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The Imola GP is right around the corner and this time around, we thought of switching it up a little. For a change, let's jump off the fence and make some bold predictions for the race.
We now have the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc leading the way after three races. He leads the championship from Mercedes' George Russell. To be fair though, the gap that needs to be focussed on is the gap between Leclerc and Max Verstappen and that gap is 46 points right now! The Monegasque can literally take a week off, miss the race at Imola, and still have the lead in the championship.
Speaking of the Imola GP, we have the sprint race format this weekend. Moreover, there seems to be a very strong possibility of rain. Having said that, let's get off the fence and jump straight to the predictions for the Imola GP.
#1 If it rains, Max Verstappen wins, and if it's dry, it's a Charles Leclerc win
Now, we know this might not be the boldest of predictions for the race, but please just hear us out. Well, the reasoning is simple. We feel that Ferrari will be the better car at the Imola GP. The fast-flowing first sector works to Red Bull's advantage and should help. Looking at the overall lap, however, there are enough slow-speed sections where Ferrari can make up time and even pull away.
Consequently, if the weekend stays dry, expect Charles Leclerc to hold an advantage over Max Verstappen and pick up his third win of the season.
If, however, it is wet and the rain causes disruptions, things are going to get mixed up. While this is not a dig at Leclerc, in their respective careers up until now, we have seen that the Dutchman is probably the gold standard of driving when it comes to wet races. Even last season, while Mercedes held an advantage over Red Bull on pace, Verstappen was able to beat Lewis Hamilton, a master of rain himself, at this very track. So, if it rains, Max Verstappen might win the Imola GP!
#2 For Max Verstappen, its elbows out at the Imola GP
A lot has been written about the goody-two-shoes nature of the battle between Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc. The two drivers have given each other space, they have kept it clean, and more often than not, they have not tried to push the boundaries. At the start of the season, this made sense. Neither of the drivers knew how good the car was, and didn't want to get involved in a ridiculous accident and compromise their race.
Right now, the roles have changed a bit. Charles Leclerc has 71 points in the bag, while Max Verstappen has just 25 points to his name. Although it's only 3 races, this changes the mindset of both the drivers.
Now, Leclerc cannot afford an incident in the race. He has to score the maximum possible points, drive a clean race, and stay away from incidents. Verstappen, on the other hand, has nothing to lose. With a 46-point deficit, he is pretty much out of contention, and if he has to do a bit of argy-bargy to get ahead, he will go for it.
For the Imola GP, say goodbye to the friendly Max Verstappen who was far too accommodating to Leclerc in the first couple of races as the aggressive Dutchman makes a return.
#3 Fernando Alonso on the podium will not be a surprise
If there is one rival that Fernando Alonso has had this season, then it is reliability. He struggled with tire wear in the first race of the season and was thoroughly beaten by his teammate Esteban Ocon. In subsequent races, however, the Spaniard was at his best.
He was on course for a top-6 finish in Saudi Arabia before his car gave up and shut down. He was on course for a top-4 qualifying performance at the Australian GP before a hydraulics issue in his car completely wrecked his weekend.
The Spaniard has only two points to show from his first three races this season. Compare that to the 20 points scored by Ocon, and you will recognize a complete contrast in fortunes.
When one talks about Alonso, he is a driver that embodies the Samurai spirit. He is a driver who has this tendency of bouncing back even harder after a bad weekend.
Fernando Alonso will be angry, dejected, and even disappointed after the first three races. What this only does, however, is rile him up further for an even better performance in the next race.
With Alpine, Alonso has a car in which he can do some handy things. Solely on pace, is Alpine capable of finishing on the podium? The answer might be negative in this case for any regular driver. For the Spaniard, however, the answer is yes. He can take the Alpine to the podium and if he does so at the Imola GP, it would not be a surprise. In fact, we are predicting a surprise podium for Alonso at the Imola GP.
#4 McLaren beats Mercedes in a straight fight at the Imola GP
If there is one team that has shown that it can recover after stumbling at the start of the season, it's McLaren. The team was at best 8th fastest in Bahrain. Slowly but steadily, in just 2 weekends, it had Lando Norris qualifying in 4th position in the Australian GP.
On the other hand, a team that has shown it is fighting hard to make it happen is Mercedes. The team has pretty much stayed in the same place in the first three races. It was the third-fastest team in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Australia. It will, in all probability, remain third fastest at the Imola GP as well.
For the Imola GP, the team has opted not to bring in upgrades due to the congested nature of the weekend. McLaren, on the other hand, has been cutting down the gap to the front at a rate that has been shocking to observe.
The team was snapping at the heels of Mercedes in Australia. Comparing the static nature of Mercedes' performance this season to the upward improvement graph of McLaren, it shouldn't be a surprise to see the latter leapfrog the former. After years of dominance, it would be a novelty to see Mercedes losing fairly and squarely to a customer team.
#5 A dry weekend exposes the new regulations and the Sprint format
This is not a dig at the new regulations. These regulations are surely a step in the right direction. This, however, is probably a dig at what is a rather questionable choice to have the sprint race at the Imola GP. After all, if you want to showcase your new product, you should showcase it in an environment where that product can shine.
A sprint race is a 100 km race without tire changes or mandatory pitstops. The whole purpose of a sprint race is to provide wheel-to-wheel action. Is the Imola GP track one to excel when it comes to wheel-to-wheel action? The answer, sadly, is no, that is just not the case.
Following Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, fans have developed a skewed perception of the new regulations. Have these new regulations helped with the overtakes in the race? The answer is yes, they have. They, however, are surely not potent enough on tracks that are just not conducive to wheel-to-wheel action.
We just saw in Australia how ineffective even the DRS was. If it is a normal race weekend, it would be more or less on the same lines or probably worse, because Imola is not even comparable to Australia in terms of wheel-to-wheel action.
To be fair, the sprint race format is a good addition and it has been made more rewarding by adding points until the 8th position. The Imola GP, however, is just not the race to implement that and we could be looking at some criticism coming its way for its inability to deliver what it was supposed to.
