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The stage couldn’t be more dramatic; it’s Game 5 of the ALDS, with everything on the line as the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers square off for a trip to the American League Championship Series.
Both teams have traded blows throughout the series, tying things up at 2-2, and tonight’s do-or-die matchup at T-Mobile Park is shaping up to be a classic.
With both teams turning to their bullpens early in recent games and fatigue starting to show among pitchers, this decisive showdown is a prime spot for home run props.
High-leverage innings, aggressive swings, and the smallest mistakes can become game-changing moments, and tonight’s best bets focus on three sluggers who have the perfect mix of form, matchup, and postseason edge to go deep when it matters most.
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Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
Today’s Three Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
#3. Gleyber Torres (+740)
Torres has been a steady contributor for Detroit this year and supplied a big homer in Game 4. His Statcast season shows solid exit velocity and a respectable barrel rate, and his splits this season suggest he’s not helpless vs. right-handed pitching.
Importantly for this matchup, Kirby is a righty, and Torres has a small but productive career sample against Kirby.
Torres is not the pure power profile Raleigh is, but he’s hot, he’s in the middle of a Tigers lineup that’s swinging with confidence, and at +740, he’s pure long-shot upside that pays very well if he runs into one of Kirby’s mistakes or a tired reliever. Treat it as a very small-unit, high-variance play.
#2. Riley Greene (+491)
Riley Greene has been Detroit’s heartbeat in this postseason run, displaying maturity and power well beyond his years. He’s been hitting the ball with authority all series, recording multi-hit games and delivering crucial extra-base hits in pressure moments.
Greene has top-of-order power, and he unloaded a 454-foot, 111.9-mph exit-velocity blast in Game 4 that swung the series and proved he’s not only locked in but dangerous in high-leverage moments.
His Statcast season metrics back up that raw power; Greene profiles as a hitter who will punish mistakes in the zone, and, because Kirby will be the Game 5 starter, Greene could see favorable matchups against Kirby or early bullpen arms.
#1. Cal Raleigh (+320)
When it comes to October power for the Mariners, there’s one name that stands above the rest: Cal Raleigh, Nicknamed “Big Dumper” for his clutch hitting and sheer strength.
He already homered in this series in Game 3 and, crucially, hit a ton of homers vs. lefties this season, which is important because Detroit’s ace Skubal is a lefty.
Skubal is outstanding with a sub-2.30 ERA on the year and elite K totals, but he’s been tagged for solo homers at times, and Raleigh’s pull/power profile punishes exactly those mistakes.
T-Mobile Park is not the friendliest place for homers overall, so the park knocks Raleigh’s ceiling a touch, but when a 60-HR slugger sees a LHP who leaves one over the plate, the probability of a homer spikes enough that +320 carries genuine value.
