India or England - which team is the favorite heading into Day 5 of ENG vs IND 2025 3rd Test?

As many as 14 wickets fell on a thrilling Day 4 of the third Test between India and England at Lord's on Sunday, July 13. The day began with England resuming their second innings at 2-0. The hosts were bowled out for 192 in 62.1 overs as Indian off-spinner Washington Sundar starred with 4-22. Pacers Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj also chipped in with two wickets each.

For England, only six batters reached double figures, with Joe Root's 40 being the highest, while skipper Ben Stokes contributed 33. Set a target of 193, India got off to an abysmal start, collapsing to 58-4 by stumps on Day 4. Yashasvi Jaiswal perished without scoring, while Karun Nair (14), skipper Shubman Gill (6), and Akash Deep (1) were also dismissed before the close of play on Day 4.

What has been most intriguing about the Lord's Test is the fact that neither team has ended any of the four days with a distinct advantage. And so, as we head into Day 5 at Lord's, it would only be fair to say that neither India nor England can be tagged as favorites to win the contest.

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First hour on Day 5 at Lord's would be defining

If we look at where the Lord's Test stands heading into Day 5, India need 135 runs, while England need six wickets. The match is so finely balanced that neither team can afford a slip-up. It would be safe to assume that whichever side wins the first hour would have the upper hand in the contest.

India would be highly disappointed with their batting performance in the last session on Day 4. Having knocked over England for less than 200 in their second innings, they had an opportunity to dominate the day completely. Instead, they allowed England to make a stunning comeback in the contest.

Of course, the hosts deserve credit for how they bowled. At the same time, it would be fair to conclude that India did not help their own cause. Jaiswal and Nair played shots they would not be proud of. As for skipper Gill, the law of averages caught up with him as he got a good one from Brydon Carse.

The good news for India is that KL Rahul is still out there, batting on a fluent 33. His partnership with Rishabh Pant on Day 5 will most probably make or break the game for Team India. If the duo can add 65-70 runs, then India should be confident of winning the Lord's Test and going 2-1 up in the series. It won't be easy on a tricky Day 5 surface at Lord's.

India would ideally want Pant and Rahul to score as many runs as possible on Day 5, for their lower order could prove susceptible under immense pressure. Nitish Kumar Reddy, Ravindra Jadeja and Sundar are yet to bat. But, the visitors wouldn't want them in with more than 100 runs to get. As for Siraj and Bumrah, they haven't shown any batting form at all, so that's a worry.

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For England, Pant's wicket would be the key

While both Rahul and Pant have been in brilliant form with the willow in the ongoing Test series, England would be keen to knock over the latter early. From the hosts' perspective, the danger with Pant spending a decent amount of time at the crease is that he can bring down the target rather swiftly. Batting won't be easy on Day 5, but Pant knows a thing or two about handling such challenging situations.

Speaking of Rahul, his presence out in the middle will also hurt England's chances. But if they get Pant early, the hosts will have an opening and can then target the lower order. With all due credit to Rahul, unlike Pant, he won't score as freely, so England's bowlers will have greater breathing space.

England's bowlers were brilliant in the last session on Day 4. Monday, however, is a new day, and they need to start all over again. If they can carry on the good work, England would gain the upper hand early in the contest. On the contrary, if they allow India to get away to a solid start, the visitors would benefit significantly. Whoever wins, one thing is for sure - neither team is going to have it easy.