Red Sox vs. Yankees: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 21, 2025

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees clash again Thursday night at Yankee Stadium in a prime-time contest that can flip the AL East and Wild Card divisions. Boston is on a three-game losing streak and just 27-34 outside Fenway, while New York is a tough-at-home 37-25 and one of the league's better on-base statistics.

The Yankees turn to Luis Gil, who looks to establish himself after a shaky recent run, as the Red Sox counter with veteran Lucas Giolito in hopes of ending Boston's slump. With the Red Sox holding a 5-1 edge in the season series, the Yankees will look to reverse the momentum on their own home turf.

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Starting Pitchers

Yankees - Luis Gil (RHP)

Gil comes in at 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 14 strikeouts over 14 innings. He went on to defeat his last outing against the Cardinals, allowing one run on four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings of work with four strikeouts. Gil will require pinpoint command and assertive strikeouts to handle the Red Sox offense at Yankee Stadium.

Red Sox - Lucas Giolito (RHP)

Giolito enters this game with an 8-2 mark, 3.63 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP in 106.2 innings of work on the mound in 2025. He most recently pitched against the Marlins and issued a walk while surrendering a single run on seven hits in 6.1 innings of labor, fanning five. The journeyman right-handed starter will try to keep the Yankees' power hitters in check and snap Boston's three-game skid.

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Hot Hitters to Watch

Cody Bellinger - Yankees

Bellinger remains scorching hot for New York with a .272 batting average on 24 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases in 2025. He was on a rampage in Tuesday's 13-3 drubbing of the Rays, collecting 4-for-5 with two homers, three RBIs, and one run scored. His power-hitting skills, coupled with consistency, make him the Yankees' biggest threat in this series.

Jarren Duran - Red Sox

Duran has been Boston's steady spark this season, hitting .261 with 12 home runs, 69 RBIs, and 20 stolen bases. He was steady on Monday, going 1-for-3 with a double and three RBIs in the 6-3 defeat to Baltimore. Expect him to be a big factor in the Red Sox lineup against Gil.

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Injury Report

New York Yankees:

• Brent Headrick – 15-Day IL (forearm)
• Austin Slater – 10-Day IL (hamstring)
• Jonathan Loaisiga – 15-Day IL (back)
• Clarke Schmidt – 60-Day IL (forearm)
• Fernando Cruz – 15-Day IL (oblique)
• Ryan Yarbrough – 15-Day IL (oblique)
• Oswaldo Cabrera – 60-Day IL (ankle)
• Jake Cousins – 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Gerrit Cole – 60-Day IL (elbow)

Boston Red Sox:

• Rob Refsnyder – 10-Day IL (oblique)
• Wilyer Abreu – Day-to-day (calf)
• Luis Guerrero – 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Tanner Houck – 60-Day IL (flexor)
• Hunter Dobbins – 60-Day IL (ACL)
• Marcelo Mayer – 10-Day IL (wrist)
• Liam Hendriks – 60-Day IL (hip)
• Justin Slaten – 60-Day IL (shoulder)
• Josh Winckowski – 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Triston Casas – 60-Day IL (knee)
• Kutter Crawford – 60-Day IL (knee)
• Patrick Sandoval – 60-Day IL (elbow)

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Current Odds

• Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (−176) | Yankees −1.5 (+144)
• Total: Over 8 (−114) | Under 8 (−106)
• Moneyline: Red Sox +122 | Yankees −149

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Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Final Score Guess: Yankees 5, Red Sox 3

Best Bets

1. Yankees Moneyline (-149) - Edge to the deeper slugging profile and home field, with Giolito’s contact management tested by an AL-leading SLG lineup.
2. Under 8 (-106) - Giolito’s run prevention plus a sharper-than-boxscore Gil path (if he lands early strikes) points to a modest total; bullpens can lock it down late.
3. Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases - Form + matchup leverage; any misses in the nitro zone carry.