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Ferrari has come out of the gates looking like one of the most impressive cars of the pre-season. The car looks great on the track and the timings aren't bad either (although we can't read much into it). Additionally, the paddock rumors point towards Ferrari's power unit making significant gains compared to last season and could even be the best on the grid.
Before saying anything further, the team should be given props for putting together such an impressive package that everyone on the grid is talking about them. If the team is currently bolstered by the best power unit in the sport, it is the kind of statement one should expect from a team like Ferrari that has all the resources in the world at its disposal.
Although the picture is not yet clear on the pecking order, there are suggestions that Ferrari will be the pre-season favorite for the championship. Now, even if the Italian outfit does come out of the blocks with the fastest car on the grid, we would still be hesitant in naming the Italian outfit as the outright favorite for the title. And to be fair, it's a bit premature to call the team a title favorite right now.
In this piece, we detail the reasons why we feel calling the Prancing Horse 'title-favorites' is premature.
#1 The development curve will be very steep this season
One thing that did seem obvious after the first pre-season test was that there wasn't too big a gap between the teams, unlike the 2014 F1 season where Mercedes was a clear runaway favorite. Mercedes, McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari all had good first pre-season tests. Sure, there is one team that is going to be faster than the other, but early impressions don't indicate either of the teams holding a significant advantage.
This is the legacy of the new regulations as well, as the rules are certainly designed to shrink the gaps in the field. To add to this, even if there was a team that held the advantage, the fast development curve of this new generation of cars means that there will be significant swings of momentum throughout the season. If that is the case, then it's hard to pick an outright favorite at the start of the season. Can the Italian outfit win the title? Sure, they can. So can Mercedes and Red Bull. What aids those two teams more, however, is that they have been winning for the last decade, unlike the team from Maranello.
#2 Ferrari's internal politics and desperation works against them
The secret recipe for winning the title this season is going to be a sustained, focused, and consistent effort. There are going to be ups and downs. There are going to be races where things don't go your way. Teams will be under intense pressure and the pressure will have to be absorbed for 23 races.
Teams like Red Bull and Mercedes have shown the ability to do that. Ferrari, on the other hand, is not in a similar situation. The Italian squad has been starved for success. They haven't won a race since Sebastian Vettel did in 2019. They haven't won a driver's title since Kimi Raikkonen did it 15 years ago. When you're putting in the kind of money that this team is, then the lack of silverware for so long leads to pressure.
It was this pressure that played a role in Ferrari's imploding in 2018 and 2017. To add to this, internal politics plague the Scuderia more than any other team. Mattia Binotto, the current team principal himself, was the result of an internal power struggle between him and Maurizio Arrivabene.
An F1 championship triumph demands a lot more from the teams than what used to be the case a few years back. At this point, it's hard to say if the Italian team can make that leap.
#3 Ferrari's operations are inferior to Mercedes and Red Bull
In a close battle like the one we're building up towards right now, every aspect needs to be perfect. Be it the car, its setup, the repairability of the car if it incurs damage during the weekend, the race strategies, or the most crucial pitstops during the race – it all needs to be proper.
The kind of operational excellence that Mercedes and Red Bull have shown in the last few seasons has been exemplary. It wasn't just the 2021 season when the two teams were on their toes, for the most part, but earlier as well. Who can forget the masterstroke by Mercedes to pit Lewis Hamilton for the second time in Hungary in 2019? Similarly, Red Bull's agility in intense situations has stood out as well.
To add to this, Red Bull is notorious for its dominance in pitstops as the team has won the DHL Fastest Pitstop award for three years in succession. Ferrari, on the other hand, was a distant third in the pitstop awards in 2021 and was even worse in 2020.
Further, when it comes to making the right strategic calls under pressure, the Italian unit is famous for fumbling big time in crunch situations. Red Bull and Mercedes both evidently seem to be levels above the rest of the grid in terms of operational excellence. Can the Prancing Horse claw back the deficit this season? Sure, it can do that, but for now, that is another area where it is behind the top teams.
