2022 F1 Miami GP: Preview and Predictions

The F1 Miami GP will be making its debut this weekend in what will be the first of the two trips the sport will make to the United States this year. The 2022 season has had four races so far and the top 2 drivers this season, Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen, have shared the honors with 2 wins each.

Last time around, in Imola, it was Verstappen storming his way back into contention with a grand slam and closing down the championship lead by 17 points. In the first iteration of the Miami GP, the Red Bull driver will be looking to carry on with his form from the last US GP in 2021 where he beat Lewis Hamilton for the win.

Having said that, let's get right to it and jump straight to the preview and predictions for the very first Miami GP.

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2022 F1 Miami GP: Preview and Predictions

What do we expect from the track?

Well, if the initial impressions are anything to go by, the track seems to be very impressive. There are some very long straights that will give rise to slipstreaming opportunities. Unlike some of the other modern-day tracks, however, like the one in Sochi, on this track, you can follow the other car much closer and as a result, it makes it easier to complete overtakes.

Based on the layouts, the long straights mean that the circuit will favor the low-downforce configuration. Teams that are strong in terms of top speed and engine power could have an edge.

Moreover, the track could see the return of the DRS chess game by the drivers during the race. All in all, it's going to be a fun one!

Key Storylines for the Miami GP

#1 Can Mercedes show signs of a comeback?

Mercedes had a rather horrible weekend at Imola. While Russell was able to salvage a fourth position, it was primarily because of what happened to both the Ferrari drivers. The problem for the Brackley-based outfit, though, is its lack of bringing upgrades, caused by its inability to understand the car. Consequently, Mercedes slipped behind McLaren in terms of pace at Imola.

The two biggest factors behind that? Rain and long straights. The two main challenges that will be faced by almost every team this weekend will be rain and long straights. The odds are stacked against Mercedes but if there ever was a race where the team needed to show signs of a comeback then this is the one.

#2 Can Red Bull last the distance?

Red Bull is not out of jail yet with its reliability concerns. The team suffered its first reliability issue with Max Verstappen in the first race. It faced its second issue in the Dutchman's third race. The Miami GP is the fifth race of the season and going by the trend that we have seen so far, this is the time when the team will be the most vulnerable.

Question marks will hang over the fate of the cars throughout the entire weekend. Although the team has stated that it has resolved whatever was the issue that caused the DNF, the proof is in the pudding. For now, we will have to wait it out and see how Red Bull fares at the Miami GP.

#3 Can rain turn everything upside down?

It does appear that the Miami GP might be treated to traditional Miami weather that features rain scattered throughout the day. Rain is expected to make an appearance on Friday and Sunday with a very low possibility of it disrupting on Saturday.

While teams have racked up huge mileage on the simulators, they are going blind into the race weekend. There are various intangibles that cannot be accounted for in a virtual environment. So if we the weekend is disrupted by rain, will we see a few surprise results? Maybe something similar to what Sebastian Vettel did in Monza in 2008? Well, at the moment, we cannot discount anything.

Form Guide

Who is in form?

While both Ferrari and Red Bull have somewhat stolen the march on the entire grid, the team that has caught the eye the most with its relentless improvement week in and week out has been McLaren. The car was nowhere in Bahrain when both the drivers finished outside points.

Ever since, Lando Norris has finished every race inside points and even scored a surprise podium at Imola. Is it fair to say that the Woking-based outfit is now the third-fastest team on the grid? It may be too early to make that statement, but what seems quite obvious is the kind of improvement McLaren has shown this season. The team will be looking to carry on its form from Imola and will try to challenge Mercedes this time around as well.

Who is out of form?

Alpine can't seem to catch a break this season. The team appears to have a decent car capable of scoring consistent points in every race. Since the first race of the season, where both drivers scored points, reliability issues have plagued at least one of their drivers in every subsequent race. Fernando Alonso's power unit gave up in Saudi Arabia, then the Spaniard suffered a hydraulic failure in Australia and finally, in Imola, it was Esteban Ocon's turn to suffer a gearbox failure.

Sure, Alpine is not your pacesetter in the midfield, but the car is capable of strong points every weekend provided it is able to fix the reliability of its cars. Strong points with both drivers have to be the goal for the team after fighting off so many reliability issues this season.

Predictions for the Miami GP

Race winner

The Miami GP circuit features long straights and not that many slow-speed corners. More or less, it favors cars that have better straight-line speed and are better in fast corners. Between Red Bull and Ferrari, the former holds the edge on both the fast corners and in the straight-line speed.

Moreover, there might be an added element of rain that could mix things up. Even that parameter works in favor of Red Bull, which has probably the best wet weather driver in Max Verstappen in its ranks and has just dominated a race weekend disrupted by rain.

Keeping all these factors in mind, should there even be a pick other than Max Verstappen to win the Miami GP? (Yes, that's our pick)

Surprise of the Miami GP weekend

Team

The track for the Miami GP looks eerily similar in characteristics to the track in Jeddah (except for the walls of course). One midfield team that really took a liking to that and qualified in P5 was Alpine.

Alpine seems to have a car that has been decent on all the tracks, however, that car truly came alive in Jeddah. With the circuit in Miami appearing to have similar characteristics, we might see the team get back on form and lead the midfield pack yet again. We could see Alpine tussle it out with the McLaren-Mercedes combo at the front of the midfield.

Driver

Daniel Ricciardo has had a rather tormented start to his season. He was on course for points in Saudi Arabia but lost out due to a DNF. He had a great home race in Australia but the race at Imola was a disaster. His first lap collision with Carlos Sainz pretty much ruled him out of the remainder of the race.

The Australian is not miles away from his teammate Norris, as was the case last year. There's a very thin margin between the two drivers and if he puts things together he could be on for a good result. The Miami GP is a Daniel Ricciardo-kind of race and we're backing the Australian to put things together and score a good result.

Disappointment of the weekend

Team

As we alluded to earlier, the two key challenges that could be in play here for all the teams are the long straights that could lead to porpoising and the colder temperatures because of rain.

Mercedes suffered from both of them at Imola and as a result had a rather horrendous weekend for Lewis Hamilton. The team is not bringing anything extensive this weekend in the form of upgrades as most of them are going to come in Barcelona. With the situation Mercedes is in right now, it's hard to expect the team to put on a better showing. Instead, there might be a very legitimate threat from the likes of McLaren and Alpine this weekend.

Driver

Lance Stroll has not had the best of starts to the season. It might only get worse for him from here onwards as the Canadian was still relatively shielded in Australia after Sebastian Vettel could not get to terms with the Aston Martin.

It, however, does appear that ever since, there's been a switch that was turned on at Imola. Vettel was far more comfortable in the car and the significant gulf between the two drivers was far more visible. With Vettel back in form and rain (his forte) expected to cause a disruption or two, Stroll might be in for a tough ride at the Miami GP.