brito (SP): 60-Day IL – Forearm
• Joe Musgrove (SP): 60-Day IL – Elbow

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Current Odds

Moneyline:

• Padres: –107
• Mets: –113

Run Line:

• Padres –1.5 (+148)
• Mets +1.5 (–181)

Total Over/Under:

• Over 8 (–117)
• Under 8 (–103)

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Prediction & Best Bets

Best Bets:

• Moneyline: Padres –107
• Run Line: Padres –1.5 (+148)
• Total: Over 8 (–117)

Prediction: Padres 6, Mets 4