Red Sox vs. Yankees: Game 3 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - August 23, 2025

The New York Yankees look to snap their three-game home losing streak against the Boston Red Sox. Boston has controlled the season series, leading 7-1, and will send Garrett Crochet to quiet New York's offense.

The Yankees counter with Will Warren to attempt to solidify their rotation and enable their offense to regain the series. With both teams having cornerstone players suited up, timely hitting and early pitching will be the key in establishing the tone of this four-game fight.

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Starting Pitchers

Garrett Crochet (BOS)

Garrett Crochet has been Boston's surprise this season, recording 13-5 with a very stingy 2.43 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 196 strikeouts over 159.1 innings. He delivered a sparkling outing in his last outing against Miami, giving up a solitary run on three hits and a walk over seven innings and punching out eight. His fastball is lightning in a bottle, and he edges his breaking balls to a razor point, making him a nightmare for the opposition and laying the foundation early for Boston.

Will Warren (NYY)

Will Warren steps on the mound with a 7-5 record, 4.25 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 143 strikeouts in 127 innings. Against St. Louis in his previous start, he allowed three runs (a solitary earned run) over 4.2 innings with three strikeouts. Warren must blend his pitches creatively and keep hitters guessing to get by Boston's explosive offense and stay out of an early deficit.

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Hot Hitters

Red Sox: Jarren Duran

Boston's much-needed spark plug this season, Jarren Duran, has batted .259 with 12 home runs, 69 RBIs, 71 runs, and 21 stolen bases. His speed on the bases and ability to get on base consistently make the Yankees' defense work harder, making him an important piece in setting the table and providing scoring opportunities for the Red Sox.

Yankees: Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge still dominates for the Yankees with a .327 average, 40 home runs, 92 runs batted in, 100 runs, and eight steals in 2025. In Tuesday's 13-3 shellacking of the Rays, Judge went 2-for-5 with a solo homer, a walk, and three total runs scored. With his raw power and smart plate discipline, Judge is an ever-present danger, especially in high-leverage situations against Boston pitching.

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Injury Report

Yankees:

• Brent Headrick: 15-Day IL (forearm)
• Austin Slater: 10-Day IL (hamstring)
• Jonathan Loaisiga: 15-Day IL (back)
• Clarke Schmidt: 60-Day IL (forearm)
• Fernando Cruz: 15-Day IL (oblique)
• Ryan Yarbrough: 15-Day IL (oblique)
• Oswaldo Cabrera: 60-Day IL (ankle)
• Jake Cousins: 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Gerrit Cole: 60-Day IL (elbow)

Red Sox:

• Wilyer Abreu: 10-Day IL (calf)
• Rob Refsnyder: 10-Day IL (oblique)
• Luis Guerrero: 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Tanner Houck: 60-Day IL (flexor)
• Hunter Dobbins: 60-Day IL (ACL)
• Marcelo Mayer: 10-Day IL (wrist)
• Liam Hendriks: 60-Day IL (hip)
• Justin Slaten: 60-Day IL (shoulder)
• Josh Winckowski: 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Triston Casas: 60-Day IL (knee)
• Kutter Crawford: 60-Day IL (knee)
• Patrick Sandoval: 60-Day IL (elbow)

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Current Odds:

Run Line:

• Red Sox −1.5 (+129)
• Yankees +1.5 (−157)

Total:

• Over 8 (−113)
• Under 8 (−108)

Moneyline:

• Red Sox −127
• Yankees +104

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Final Score Prediction & Best Bets

Projection: Red Sox 5, Yankees 2

Best Bets:

1. Red Sox Moneyline (−127) – Garrett Crochet’s dominance this season, combined with Boston’s recent success over the Yankees, gives the visitors a clear edge.
2. Under 8.5 (−108) – Both starters, Crochet and Warren, excel at limiting hard contact; expect a pitching duel with fewer scoring bursts.
3. Jarren Duran 1+ RBI – Duran’s consistent clutch hitting and recent form against the Yankees make him a solid small-prop option.