Padres vs. Yankees: Game 3, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

If not for Devin Williams' meltdown in the series opener, the New York Yankees would be eyeing a sweep of the San Diego Padres when the teams partake in their interleague finale on Wednesday from Yankee Stadium.

New York will hand the ball to Max Fried for his eighth start as the lefty looks to strengthen his Cy Young case. San Diego counters with Dylan Cease, who has yet to hit his stride in 2025.

Padres vs. Yankees recent form and records

San Diego

Even with the Padres just seeing their six-game win streak come to a bitter end after incurring a 12-3 defeat, Mike Shildt's squad remains the best bet in all of baseball. Their 23-12 overall record has added a league-high $881 worth of profit to their supporters' bankrolls.

At one point, most of the return was incurred at home, but the Friars now enter Hump Day's finale a game over .500 on the road and $185 in the black for their backers.

New York

While the Yankees hold a 2.5-game lead atop the AL East standings, their 20-16 record has still proven costly for MLB bettors. Last night's win trimmed a unit off the deficit, but New York will still enter the finale $255 in the red, largely due to going off the board favored in all but five of their 36 games.

Aaron Boone's crew has been its best in front of the Bronx crowd, where they've amassed 12 wins through 20 tries (-$18).

Injuries

San Diego

Mason McCoy SS 10 Day IL - Finger
Jake Cronenworth 2B 10 Day IL - Rib
Logan Gillaspie RP 15 Day IL - Oblique
Bryan Hoeing RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Sean Reynolds RP 15 Day IL - Foot
Yu Darvish SP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Joe Musgrove SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Matt Waldron SP 60 Day IL - Oblique
Jhony Brito RP 60 Day IL - Forearm

New York

Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B Day To Day - Side
Marcus Stroman SP 15 Day IL - Knee
JT Brubaker SP 60 Day IL - Ribs
Jake Cousins RP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Scott Effross RP 15 Day IL - Hamstring
Clayton Beeter SP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Giancarlo Stanton DH 10 Day IL - Elbow
DJ LeMahieu 3B 10 Day IL - Calf
Jonathan Loaisiga RP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Luis Gil SP 60 Day IL - Back
Gerrit Cole SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.61 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 39 hits (3 HR) & 21 ER with a 39:15 K/BB ratio in seven 2025 starts.
Worked 4.0 IP of 3 hit (0 HR) 2 ER ball with 3:3 K/BB ratio last time out vs. Pirates
1-2 with a 6.39 ERA & 38:13 K/BB ratio in 25.1 career IP thrown vs. the Yankees.
0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 13:7 K/BB ratio in 13.0 IP on the road in 2025.

Max Fried (6-0, 1.01 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 31 hits (5 HR) & 5 ER with a 39:11 K/BB ratio in seven 2025 starts.
Worked 7.0 IP of 1 hit (0 HR), 0 ER ball with 6:2 K/BB ratio last time out vs. Tampa Bay.
3-1 with a 2.30 ERA & 23:5 K/BB ratio in 31.1 career IP thrown vs. the Padres.
3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 20:8 K/BB ratio in 24.1 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

San Diego

Jackson Merrill returned to the Padres lineup last night and got right back to raking, going 2-for-4 with a double. Though the lefty has had a much tougher time against southpaws than righties over the course of his career, he's seen Max Fried's stuff very well in limited at-bats against him.

He's slashing .750/.750/.1.250 with a triple and two singles. Most importantly, he didn't go down on strikes in any of his four at-bats, putting his 1+ total bases prop in play at an attractive +155 return.

New York

Aaron Judge is the only Yankees' bat to take Dylan Cease deep and is +180 at DK to do it again today.

However, Paul Goldschmidt lines up as the better investment against San Diego's right-hander, whom he's seen extremely well over six overall plate appearances, going 3-for-5 with a walk and no strikeouts. Entering tonight's finale with hits in four of his last five games, he's 5/1 to hit a home run and +130 to record 2+ bases.

Padres vs. Yankees MLB 2025 Betting Odds

Wednesday 5/7	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
San Diego Padres	+150	+1.5 -142	O 8 -102
New York Yankees	-180	-1.5 +120	U 8 -118

Padres vs. Yankees expert picks and game prediction

Dylan Cease is bound to undergo a heavy dose of positive regression at some point, but it's unlikely to start tonight. The Yankees have crushed right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, slashing .251/.336/.453/.789 with a 125 wRC+.

The money line is inarguably inflated in favor of Max Fried and the Yankees at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the left-hander has been excellent through seven starts. Meanwhile, San Diego's top-ranked bullpen has been severely taxed lately, making the case for laying the heavy chalk with the home team more compelling.

Padres vs. Yankees Prediction: New York Wins 6-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose