Padres vs. Mets: Game 3 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - September 18, 2025

The Padres and Mets meet Thursday afternoon at Citi Field in the rubber match of their three-game series, both clubs hanging in hope for the playoffs.

The Padres enter with an 83-69 record, tied with second place in the NL West and seeking a wild-card spot, while the New York Mets are 78-74 and have labored late in the season despite playing solidly at home.

Randy Vasquez will oppose the ball for the Padres from rookie Jonah Tong, and with San Diego up 4-1 in the season series, the Mets will have to rely on their offense to spark in order not to endure another costly loss.

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Starting Pitchers

Randy Vasquez - Padres

Vasquez is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 71 Ks in 123.1 IP. He gets hitters guessing with weak contact and smart pitching, and he's tough to beat even without being overpowering.

Jonah Tong - Mets

Tong has been struggling in 2025, posting a 1-2 record with an 8.49 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and 13 Ks in 11.2 IP. Issues with control and hard contact have saddled him, so he'll need to be sharp to contain the Padres' explosive offense.

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Hot Hitters

Manny Machado - Padres

Machado has been San Diego's chief source of offense, hitting .279 with 26 home runs, 92 RBIs, 86 runs, and 14 steals in 2025. He possesses power and speed and is dangerous under any circumstance, and is the center of the Padres' offense.

Pete Alonso - Mets

Alonso leads the Mets with a .270 average, 36 home runs, 119 RBIs, and 80 runs. While he is no base-stealing threat, his power and consistency drive New York's offense, especially in the clutch.

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Injury Report

Mets

• Tyrone Taylor (CF) – 10-Day IL, Hamstring
• Frankie Montas (SP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow
• Jesse Winker (OF) – 60-Day IL, Back
• Max Kranick (SP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow
• Dedniel Nunez (RP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow
• Tylor Megill (SP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow
• Griffin Canning (SP) – 60-Day IL, Achilles
• Danny Young (RP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow
• A.J. Minter (RP) – 60-Day IL, Lat
• Nick Madrigal (INF) – 60-Day IL, Shoulder
• Drew Smith (RP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow
• Christian Scott (RP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow

Padres

• David Morgan (RP) – 15-Day IL, Shoulder
• Nestor Cortes (SP) – 15-Day IL, Elbow
• Jason Adam (RP) – 15-Day IL, Quadricep
• Xander Bogaerts (SS) – 10-Day IL, Foot
• Jhony Brito (SP) – 60-Day IL, Forearm
• Joe Musgrove (SP) – 60-Day IL, Elbow

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Current Odds

Run Line:

• Padres +1.5 (−181)
• Padres −1.5 (+148)

Total:

• Over 9 (−108)
• Under 9 (−113)

Moneyline:

• Padres +113
• Mets −137

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Best Bets & Final Prediction

• 1 - Padres +1.5 (−181)
• 2 - Padres Moneyline (+113)
• 3 - Under 9 (−113)

Final score prediction: Mets 4, Padres 3