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If we go by Max Verstappen's media scrum on Thursday, things are as clear as mud when it comes to his future. The driver remains as noncommittal about his future with Red Bull as he does with his future at Mercedes.
However, the fact that there is a conversation that he could leave Red Bull is something that not many could have conceived this early. It's safe to say that Max Verstappen is weighing his options, and there's no doubt that he's not too sure about the direction he wants to take. If he were, however, looking at a future at Mercedes in 2026, it does not come without its potential pitfalls.
There are a few things that he's potentially gambling on if he decides that Mercedes is going to be his home in 2026. Let's take a look at three notable ones.
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#1 What if the Mercedes power unit is a disaster?
It's almost comical to see the level of acceptance already that Mercedes would have the best power unit in 2026. The reality is that no one can make such a claim. We just know that Toto Wolff is quite confident, and the team has a history of being great when it comes to having the early advantage in a PU regulations change.
But that doesn't automatically mean that Mercedes would have the best power unit. There are going to be 5 different manufacturers next season. It's Mercedes, Ferrari, Honda, Audi, and Red Bull power trains. They might be looking at their numbers on the dyno and making assumptions, but until all of them are out on the track at the same time it is only guesswork at best.
If, for some reason, the Mercedes PU doesn't live up to the hype and is actually a disaster, Max Verstappen has committed himself to a team that's more than likely going to struggle in the near future.
#2 What if McLaren once again produces a better chassis than Mercedes?
One key detail that so many have seemingly missed until now when talking about 2026 is that if Mercedes has the best power unit in F1, then McLaren is also going to have the same one. It's not too long ago that the Woking-based team almost lapped their PU suppliers in Austria.
When it comes to the works team and customers, there's obviously an advantage that Mercedes would hold. At the same time, it's not the same situation as it was in 2014, where the works team got priority in terms of PU specifications. According to regulations, every customer team would be on the same specification, and hence the inherent advantage shrinks.
Max Verstappen has seen Mercedes struggle when it comes to building brilliant aerodynamic cars in this regulation. What if the same weakness carries over to 2026?
#3 A repeat of what happened to Fernando Alonso in 2007
The move from Red Bull to a new team after a stay of more than a decade is a big cultural change. The way Mercedes goes about its racing compared to how the Austrian team does is quite different, and it shows as well.
At Red Bull, every ounce of effort within the team is going towards making Max Verstappen the champion. That's how it operates, and that is how it has been done since 2019.
Mercedes has been more equitable on that front, where the team tries to produce the best possible car and lets the two drivers sort things out amongst themselves. Whether Max Verstappen would be fine with it or not is an interesting question, but at the same time, there would be a level of adaptation that would be needed.
At the same time, he would be teamed up with either Kimi Antonelli, who would be much better prepared in his second F1 season, or George Russell, who has made Mercedes his home and has been spectacular there.
Fernando Alonso was in a similar situation in 2007 when he ended up at McLaren after spending years at Renault as the star attraction. When the expectations didn't match the reality and the teammate was more than a handful, things started unraveling in a manner that was alien to the Spaniard at the time.
It is a major leap of faith that Max Verstappen would be taking, as he'll back himself to be the leader within Mercedes even if he has to establish himself within the squad.
Conclusion (Max Verstappen is gambling on quite a few things)
A move to Mercedes could potentially be the right one for Max Verstappen. He's been at Red Bull for too long now. The team will also have a period of reset, and if he's not interested in being a part of it, then he should be looking to make a move.
With that being said, it's not as clean and cut, and there are far too many gambles that Max Verstappen would be making if he wants to move to Mercedes in 2026. Whether he wants to make that commitment or not is entirely up to him.
