Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 3 including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and more for October 12, 2025

Tonight, the ALCS gets underway with a must-watch showdown between the Seattle Mariners and the Toronto Blue Jays, and the tension couldn’t be higher. Every swing matters, and a single mistake can completely flip momentum around, energize the crowd, and rearrange the story of the series.

Both teams have strong, deep lineups and heavily utilized bullpens, so their starters will likely have short leashes and hitters will be facing more tossable arms more quickly than they would otherwise.

With the stakes as high as they ever have been, the fans are in for a game of explosive offense, clutch hitting, and the kind of big swings that define playoff baseball guaranteed. Tonight is more than the first of three games in a series, it's the first proclamation, and one swing could set the tone for all that follows.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s Five Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+342)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the Blue Jays’ postseason force, turning the ALDS into his personal highlight reel with a grand slam and a two-run shot in back-to-back outings.

He attacks the zone aggressively and has the power to punish any mistake, which matters a lot tonight against Seattle’s Bryce Miller, a pitcher who carried a 5.68 ERA this season.

Miller’s numbers suggest that a mistake or two could be coming, and Vlad is exactly the type of hitter who capitalizes on those mistakes.

At +342, this is a play that mixes recent form with a clear matchup edge, and it’s one you can feel good about if you’re backing a proven postseason slugger.

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#2. Cal Raleigh (+247)

Cal Raleigh turned heads all year by smashing a franchise-record 60 homers in the regular season, and he hasn’t cooled off in October.

The Mariners’ catcher finished the year among the game’s elite power hitters and already added homers in the ALDS, proving he can deliver in high-pressure spots.

Tonight he draws Kevin Gausman, who posted a 3.59 ERA this season, a solid pitcher, but one whose splitter can be effective only if well-located.

Raleigh’s knack for handling offspeed pitches and his willingness to drive anything in the zone make him a major threat. At +247, this is a value bet on a hitter who showed all year that he can change a game with one swing.

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#1. Alejandro Kirk (+690)

Alejandro Kirk has been on an absolute tear: five homers in his last six games, including two multi-homer outings, a streak that’s as hot as you’ll see in the postseason.

His timing and plate control have been exceptional, and he’s been particularly dangerous against right-handed pitching.

Facing Bryce Miller, the same Mariners arm Vlad draws, Kirk has a great chance to keep the streak alive.

At +690, he’s a classic high-upside play: low probability but big payoff if he connects early or finds a friendly matchup in the bullpen later on. If you’re chasing upside tonight, Kirk is the ticket.