3 reasons why Max Verstappen to Mercedes seems to be an eventuality

Max Verstappen has been the talk of the town this season, especially since it became clear that he has been talking to Mercedes for a possible move. The Dutch driver first joined F1 under the Red Bull umbrella with Toro Rosso in 2015.

After getting promoted to the senior team in 2016, he's been a key part of the team. He won his first title with the team in 2021 and has not lost his little until now. The 2025 season, however, does appear to be the one where he might end up giving up the crown.

At the same time, Verstappen's future is up in the air. There's a lack of clarity, as the driver's camp has admitted that he's talking to Mercedes. With Christian Horner being booted out of Red Bull, there have been suggestions that Max is now going to stick to the team. However, it does appear that the Dutch driver's move to Mercedes is almost a certainty now.

#1 Red Bull rebuild is going to take a lot of time

Red Bull has just gotten rid of the man who took the team to 14 titles in 20 years. Like him or hate him, Christian Horner's role in the team becoming successful in F1 is pivotal.

The fact that he's now out of the picture might be a win in the political battle for Jos Verstappen and Helmut Marko, but it does, however, mean that Red Bull faces an uncertain future. No one can be sure what direction the team takes, but it is safe to say that it's not clear-cut in any way.

Max Verstappen has been adamant throughout his career that he would not go to a team to build a project. He has no interest in doing such a thing. On the contrary, he just wants to land in the fastest car and take it from there.

At this moment, if Max Verstappen commits to Red Bull, he would be committing to a project that is arguably something that's the opposite of what he wants to do in his career.

#2 Mercedes power unit should be better than the Red Bull power unit

The 2026 F1 regulations see a new power unit introduced, which would be a more equitable distribution between internal combustion and electric power. Red Bull has made strides for sure with its program, and it would surely continue to do so in the future, but it would be the first power unit that's developed by Red Bull Powertrain.

If the reports are to be believed, and even if we take racing wisdom into account, Mercedes should have a better power unit than Red Bull. With Max Verstappen looking at a team that's on the verge of collapse in the Milton Keynes squad, it would arguably be a better call to take his oars out and go to Mercedes.

#3 If the Max Verstappen-Mercedes deal falls through now, it's not happening again

Arguably, the final and most important point is that we're looking at a scenario where Max Verstappen is talking to Toto Wolff for the second time in two years. Even last season, the Mercedes boss had revealed that there was a conversation between the team and the driver. This season as well, it has become public and has been acknowledged by both parties that there are conversations going on.

While that is true, if Max Verstappen ends up choosing Red Bull over Mercedes this time around, he's looking at a situation where he's turning down Toto Wolff for the second time in two seasons and the third time in his career. After a point, Wolff will not hold out for a Max Verstappen and will start focusing on building a team around George Russell and Kimi Antonelli.

If a Max Verstappen-Mercedes alliance has to happen, it has to happen now, and it would be highly likely that any deference would mean that the deal is off for the foreseeable future.