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The 2024 F1 Chinese GP means a return of the circus to the Shanghai international circuit for the first time since the pandemic. The last time we had a race here was in 2019, and things have changed quite a bit since then.
Mercedes is not a dominant force anymore, nor is Lewis Hamilton a reigning world champion. We have lost two world champions in Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen, who retired in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Surprisingly, Fernando Alonso did not race in the 2019 F1 Chinese GP and will be on the grid in 2024. This will be the fifth race of the season, and 2024 is already more or less showing signs of single-team dominance. Red Bull and Max Verstappen have won 3 of the 4 races, and the car is quite a bit quicker than the competition.
Unlike last season, Red Bull has already tasted its first defeat early in the year in Melbourne. What can we expect from the 2024 F1 Chinese GP? Let's take a look.
2024 F1 Chinese GP: Preview
Key Storylines
#1 The driver market
If rumors are true, Carlos Sainz to Mercedes appears to be a done deal. If that does happen, it would be a blow to a few drivers fancying a seat as a Lewis Hamilton replacement.
It would also, however, be one of the bigger dominoes to fall. It remains to be seen where the other pieces fit, however, as there are quite a few seats still up for grabs.
#2 Lack of form for Mercedes
Mercedes was the fourth or fifth fastest car in Japan, but Toto Wolff had a very positive outlook for the team and felt that there were positives to be taken away from how the team performed in Suzuka.
Coming to the F1 Chinese GP allows Mercedes to extract a bit more in terms of performance because the track has regions where the car is better than McLaren.
The F1 Chinese GP should ideally see Mercedes jump McLaren in the pecking order, but the proof is in the pudding, and we're yet to see how it all pans out.
#3 Charles Leclerc vs Carlos Sainz
If we look at the championship standings heading to the F1 Chinese GP, we find Charles Leclerc one point ahead of Carlos Sainz. The point standings are, however, not the correct barometer, as Sainz missed the race in Jeddah. In all three races where Carlos has taken part, he's finished ahead of Charles.
For Leclerc as well, this is a new scenario as he struggles for form in qualifying. The F1 Chinese GP will be crucial to see if Leclerc has closed the gap to Sainz or whether the struggle will continue.
Form Guide
In form
If there is someone in red-hot form right now, then that's Carlos Sainz. The Spaniard has taken over at Ferrari in a manner that is surprising to many. The F1 Chinese GP will be an opportunity for him to continue his podium streak.
Out of form
Lewis Hamilton's lack of form has not only been surprising but a bit shocking, as he finds himself so far down the order in the championship. The Mercedes driver outqualified George Russell for the first time this season in Suzuka and will be hoping to build on it in the F1 Chinese GP.
2024 F1 Chinese GP: Predictions
Who will win the race?
The slow-speed sections are a Red Bull dominance zone in 2024. At the same time, the track is front-limited. When Ferrari won in Melbourne, part of the reason was the layout being front-limited. The same money should be on Max Verstappen making it four wins in 5 races in the F1 Chinese GP, but this could get interesting.
The surprise of the weekend (Team)
Haas took a step back in the pecking order as RB found form in the last couple of races. The F1 Chinese GP is not a track with far too many fast-speed sections, and hence we could see Haas coming back and being a viable contender for points this weekend.
The surprise of the weekend (Driver)
The Daniel Ricciardo discourse has been interesting lately because it's only been 4 races and many have already written obituaries of his career. The Australian has struggled this year, but maybe four races are still early days. This weekend, we're backing Daniel Ricciardo to get one back over Yuki Tsunoda and find form.
Disappointment of the weekend (Team)
McLaren has been a podium contender in the last two races, but the track layout with the slow speed sections and the long straights work against the team. The team will be trying to limit damage this weekend as the track does not suit the car whatsoever.
Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)
Sergio Perez has started the season impressively. He's already achieved three podiums in the first 4 races and is second in the championship. The race in China could prove to be a litmus test for the Mexican because Ferrari is expected to be closer to Red Bull on this track.
If Perez ends up finishing off the podium, then that's something that could possibly be a cause for concern for the driver. We're expecting a Ferrari double podium in Shanghai as the Mexican struggles to keep up.
