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Some slates quietly sneak up with homer potential, but today’s board isn’t one of them. The stars are aligned for power bats to feast, with several fly-ball prone pitchers taking the mound and a few hitters entering red-hot stretches.
Whether it’s seasoned sluggers like Kyle Schwarber or streaky threats like Eugenio Suarez, tonight’s matchups feel tailor-made for fireworks. What makes this slate even more interesting is the volume of hitters getting repeat chances in plus matchups.
Fernando Tatis Jr. just left the yard yesterday and draws an even softer spot today, while Byron Buxton and Trent Grisham each get under-the-radar matchups against arms with shaky home run histories. Let’s dive into the five best home run prop bets worth chasing on this packed May 11 slate.
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Note: Odds are set by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. No outcome can be guaranteed when betting on sports.
Today’s 5 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
#1. Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): +295
With 9 homers and a .550 SLG this season, Buxton’s elite power-speed combo is locked in. He faces Giants righty Landen Roupp (4.89 ERA), who’s allowed a homer in 3 of his last 5 starts. Buxton’s 9.9% barrel rate and 44.2% fly ball rate give him a prime shot to go deep today.
#2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres): +180
Tatis homered yesterday and draws another exploitable matchup today against Rockies starter German Marquez, who’s struggled to a brutal 9.90 ERA in six starts while surrendering hard contact consistently. Tatis is crushing the ball with a .322 average, 9 homers and a 10.9% barrel rate this season. His expected slugging of .601 and 39.3% hard-hit rate against a pitcher allowing this kind of damage makes him one of today’s top home run bets once again.
#3. Eugenio Suarez (Arizona Diamondbacks): +275
Suarez has found his power stroke lately, homering in back-to-back games against the Dodgers and he’ll look to stay hot against Tony Gonsolin, who carries a 4.09 ERA into this matchup. Despite a modest .211 average, Suarez’s 12 homers on the season and his recent success against this staff make him a high-upside longball target today, especially with his aggressive flyball profile in play.
#4. Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies): +265
Schwarber continues to be one of the most dangerous power bats in the league and with 12 homers already in 2025, he’s in a prime spot today against Luis L. Ortiz and his 5.30 ERA. Schwarber’s excellent 94.2 mph average exit velocity and .559 slugging percentage back up his home run potential and his 44.6% fly ball rate is tailor-made for a longball swing in this matchup.
#5. Trent Grisham (New York Yankees): +450
Grisham’s quietly putting together a solid power stretch with 10 homers this season and he’s a sneaky value play against Luis Severino, who’s sporting a 3.62 ERA for the Athletics. With a .276 average and 20 RBIs, Grisham’s recent form and ability to handle right-handers put him firmly in home run prop consideration today.
