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F1 has returned to the glitz and glam of Monaco for this week’s race. While being one of the oldest, most prestigious but unforgiving of races on the calendar, the Monaco GP is one of the hardest to make predictions for. The track is highly crash-prone and it normally all comes down to which drivers can extract the most from themselves on the demanding track in the qualifying session. The addition of rain this year is another factor that will make it hard to predict.
Having said that, let’s jump right into it and make our five bold predictions for the Monaco GP.
#1 Rain or no rain, there won't be much action in the Monaco GP
Rain is a rare occurrence during the Monaco GP weekend, which perhaps explains the additional hype around the race this year. Generally, rain is the easiest and fastest way to shake things up and almost always guarantees an action-packed race. Will it do the same in Monaco as well?
We don’t think so. Sure, there might be some incidents on the track, however, that is always a given when it comes to the Monaco GP. However, rain or no rain, the track is infamous for providing processional races due to its narrowness. Even in 2000s, the historic track was deemed too narrow for overtakes; this has to have only gotten worse, since the new cars are much bigger and weigh close to 800 kgs now. This will make it nearly impossible for cars to race side by side at the Circuit de Monaco.
Rain might still help with qualifying speeds on Saturday, which could probably result in some surprise Sunday grid positions, however, we predict that the race itself will be a classic Monaco race.
#2 Charles Leclerc will win the Monaco GP!
Everyone loves to support an underdog and there is no bigger underdog than Charles Leclerc ahead of the Monaco GP. Ever since his debut in F1 in 2018, the Ferrari driver has been unable to have a clean weekend at his home race, so much so that it has been dubbed the 'Monaco GP curse' by F1 fans.
The stakes are higher than ever for the Monegasque to perform since he lost the championship lead to Red Bull’s Max Verstappen after the Spanish GP last weekend. To make matters worse for him, rain has been predicted for this weekend and his title rival is especially good in wet weather conditions.
Despite so many things going against the Ferrari driver, we are placing our bets on him. His car is deemed best-suited to the track this weekend and his four pole positions in the last six races certainly do instil confidence in us. Hence, we are certain that Charles Leclerc will break the 'Monaco GP curse' this weekend.
#3 Aston Martin will make a massive jump up
Aston Martin received widespread criticism from the paddock after it debuted its upgraded AMR22 last weekend in Spain. The car looked suspiciously similar to Red Bull’s RB18, so much so that it is was named the ‘Green Red Bull.’ To make matters worse, it seemed as though the car had taken a step back last week after both the drivers were eliminated in Q1 itself.
However, with the car being new, we believe that the engineers were still learning its ins and outs last weekend, meaning more performance is still to be extracted from the car. Furthermore, Sebastian Vettel’s long run pace in the free practice sessions of the Spanish GP was encouraging; it showed that Aston Martin might possess the best pace in the midfield.
Hence, we’re backing the Silverstone-based team this weekend. We believe that it will take a huge step forward and climb higher in the pecking order in Monaco.
#4 George Russell will beat Lewis Hamilton. Again.
Lewis Hamilton’s five-race losing streak to his new teammate George Russell has been one of the most talked about stories this season. While both the Mercedes drivers maintain a cordial relationship and Russell has been nothing short of extremely respectful towards his legendary teammate, one must wonder just how frustrated the seven-time world champion is. He currently trails the young Briton by 28 points in the 2022 Driver Standings’ and is surely looking to return to his winning ways now that the W13 seems to be more drivable.
However, Hamilton might have to wait a little longer for his comeback, since the track does not seem to suit him. Yes, he has had some spectacular performances here, but he has only achieved three career wins on this iconic track. And that too, with Mercedes’ dominant eight-year run of being one of the fastest, if not the fastest, teams on the grid.
So, for the Monaco GP, we’re predicting that Russell will turn his five-race winning streak into a six-race winning streak over his teammate.
#5 McLaren will struggle to score points
Our last bold prediction is that McLaren will struggle to score points in Monaco this Sunday. Despite its strong form in pre-season testing, the British team is currently having its worst season since 2018. While there have been glimmers of hope in 2022, the car appears to be inherently weak when it comes to slow-speed corners as compared to medium- and fast-speed corners.
As we know, the Monaco GP is nothing if not a track full of slow-speed corners, which is why McLaren might struggle even more this weekend and not score any points.
With this, we wrap up our five bold predictions for the Monaco GP. Only time will tell whether we got anything right.
