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The first day of running in the 2023 Hungarian GP is done and dusted, and what we have in front of us is a very convoluted picture. FP1 was washed out while FP2 saw teams run varied programmes that made it difficult to get a clear read of what they were up to.
With the Hungarian GP trialing a new qualifying format, let's take a look at what fans can expect on Saturday:
#5 Daniel Ricciardo to get outpaced by Yuki Tsunoda
Now, this is not a dig at Ricciardo in any which way but a basic cognizance of the task at hand for the Australian.
He's had next to no running in that AlphaTauri. not much of it in the simulator either, as he was a Red Bull reserve driver. Moreover, losing FP1 was just not ideal for Ricciardo, and it's going to hurt his preparations.
Tsunoda has started the weekend well and is well-versed with the car. Expecting Ricciardo to outpace his teammate at the Hungarian GP will be a bit of wishful thinking, especially as the Australian does not have the miles under him.
Hence, for the very first qualifying session on his return, we're giving Ricciardo some leeway as he gets used to the car under him.
#4 New qualifying format could catch a few off-guard
The new qualifying format that pre-determines what tyres will be used in each qualifying session means there's an added level of jeopardy.
With the hard tyres proving to be a not-so-preferable option for teams during Friday's running and being a mandatory in Q1, there's an added level of variability in the proceedings.
More often than not, when something like that happens, it catches a few teams out, so it will be interesting to see who ends up being a victim of the new format.
#3 Sergio Perez to miss Q3 again
Although there's almost a certain semblance of hope that the Mexican driver gets back to the level at which he's known to perform, the evidence is just not there. The shunt in the Hungarian GP FP1 was unfortunate, but it did not cost him much.
The running in FP2 was not focused on the ultimate one-lap pace. That wasn't the focus for Perez during the session as Red Bull continued to tweak the setup. The reason why we're predicting another Perez disaster is that we're looking at a session where the gaps between teams are going to be smaller.
To add to that, the track layout does not appear to have Red Bull as a runaway favourite. It's going to take something impressive from the drivers to secure pole position at the Hungarian GP.
Looking at the form that Perez has shown this season, it looks highly likely to come from his side. A Q3 appearance looks dicey from the Mexican, and we're predicting a continuation of his qualifying run in Hungary,
#2 McLaren to have at least one driver in top five
McLaren were impressive on Friday and can be confident that the upgrades brought to the car seem to have worked.
Nevertheless, there are still question marks over the relative performance of the package compared to the likes of Mercedes, Red Bull and maybe even Aston Martin.
One thing is for certain, though, and that's the fact that we're riding the McLaren hype train at the moment. Expecting a repeat of qualifying in Austria and Silverstone might be a step too far, but we're backing at least one McLaren driver to qualify inside the top five at the Hungarian GP.
#1 Charles Leclerc to secure pole at Hungarian GP
Well, this should come as a surprise, but hear us out. Ferrari have looked very impressive around the slow-speed sections this season, and the car was very impressive over a lap in FP2, too.
To add to that, Red Bull appear to have not yet extracted everything from the package. If Monaco is any kind of a reference, we're looking at either something special from Max Verstappen to get pole position or a surprise contender.
For the sake of some variability and supporting an underdog, we're predicting Charles Leclerc to secure his second pole position of the season (excluding sprints). We could have an intense battle, but we're backing the Ferrari driver to prevail and secure pole at the Hungarian GP.
