India's World Test Championship final qualification scenario (updated) after South Africa's loss to England

New Zealand v India - Second Test: Day 1
India are fourth on World Test Championship points table right now. (Image: Getty)

India's chances of qualifying for the ICC World Test Championship final received a major boost after England defeated South Africa 2-1 in their three-match series. The Proteas were at the helm of the standings after their win in the first game of the series against England.

The hosts, however, fought back in style and registered two convincing victories against South Africa. They thumped the Proteas by an innings and 85 runs in the second Test before routing them by nine wickets in the final tie.

England's chances of qualifying for next year's ICC World Test Championship final are negligible, but their win over South Africa will help Australia, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan.

WTC points table 2021-23:1) Australia - 70%2) South Africa - 60%3) Sri Lanka - 53.33%4) India - 52.08%5) Pakistan - 51.85%

Speaking of India's qualification scenario, the Indian team are currently placed fourth in the points table. Rohit Sharma and Co. have won six out of their 12 matches in the competition. With four losses and two draws in the other six games, India's points tally stands at 75 points. They have earned 52.08% points so far and have six matches remaining.

India's next series is against Bangladesh away from home. It is a two-match series, which will take place after the ICC T20 World Cup 2022. Soon after, Rohit Sharma and Co. will host Australia for a four-match series at home.

After South Africa's defeat against England, the Indian side now have their fate in their own hands. A team earns 12 points for a win in the WTC. So if India win their remaining six games without any penalties, they will have 68.05% points (147 out of 216).

Points for each match in WTC 2021-23 (ESPNcricinfo) :- Win = 12 pointsDraw = 4 pointsTie = 6 pointsThe WTC Cycle 2021-23 is set to start with India - England 5 match Test series in August, with the WTC Final being played in June 2023.

Assuming India win all matches against Bangladesh and Australia, here's how the other results should go for the Indian team to qualify for the final.

Australia will end below India if they lose 0-4 in their series

How Australia can finish with 68% points

Australia's remaining matches in this WTC cycle: Two vs West Indies (home), three vs South Africa (home), and four vs India (away).

The Aussies are at the top of the points table right now with 70% points. However, things could change quickly if they are whitewashed by the Rohit Sharma-led outfit in their away series.

India's points percentage will be 68.05% if they win their games against Bangladesh and Australia. If Australia lose to India 0-4, their points percentage will be below 68.05% even if they win their home series against West Indies and South Africa.

Pakistan should draw 1 of their 5 matches

How Pakistan can finish with 68% points

Pakistan's remaining matches in this WTC cycle: Three vs England (home), two vs New Zealand (home).

Pakistan are fifth in the points table with 51.85% points. They have five home Test matches remaining in the current World Test Championship cycle. If Babar Azam and Co. win all five games, their points percentage will increase to 69.04%.

Thus, for India to finish above Pakistan, Indian fans will have to hope that Pakistan drop some points. Even if one of their five games ends in a draw or a defeat for Azam's men, they will not be able to overtake India's 68.05% points percentage.

If South Africa lose at least 1 of their remaining matches, they will finish with less than 68.05% points in World Test Championship

How South Africa can finish with 68% points?

South Africa's remaining matches in this WTC cycle: two vs West Indies (home), and three vs Australia (away).

For South Africa to finish with less than 68.05% points, they need to lose one of their remaining five matches in the World Test Championship cycle. They are likely to win the two-match home series against the West Indies, but Australia could trouble them in the away series.

The ICC World Test Championship points table is wide open after England's win against South Africa. It will be exciting to see which two teams make the cut to the final.

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Edited by Ankush Das
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