ICC World Cup 2015: Team-wise quarter-final scenarios

27 games have been played in the 2015 ICC Cricket World Cup. New Zealand and India lead their respective groups, having won all of their respective matches. England has been one of the major disappointments at this World Cup and their quarter-final spot hangs by a thread. Elsewhere, Ireland have really impressed and South Africa, despite losing against India, look like a strong outfit.We take a look at the teams that are likely to make it to the next round, and more importantly, what they need to do to make it to the next round:

#1 New Zealand - Pool A

Current Standing: P: 4, W: 4, L: 0, NRR: +3.589, PTS: 8

Current Rank: 1^st Pool A

Games to play: Afghanistan (8th March), Bangladesh (13th March)

New Zealand are the only team to be sure of a knock-out berth at present. The tournament policy has ensured that irrespective of whether they are first, second, third or fourth in Pool A, they will be playing their quarter-final at home, in Wellington on 21st March.

Since New Zealand have won all their games, and against teams that feature in the Top 8 of ICC’s One-day rankings, its unlikely that they will not top Pool A. With a quarter-final against the team ranked fourth in Pool B assured, and two largely irrelevant games in the offing – this is the time the Kiwis can use to rest a few of the jaded players in a bid to go all out during the business end of the tournament.

#2 Australia - Pool A

Current Standing: P: 4, W: 2, L: 1, N/R: 1, NRR: +1.804, PTS: 5

Current Rank: 3^rd Pool A

Games to play: Sri Lanka (8th March), Scotland (14th March)

A thumping win against Afghanistan has ensured that Michael Clarke’s boys don’t have to worry too much about the quarter-final scenario. Unless something dramatic happens, Australia are certain of a quarter-final place like many other teams in this tournament.

The question though would be about where they finish in Pool A. And it is in that scenario that the clash on 8th March against Sri Lanka becomes so important. If Australia end up losing that game to the Lankans, then Australia will end up at 3^rd spot in all likelihood and risk facing a rampant South African side in the quarters at Adelaide on 20th March. So the primary task for the host nation would be to win both their remaining games.

#3 Sri Lanka - Pool A

Current Standing: P: 4, W: 3, L: 1, NRR: +0.128, PTS: 6

Current Rank: 2^nd Pool A

Games to play: Australia (8th March), Scotland (11th March)

Barring their first game and one of the warm-ups, Sri Lanka have done quite well in the tournament to be second in a highly competitive Pool A. While they may have saved themselves from the 4^th spot by beating England, it is yet to be seen whether they can hold on to their current ranking.

Sri Lanka will be facing Australia at Sydney, and the winner of that game will stake claim to 2^nd spot. But that aside, it’s important that the cricketers from the island nation extract the most out their encounter against Australia, as it is in Sydney that they will be playing their quarter-final on 18th March.

#4 England - Pool A

Current Standing: P: 4, W: 1, L: 3, NRR: -1.201, PTS: 2

Current Rank: 5th Pool A

Games to play: Bangladesh (9th March), Afghanistan (13th March)

After having to face the top teams quite early in their campaign, England are placed in a precarious position in Pool A. Their current position has ensured that they will be playing their final two games with a lot of pressure, as even a single goof-up can bring an end to their quarter-final dreams.

The result of England’s game against Bangladesh is of vital importance in getting to know who would be the fourth team from Pool A to make it to the quarters. A defeat on 9th March would result in an early flight home for Eoin Morgan and his boys.

#5 Bangladesh - Pool A

Current Standing: P: 3, W: 1, L: 1, N/R: 1, NRR: +0.130, PTS: 3

Current Rank: 4th Pool A

Games to play: Scotland (5th March), England (9th March), New Zealand (13th March)

There are two reasons why Bangladesh are at a slightly advantageous position than England currently. Firstly, they have played one less game than England but are at a higher spot. Secondly, and more importantly, Bangladesh do not have a loss against Australia next to their name, and are the recipients of a shared point from that washed out game.

To make it to the quarters as the 4^th ranked team in Pool A, Bangladesh have to beat Scotland and follow it up with a win against either England or New Zealand. While the latter seems a little improbable, considering New Zealand’s dominance at home, a surprise heist against England is quite possible and would be all that is required to send Bangladesh to Melbourne on 19th March.

#6 India - Pool B

Current Standing: P: 3, W: 3, L: 0, NRR: +2.630, PTS: 6

Current Rank: 1^st Pool B

Games to play: West Indies (6th March), Ireland (10th March), Zimbabwe (14th March)

India are well placed to top the group and face the 4^th ranked team from Pool A in the quarter-finals. Considering that two of India’s stiffest games are over, and the well-oiled unit is on a roll, it seems unlikely that the Men in Blue would lose any of their remaining games. This will mean that India either face England or Bangladesh at Melbourne on 19th , two teams that aren’t really game changers on big days.

MS Dhoni’s first priority would be to see out the threat of West Indies and Ireland, and look towards gearing up for the knock-outs.

#7 South Africa - Pool B

Current Standing: P: 4, W: 3, L: 1, NRR: +1.950, PTS: 6

Current Rank: 2^nd Pool B

Games to play: Pakistan (7th March), UAE (12th March)

South Africa seemed to have found their usual self after the defeat to India, as they have gone about rampaging every team that they have come across. They sit pretty at the 2^nd position in Pool B, and are certain of holding on to it, if not the first spot.

In case South Africa win their remaining two games, and India lose two of their remaining three, then there is a chance that South Africa might top Pool B and play their quarter-final against the 4^th team from Pool A.

#8 West Indies - Pool B

Current Standing: P: 4, W: 2, L: 2, NRR: -0.313, PTS: 4

Current Rank: 3^rd Pool B

Games to play: India (6th March), UAE (15th March)

For a moment after their loss to Ireland, it seemed that West Indies would bow out of the World Cup prematurely. As obituaries were being written, Chris Gayle unleashed everything at a Zimbabwean side that couldn’t make out what had hit them. Pakistan too, were abjectly put aside, and the loss against Ireland was compensated for.

West Indies are likely to hold on to their current standing of 3^rd spot in Group B, even if they lose to India on Friday. Thereafter, it is expected that Jason Holder and his team will beat UAE and have the advantage of knowing before hand, what an ideal victory margin should be in order to keep at the third place, since its one of the final games of the league phase.

In the best case scenario, West Indies will finish with 8 points. However, a top two finish is highly improbable.

#9 Pakistan - Pool B

Current Standing:P: 4, W: 2, L: 2, NRR: -0.385, PTS: 4

Current Rank:B4

Games to play:South Africa (7th March), Ireland (15th March)

Although Pakistan are at par with the West Indies as far points and run-rates are concerned, two challenging contests await them. Beating South Africa in the seam friendly conditions of Auckland would be no mean task and Misbah & his men would be knowing that.

Pakistan would look to run South Africa close, and beat Ireland, hoping that the run-rate scenarios are in their favour. Otherwise, they are at risk of bowing out before the quarters.

#10 Ireland - Pool B

Current Standing: P: 3, W: 2, L: 1, NRR: -1.137, PTS: 4

Current Rank: 5^th in Pool B

Games to play: Zimbabwe (7th March), India (10th March), Pakistan (15th March)

The poster boys of the underdogs have three games remaining to prove that the Associates still deserve a shot in 2019. Till now, they have done most things right, especially by beating West Indies straight up. The huge loss against South Africa might have dented their run-rate, but trust their spirit to be intact.

Ireland can afford to lose to India, but have to beat Zimbabwe and Pakistan to qualify for the quarters without any hassles. However, if they do lose to Pakistan, all isn’t over for them as a scenario might arise where all three teams (West Indies, Pakistan and Ireland) will find themselves tied at 6 points each. In such a scenario, West Indies are expected to make it by virtue of a superior run-rate, and it will boil down to how Ireland’s NRR fares as compared to Pakistan’s.

#11 Quarter-Final Matches

Finally, the four quarter-final matches will be the following as per our predictions:

QF1: 18th Mar, Sydney – Sri Lanka (3rd Pool A) vs South Africa (2nd Pool B)

QF2: 19th Mar, Melbourne – England/Bangladesh (4th Pool A) vs India (1st Pool B)

QF3: 20th Mar, Adelaide – Australia (2nd Pool A) vs West Indies (3rd Pool B)

QF4: 21st Mar, Wellington – New Zealand (1st Pool A) vs Pakistan/Ireland (4th Pool B)

Although the semi-finals match-up policy hasn’t been disclosed by the ICC, observing the pattern used in 2011, we can infer the semi-final line-up to be something like this:

SF1: Winner QF1 vs Winner QF4 at Auckland, 24th March.

SF2: Winner QF2 vs Winner QF3 at Sydney, 26th March.