Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Top 4 including Jorge Polanco, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and more for October 19, 2025

Tonight’s MLB slate is all about survival and opportunity, with the ALCS Game 6 between the Mariners and Blue Jays set to decide who punches their ticket to the World Series.

Seattle leads the series 3-2, but Toronto has the home crowd, momentum from prior comebacks, and a rookie arm on the mound, creating the perfect storm for high-leverage swings.

When games hang in the balance like this, power becomes king; one mistake pitch can instantly flip the outcome and shift the series narrative. With both lineups stacked and bullpens on watch, tonight’s matchup is tailor-made for bettors hunting home run props, where a single swing could not just win a game, but define October.

Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.

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Today’s Four Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

#4. Jorge Polanco (+538)

Jorge Polanco has quietly become a key postseason contributor for the Seattle Mariners, combining consistent power with timely hitting. In the 2025 regular season, he hit .265 with 26 home runs and 78 RBIs, and he’s carried that into October, posting 3 homers and 8 RBIs in 44 postseason at-bats, including a game-winning hit in the ALDS clincher.

As a switch-hitter facing Toronto’s rookie Trey Yesavage in Game 6, Polanco has the versatility and clutch-track record to capitalize on favorable counts or tired relievers, making him a high-upside longball candidate at +538.

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#3. George Springer (+363)

George Springer comes into Game 6 with elite 2025 stuff; he batted .309 with 32 home runs, 84 RBI and a .959 OPS in the regular season and has carried it over in October with a strong postseason average with several extra-base hits.

Tonight he’ll face Seattle righty Logan Gilbert (6-6, 3.44 ERA), a solid pitcher who has given up one homer in 15 at-bats against Springer, a small sample but telling datapoint considering Gilbert's habits to sometimes leave pitches up.

Springer's history, veteran plate skills, knack for barreling mistakes, and postseason pedigree make him an interesting mid-odds home run value play to reach if he gets a hittable fastball or uns into a tired reliever late.

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#2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+285)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters Game 6 red-hot and back in front of his home crowd at Rogers Centre, where he’s historically thrived. Facing Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert (6-6, 3.44 ERA), Guerrero finds himself in a familiar matchup, he’s 6-for-15 with 2 homers lifetime off Gilbert with strong exit velocity on most of those contacts.

Gilbert’s biggest vulnerability this postseason has come early in counts when he leaves pitches up, and that’s exactly where Guerrero does his damage.

With Toronto needing a power spark to stay alive, Guerrero’s combination of home comfort, red-hot form, and an ideal pitching matchup makes him one of the most realistic longball threats tonight at +285.

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#1. Cal Raleigh (+244)

Cal Raleigh is the clearest repeatable home-run target on tonight’s board. His high average exit velocity, top barrel rate, and repeatable pull-power that turns mistakes into distance.

Raleigh homered in Game 1 of this series and has been a steady force in Seattle’s middle of the order.

Facing Trey Yesavage, a rookie with electric stuff but limited big-league sample, Raleigh’s profile, a right-handed slugger who punishes fastballs over the plate, gives him multiple clear paths to go deep: an early mistake from the rookie, or a tired reliever later who mistakes location.