Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 3 including Jackson Chourio, and more for October 11, 2025

Game 5 between the Brewers and Cubs with a spot in the NLCS on the line. The tension couldn’t be higher as both teams have fought tooth and nail through the series, trading momentum with late-inning drama and clutch home runs.

The Brewers return home to a fired-up crowd at American Family Field, hoping their young core and pitching depth can carry them through, while the Cubs enter with one of the hottest lineups in baseball right now.

Expect bats like Michael Busch, Jackson Chourio, and Seiya Suzuki, all riding scorching hot streaks, to play a pivotal role, as one big swing tonight could decide who advances and who goes home.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s Three Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#3. Michael Busch: +350

Michael Busch is absolutely red-hot, and the raw data backs the narrative: Busch has 4 home runs in his last 5 games, producing 6 hits and 4 RBIs over that span, a spike in pure power production you can’t ignore heading into a winner-take-all game.

Busch’s October has shown he’s keyed into pitches he can drive (he launched a solo homer in Game 4), and that approach matters against Milwaukee’s top-to-bottom staff.

If the Brewers miss elevation or leave a heater up, Busch’s swing-and-contact profile turns those mistakes into distance. Given the recent multi-homer burst, +350 is attractive as a short-term form-based play.

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#2. Jackson Chourio: +456

Chourio’s momentum and pure upside are obvious: in his last 6 games, he’s produced an excellent run, and he’s shown the ability to turn up-velocity into center-field power. Remember his 419-ft, 101–104 mph center blast earlier in the series.

His season Statcast profile (high-ish hard-hit %, improving launch-angle profile, and rising barrel share over recent weeks) supports the idea that when he’s on, he creates premium flyballs that can clear fences even in tougher venues.

Chourio had a hamstring scare earlier in the series (he exited a game with tightness and was monitored), which slightly lowers his ceiling if he isn’t 100% for Game 5, but the team has leaned on him and he’s responded with impact swings.

At +456, you’re buying true upside. Chourio can punish a mistake fastball or a tired bullpen arm, but injury risk and slightly lower barrel rate than elite sluggers mean size it small.

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#1. Seiya Suzuki: +437

Suzuki’s current run is one of the more remarkable streaks in baseball, with 7 homers in his last 11 games. Suzuki’s approach is compact, high-contact, and able to drive both heaters and breaking stuff, making him dangerous even when he doesn’t look overwhelmingly aggressive.

Game 5 is at American Family Field (Milwaukee), a park with complicated effects, which can suppress overall run scoring even while turning certain flyballs into homers depending on launch angle and wind.

Suzuki’s recent volume of homers suggests he’ll square up plenty of balls, but +437 prices him as a high-upside medium-to-longshot.