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Sebastian Vettel is another name that has been added to a rather long "shortlist" of drivers that McLaren is apparently interested in as a replacement for Daniel Ricciardo next season.
While many of his fans have welcomed this new development, as an avid Sebastian Vettel fan, we beg to differ here. Once his current contract is done, we don't see him extending his stay in F1. We, however, expect the four-time world champion to call time on his career and retire from F1. In this feature, we're going to talk about why we feel this is going to happen.
Is he still capable enough to stay in F1?
Now, before we get there, let's answer an even more important question that needs to be addressed first. Is Sebastian Vettel still a capable F1 driver? Well, to answer that question, all we need to do is take a look at some of the key statistics from this season.
Out of the 11 races so far this season, Vettel has raced in 9 of them. Out of these 9 races, his teammate Lance Stroll has had the better of him over a race weekend in only one of these races (2022 F1 Australian GP). That's it, just one! Every other weekend, the German has been on top.
Not only that, Vettel has 15 points to Stroll's three this season which should give you some idea of how good he has been. Having said that, sure, Stroll is not the gold standard of driving in F1 by any means, but he's not a bad driver either. This is the same driver who has multiple podiums to his name. This is the same driver who scored pole position in a Racing Point in the rain in the 2020 F1 Turkish GP.
Stroll deserves to be on the F1 grid and while the hate might even be justified to an extent, he's still a very good driver. Beating him is one thing, but dominating him the way Vettel has done, adds another feather to his cap.
To add to this, just look at some of the drives Vettel has had this season. For example, the masterclass in Imola, a race where Aston Martin was woefully off the pace. Or even Monaco, or Baku, or Silverstone for that matter. These are performances of not only a good driver but of one who has been performing at a very high level. So, to answer the question, is Sebastian Vettel still a capable F1 driver? Yes, he is!
What is Sebastian Vettel's motivation to stay?
With that out of the way, Sebastian Vettel's future ultimately comes down to his motivation to stay in F1. Why would a four-time world champion with more than 50 wins and pole positions want to extend his stay in F1? That is an important question!
Ultimately, it comes down to two of his most obvious passions right now. The first is his ability to drive a Formula 1 car at a very high level. He wants to compete at the front and has repeatedly mentioned that he wants to not only fight for points, but also wants to fight for podiums, wins, and championships.
Sebastian Vettel's second motivation is his newfound love for social activism. He has been very vocal against multiple social issues this season and has even appeared on the British political talk show, Question Hour, concerning the same. Being part of F1 allows Vettel to reach out to the masses and spread the message of environmental sustainability and so much more on a platform that he would not have if he was not a successful F1 driver. When it comes to extending his stay in the sport, this is going to be one of the crucial factors that might need to be kept in mind when he decides on his future.
What are Sebastian Vettel's options for the future?
If Sebastian Vettel does not wish to retire, there are more or less three options that he could have in front of him.
#1 Extend his stay at Aston Martin
Sebastian Vettel's first option is to extend his stay at Aston Martin. The team has shown some level of progress, although not as satisfactory as it needs to be. Moreover, there are huge sums of money making their way into the team from the recent Saudi Arabian investment and that could translate into performance one way or the other.
Vettel could make a commitment to the team based on the amount of investment that is coming. Moreover, lest we forget, there aren't many teams on the F1 grid that will allow the German to continue with his social activism alongside his driving duties. Aston Martin does, and it gives Vettel the motive to turn up on a race weekend and drive the wheels off the car. If he is looking to stay in F1, then Aston Martin is an option.
#2 Move to McLaren
The second option that did open up for Sebastian Vettel recently was at McLaren in place of Daniel Ricciardo. It's no secret that the Australian is not in the best of places on the team. He has not performed to the level he's used to and is getting dominated by Lando Norris in the same car. It's well documented now that McLaren is looking at a replacement for the Australian but has not finalized on anyone.
As a four-time world champion who is not only marketable but is also performing at a very high level this season, Vettel could just be the perfect replacement for Ricciardo in the team. With the German's experience of winning multiple titles and more than 50 races in F1, he could very well be a valuable addition to the team.
#3 Hold out for Mercedes
This is a slight left-field thought, but by the looks of it, there is a possibility of this materializing if Sebastian Vettel plays his cards right. Lewis Hamilton's contract with Mercedes expires at the end of the 2023 F1 season. The Briton will be close to 39 at the time with a highly competitive George Russell breathing down his neck.
At this stage, with all the possible records in the bag for Hamilton, will he be willing to strap those boots again and go after them? Especially with a very competitive teammate snapping at the heels? There is surely a probability that Hamilton will retire at the end of the 2023 F1 season. At that point, who does Mercedes have to replace him with? To be honest, no one stands out (from the Mercedes reserve drivers). Could Mercedes give it some thought to signing the German, a four-time world champion, so that his experience supplements the youthful exuberance of Russell? They might!
Vettel could look at a possible one-year extension at Aston Martin this season and try to place himself in the best possible position to take over from Hamilton at Mercedes. Now, we know it seems far-fetched and to an extent, it will need a lot of things to align, but if it ultimately positions Vettel to fight for wins/podiums, it's worth a punt.
Are these options realistic?
Now that we have laid down the possibilities that look enticing, let's answer one crucial question: How realistic are they?
#1 Extend his stay at Aston Martin
In a way, for Sebastian Vettel to extend his stay at Aston Martin, he would need a lot more convincing. At the current performance level, where Vettel has faced 3 consecutive eliminations in Q1, it's hard to expect him to be happy or satisfied with these performance levels.
The bigger issue with Aston Martin is not its performance level, however. It's the involvement of the Saudi Arabian government with the team. Sebastian Vettel has had a somewhat free reign in what he does outside the track, but with the Saudi government buying a stake in the team, things will surely change. The German's outspoken stance on issues could see those views get directed against his own team's owners and that's not a comfortable situation to be in. With the involvement of the Saudi government in the team, it more or less signals the end of Vettel's outspoken stance against global issues as long as he is with the team.
Through all of this, why would Sebastian Vettel extend his stay at Aston Martin when the team cannot give him a fast car and impose restrictions on what he says? He won't! The new Saudi money should be great news for Aston Martin, but it almost certainly spells the end of Vettel's stint at the Silverstone-based outfit.
#2 A possible move to McLaren
In terms of teams, McLaren is definitely a step up from Aston Martin. After looking at what Daniel Ricciardo has to go through, however, will Sebastian Vettel even be interested in joining the team? The team has a certain design philosophy that does not work for Ricciardo. That design philosophy has permeated from the previous regulations to this one.
What if Vettel ends up struggling with the same issues? More importantly, McLaren is a team that is built around Lando Norris as the future of the team. Going into that team, Vettel will not be able to mold car development in the direction he wants, something that is quite evident with what has happened to Ricciardo.
Even if Vettel does overcome this aspect, what if he's not given the same freedom to express himself as he does right now? Other than Aston Martin, it's hard to see many established teams letting their drivers be too vocal in public.
Finally, there are close to 8 drivers in contention for that McLaren seat, which just reflects the kind of indecision there is within the team when it comes to signing a replacement for Ricciardo. Considering all these ifs and buts, does a move to McLaren even seem realistic? The more you think about it, the less likely it appears that the Vettel to McLaren switch could happen.
#3 Hold out for Mercedes
If one thinks about it, if Mercedes were interested in signing a German driver, it would have aggressively pushed for Mick Schumacher when he won the F3 Championship. Or even for the 2017 F1 season, the team would not have gone for Valtteri Bottas but Nico Hulkenberg, a rather popular German driver.
Toto Wolff handles the reigns when it comes to all the important decisions in the team and that includes driver lineups. He managed Bottas, ensuring the Finnish driver got the nod. If Hamilton retires at the end of next season, he won't be looking at Vettel, he will most probably be looking at another driver that he manages. In all likelihood, Esteban Ocon will take Hamilton's spot after a rather impressive stint in Alpine. For Sebastian Vettel, the door to Mercedes just does not look viable at this point.
Conclusion
This brings us to the conclusion of it all, one that even we are not very happy with. With no viable or realistic option open for Vettel, however, it does appear that the four-time world champion will retire at the end of the 2022 F1 season. We hope we're wrong. We really do! By the looks of it, though, it pains us to say that Sebastian Vettel will not be on the F1 grid next season.
