Padres vs. Pirates: Game 3, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The San Diego Padres are seeking a sweep in their three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Friars are currently on a four-game unbeaten run and have looked like the powerhouse team that they are in their games against the Pirates.

San Diego overwhelmed Pittsburgh in Game 1 with a 9-4 victory and narrowly edged out the hosts in Game 2 with a 2-1 clutch last night. David Bednar's wild pitch on top of the ninth gave away the lead to the Friars as Fernando Tatis Jr. ran home for the go-ahead and eventually, the winning run.

Padres vs Pirates recent form and records

The Friars have won four straight, including a quick sweep of their NL West rival San Francisco Giants. Although clinical at home, San Diego has only produced a 7-7 record on the road.

The Pirates, on the other hand, sit at rock bottom of the NL Central after losing three straight. Pittsburgh owns a dismal -44 run differential and is 3-14 against teams above .500 so far.

Players to watch

Starting pitchers

SD: Stephen Kolek (0-0, 0.00 ERA), PIT: Andrew Heaney (2-2, 2.50 ERA, 31 K)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Veteran lefty Andrew Heaney has compiled a respectable stat line to start the 2025 season. The 33-year-old currently holds a 2-2 record with a 2.50 ERA across six starts with 31 strikeouts across 36 innings.

Must-Watch Hitters

San Diego Padres

Boasting one of the most prolific batting orders in the league, the Friars are spoiled when it comes to hitters to pop off in games. Leading the pack is multi-time All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr., who is batting .342/.414/.598 with an OPS of 1.012. The outfielder also leads the team in home runs and RBIs with eight and 18, respectively.

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Padres vs Pirates baseball betting odds

Sunday, 5/4	Money Line	Run Spread	Total Runs
SD	-105	-1.5, +156	O 8.5, -109
PIT	-115	+1.5, -200	U 8.5, -110

Padres vs Pirates expert picks and game prediction

Bookmakers have the Pirates slightly favored in the series-closer at PNC Park. The pitching duel between Stephen Kolek and Andrew Heaney will be one to watch as the former will be making his first MLB start in 42 career games with Heaney certainly being the more favorable starter in the matchup.

Although their counting stats don't pop off immediately, the Padres are in the top five in the league when it comes to batting averages. In addition, San Diego is second-best in all of the majors in ERA at 2.84 and owns the best ERA for bullpen hurlers at 1.79.

Run Line: -1.5, +156

Total Runs: U 8.5, -110

Prediction: SD wins, 4-1

About the author

Daniel Santiago is a journalist who has been reporting on baseball at Sportskeeda since 2022. He was drawn towards the sport after the underlying statistics and the analysis surrounding it grabbed his attention.

Daniel particularly enjoys furnishing reports about historic events in baseball and analyzing the game through a statistic-based outlook, based on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. This is in line with how he enjoyed watching baseball as a pastime. As a writer, he is very particular about cross-checking from reputable sources and doing his due diligence.

He became a lifelong Hideki Matsui fan after his exploits in the 2009 World Series for the New York Yankees. Among the current generation, Daniel's favorites include Shohei Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee. Daniel is a huge follower of Asian baseball and both Ohtani and Lee have been in the top echelon of their respective leagues during their time with the NPB and KBO.

His favorite moment as a baseball fan was the final at-bat of the 2023 World Baseball Classic between Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. He believes there aren't many words to fittingly describe the intensity of the moment.

As an avid sports fan, Daniel watches other sports and Esports when not writing about baseball.

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Edited by Daniel Santiago

Padres vs. Pirates: Game 3, prediction, odds, injuries and picks - May 4, MLB 2025