Red Sox vs. Nationals: Game 1 prediction, lineup, odds, injuries, and picks - July 4, 2025

The Fourth of July brings more than fireworks to Nationals Park tonight as the Boston Red Sox and the Washington Nationals open a fresh three-game set.

Boston arrives desperate to string wins together in a crowded playoff chase, while Washington’s young core, headlined by the red-hot James Wood, is finally flashing its potential.

With Lucas Giolito and Michael Soroka on the bump, this opener promises a little of everything, power bats, veteran savvy and maybe a spark or two before the fireworks even start.

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Red Sox vs. Nationals: Game 1 Pitcher & Hitter Matchups

Starting Pitchers

Lucas Giolito (Red Sox)

Boston’s mid-rotation veteran has quietly pieced together a solid 2025, entering tonight’s game at 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA, a sharp 1.33 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts over 58.2 innings. While not overpowering, Giolito leans on his four-seam/changeup combo to induce weak contact and limit big innings. He will look to exploit a Nationals lineup that ranks average in slugging against right-handed pitching this season.

Michael Soroka (Nationals)

Once a frontline starter in Atlanta, Soroka has battled through injuries to reclaim a spot in the Nationals’ rotation. In 2025, he’s 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA, a crisp 1.03 WHIP and 64 strikeouts in 59.1 innings. His elite command and ground-ball rate have allowed him to stay competitive and if his sinker is locating, he could frustrate Boston’s lefty-heavy lineup.

Hot Hitters

James Wood (Nationals)

Wood has transformed into Washington’s most feared bat, hitting .294 with 23 home runs, 67 RBIs, and a massive .958 OPS through 87 games. His rare mix of power, discipline and opposite-field pop makes him a constant threat and likely a prime sweeper for betting props and game-breaking moments.

Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox)

Abreu has quietly risen into Boston’s cornerstones with a .261 average, 17 home runs, 48 RBIs, and a .835 OPS over 76 games. A Gold Glove winner and emerging clutch performer, Abreu adds a lethal long-ball dimension the Red Sox desperately needed.

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Projected Lineups

Boston Red Sox (Away Team):

• LF Jarren Duran
• DH Roman Anthony
• 1B Abraham Toro
• C Omar Narvaez
• RF Wilyer Abreu
• SS Trevor Story
• 3B Marcelo Mayer
• 2B David Hamilton
• CF Ceddanne Rafaela
• SP: Lucas Giolito (R) – 4-1, 3.99 ERA

Washington Nationals (Home Team):

• SS CJ Abrams
• LF James Wood
• 2B Luis Garcia
• 1B Nathaniel Lowe
• DH Josh Bell
• 3B Brady House
• RF Daylen Lile
• C Riley Adams
• CF Jacob Young
• SP: Michael Soroka (R) – 3-5, 4.70 ERA

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Injury Report

Red Sox

• Emmanuel Valdez: Left hamstring strain; expected to return mid-July.

Nationals

• Victor Robles: Right knee sprain; day-to-day.

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Current Odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox –111, Nationals –109
• Run Line: Red Sox –1.5 (+143), Nationals +1.5 (–175)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over –116, Under –105)

Best Bets & Prediction

Score Prediction: Red Sox 6, Nationals 4

Top Bets:

1. Red Sox Moneyline (–111): Boston has a slight edge with Giolito’s recent form and a more potent lineup.
2. Over 8.5 Runs (–116): Both teams have shown offensive potential, and with pitchers who can be prone to giving up runs, the over is a reasonable play.

Value Parlay: Red Sox moneyline + over 8.5 runs creates a smart combo blending a reliable winner with a strong offensive upside.