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Surely Group 2 of the 2021 T20 World Cup was meant to be more straightforward than this? With several big teams chucked into Group 1, the supposed group of death, Group 2 seemed like it would be a cakewalk for its two most storied T20I sides - India and Pakistan.
However, things haven't gone to plan for the Men in Blue, who face an uphill task to qualify for the semi-finals. One such factor which must go their way is the result of the Afghanistan vs New Zealand game, scheduled for Sunday, November 7 at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi. Entering Match 40 of the T20 World Cup, all of India, New Zealand and Afghanistan are in the semi-finals race.
A win for the Blackcaps would guarantee safe passage into the final stages, with a blockbuster ICC rematch against England on the horizon. A convincing enough win for Afghanistan could help them leapfrog New Zealand on net run rate and sneak through to the playoffs in unprecedented fashion. A narrow Afghanistan win would put India in prime position to qualify if Virat Kohli's men boost their net run rate against unfancied Namibia in the final game of the Super 12 stage.
Afghanistan have suddenly found themselves with a massive influx of supporters for the New Zealand game, but the Kiwis are consummate professionals across formats. While Kane Williamson and his men will look to keep their cool as they have done so often in the past, India and Afghanistan will be praying for the unexpected to transpire on Sunday.
T20 World Cup 2021: Rashid Khan in the spotlight as Afghanistan seek historic upset
Rashid Khan has always been a favorite among Indian fans, with his involvement in the Indian Premier League the stuff of legend. However, the Afghan spinner has a new horde of supporters willing him on against New Zealand, who have generally struggled against spin in the T20 World Cup.
Rashid is high up on the Super 12's wicket-taking charts, but he has yet to turn in a truly noteworthy performance. He ran through Scotland's middle order after Mujeeb Ur Rahman set him up for success, but most teams have negotiated him with caution. India decided to take a different approach, carting him to all corners of the ground like very few batters have done against Rashid.
Irrespective of whether Mujeeb is adjudged fit for this encounter, Rashid will be the man to watch out for in Abu Dhabi, which has produced increasingly high-scoring encounters in the T20 World Cup. Hamid Hassan and Gulbadin Naib, who have held up the pace department quite well in the recent past, will look to keep their good form going against an in-form New Zealand batting lineup.
Martin Guptill, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Jimmy Neesham and Devon Conway have all played significant knocks in the T20 World Cup, and while Kane Williamson hasn't joined the party yet, the Kiwi skipper's class is bound to shine through at some point. With two solid spinners complementing a well-rounded pace attack even without Lockie Ferguson, New Zealand will be quietly confident of their semi-final chances.
Afghanistan, meanwhile, need to fix a few key issues. Hazratullah Zazai has played some extraordinary shots in the T20 World Cup, but the southpaw has often struggled against quality bowling that limits his scoring areas. He and his opening partner Mohammad Shahzad aren't impossible to bog down, and New Zealand have several canny powerplay operators.
Others like Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Najibullah Zadran have struck form at key intervals, with captain Mohammad Nabi consistently coming up with vital contributions. Naveen-ul-Haq has been expensive at times in the T20 World Cup, but if the wicket isn't as batter-friendly as expected, he could come into the game as well.
Afghanistan are right up there with New Zealand in terms of individual quality, but they don't have a great amount of experience in crunch games. Can the experience and calmness of Nabi help them capitalize on the Kiwis' shortcomings? It certainly isn't impossible; in fact, it's probable.
But it's tough to bet against New Zealand, who have achieved unprecedented ICC success over the last few years and know how to hold their nerve. The Blackcaps will be up against their biggest test yet in the T20 World Cup, and Afghanistan might still pull off a famous victory to send their fans - and India's - into raptures. But New Zealand hold the edge right now, by the barest of margins.
Prediction: New Zealand to win Match 40 of the T20 World Cup
