How much will Fast X earn: Early box office projections call for a worse opening than F9

Fast X is about to hit theaters and it is tracking a huge global opening already. But despite the great early reactions to the film, its domestic numbers are not looking so good. Furious 7 had the best domestic opening for the franchise; it made $147 million in the first three days.

The Fate of Furious stands at second best with $98 million, while Fast & Furious 6 opened with $97 million. The numbers, however, started to drop with Hobbs & Shaw, which opened with $60 million. Similarly, F9 brought in $70 million in the pandemic era.

Now with Jason Momoa’s entry, Fast 10 was expected to open much higher, however, its opening might only be similar to Hobbs & Shaw.

Fast X’s international opening will save the film

A still from Fast 10 (Image via Universal)

According to a new report from Deadline, Jason Momoa's latest movie will make just $60 million from North America in its first three days. But it is estimated to bring in around $235 million from the international markets of 81 countries, bringing the global total to around $300 million.

This is the biggest global opening since The Fate of the Furious, which brought in $541 million worldwide in its first three days. It’s also the third biggest opening for a Fast Saga film as Fast X only falls behind Furious 7’s $397.6 million opening.

The international numbers of these films show that Fast 10 doesn’t need to worry about its domestic numbers. It has always been a franchise that has more global appeal, so this upcoming installment won’t be any different either.

The Fast Saga was never a popular franchise in North America

The Fast Saga peaked with Furious 7 as it made $1.5 billion, out of which only $353 million came from the domestic box office. Its follow-up, The Fate of the Furious, only made $226 million domestically and earned over $1.009 billion worldwide. Coming to F9, its global total was $726 million, out of which it only brought in $173 million domestically.

So, with a $60 million opening overhaul, Fast 10 would end up pulling in somewhere between 160-$200 million from North America. But it might still end up turning in a profit by making somewhere between 550-$700 million from the international markets. As always, Fast X doesn’t need to worry about the domestic box office.

Why Fast X needs to get close to $1 billion

The real worry for Universal would be if Fast 10 doesn’t get in the $850 million to $1 billion range as far as its worldwide box office is concerned. The upcoming installment got an estimated budget of around $340 million and a huge marketing campaign that might push the expenses closer to $500 million.

So, that already makes it the most expensive Fast Saga movie, and just a mere $800 million box office intake will not cut it. Vin Diesel recently confirmed talks about a Fast X trilogy. But if the 10th installment only breaks even and doesn’t turn in a major profit, then we could kiss Fast 12 goodbye because part 11 might become the final film of the Fast Saga.

To ensure that Fast 12 ends up happening, Fast 10 needs to produce numbers that are similar to The Fate of the Furious or at least go past the $900 million mark.

Fast 10 arrives on May 19 in theaters near you.