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The home run parade in Major League Baseball shows no signs of slowing down, and tonight’s May 23 slate brings another tempting collection of power-packed matchups.
With some of the league’s most dangerous bats stepping into hitter-friendly situations, the stage is set for fireworks. Whether it’s Aaron Judge’s league-leading hard-hit metrics or Kyle Schwarber’s power surge over the past week, these top five picks aren’t just riding reputation, they’ve got the numbers and circumstances to back up their chances of going yard tonight.
Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
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Today’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
#5. Dalton Varsho (+330) - Blue Jays @ Rays
Dalton Varsho might not be lighting up the batting average column at .215, but his power metrics tell a different story. With 7 homers and 19 RBIs under his belt this season, Varsho’s bat speed and ability to square up the ball remain a threat.
His 93.6 mph average exit velocity and 46.2% hard-hit rate prove his hitting prowess. Facing Drew Rasmussen, who’s solid but not immune to mistakes, Varsho’s left-handed pop could play big in this matchup.
#4. Cal Raleigh (+260) - Mariners @ Astros
Cal Raleigh has been the Mariners’ most reliable hitter, clubbing 16 home runs with 33 RBIs with a .253 average. Over his last seven games, he’s turned it up a notch, batting .280 with three long balls and a 1.107 OPS.
Raleigh’s 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 37.2% hard-hit rate suggest he’s squaring up consistently. Against Ryan Gusto’s hittable 4.65 ERA, Big Dumper’s left-handed power is set up perfectly for another deep drive.
#3. Kyle Schwarber (+275) - Phillies @ Athletics
Kyle Schwarber’s been locked in at the plate, launching 17 homers and driving in 37 with a .256 average and a hefty .963 OPS. The lefty slugger’s advanced metrics continue to impress with a 93.8 mph average exit velocity and a 42.0% hard-hit rate.
Schwarber has crushed two homers in his last 4 games and now faces lefty Jeffrey Springs, whose 3.91 ERA has shown cracks against power bats. In a matchup that could turn into a fireworks show, Schwarber’s raw muscle and recent surge make him a safe bet.
#2. Cody Bellinger (+270) - Yankees @ Rockies
Cody Bellinger is heating up at the perfect time, batting .257 on the season with eight home runs and 29 RBIs, but it’s his recent stretch that turns heads. Over his last five games, Belli’s hitting a scorching .389 with 3 home runs, 8 RBIs, and a monstrous 1.421 OPS.
Facing Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon, who’s has a shaky 5.68 ERA into hitter-friendly Coors Field, Bellinger’s left-handed stroke should thrive and his barrel is dialed in for another potential blast tonight.
#1. Aaron Judge (+140) - Yankees @ Rockies
Aaron Judge is putting up video-game numbers in 2025, slashing .396 with 16 homers, 44 RBIs, and an OPS north of 1.240. He’s pairing elite contact with jaw-dropping power, evidenced by a 95.7 mph average exit velocity and a mammoth 15.6% barrel rate.
On Friday, he draws Rockies righty Tanner Gordon and the mile-high air of Coors Field, a lethal combination for opposing pitchers. With Judge’s 43.1% hard-hit rate and his knack for punishing mistakes, everything points to the New York captain launching one deep into the Denver sky.
