3 Reasons Why England May Not Win the World Cup

If someone told you at the beginning of the World Cup that England will lift the trophy at the end of the tournament, you would either think he’s joking or he may not know what he’s talking about. Yet, with The Three Lions is heading straight into the quarter-finals, the football-is-coming-home idea is actually starting to seem believable.

A dramatic victory over Colombia means not only did England just win their first successful shoot-out ever in the World Cup, but they’re also just two matches away from the final, and being in a supposedly easier route to reach that final.

Plus the fact that the stronger contenders like Germany, Argentina, Spain – and eventually, Brazil – have been eliminated already.

One thing that seems like a key factor to all the hype is the shoot-out victory. Optimism may not have been this high had The Three Lions beaten The Cafeteros in a normal 90-minute match.

A simple 1-0 would’ve sufficed, but then England would’ve still been haunted by their woeful shootout record. So now that they’ve lifted the curse, nothing can stop them to finally say “welcome home” to the football itself.

But we should’ve known better than football can never be predicted that easy, especially at this particular World Cup. Let’s first take a look at three factors that can simply turn the whole scheme into a mere fantasy.

---

#1 England's record against quarter-final opponents Sweden

The Swedish team is not an easy opponent for England

Many think that when England lost to Belgium in the last match of the group, they did it on purpose so that they won't end up on the other side of the draw which is arguably harder with teams such as France and Brazil. But if that was really the case, there’s a chance that they may have done that for nothing.

While admittedly a match against those teams would give anyone a hard time, the Swedish team is not exactly the kind of opponent that England should be happy to face either. Janne Andersson’s men may not be the strongest of them all, but judging from the head-to-head record, the match will potentially be tough for England.

Both teams have gone face-to-face 8 times in major tournaments, and England is trailing behind with only one victory. The Swedish got a slightly better result with two wins, while the other five ended with a draw.

Sweden won 3 of their 4 matched whilst Gareth Southgate’s boys only won two in normal time. England is more productive with 9 goals compared to 6, but the yellow and blue side has a better defence, conceding just 2 goals in 4 matches.

And finally, don’t forget the fact that Sweden managed to finish at the top of the group which had defending champions Germany and potential dark horses Mexico. That alone should be enough to tell England that they must never underestimate them.

#2 England are struggling to score from open play

Harry Kane takes a penalty kick against Colombia

While it’s true that England is one of the most productive teams in Russia so far, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re unstoppable at the front. Six out of their nine goals actually came in one match against Panama, a debutant who ended up in the last place of the tournament table.

What’s more of a concern is that the England players seem to struggle to get on the score sheet via open play. Only two goals were created from open play while the other 7 came either from the penalty spot (3 goals) or corner kicks (4 goals).

And even those two goals don’t exactly show a fierce attacking capability: one speculative shot from Jesse Lingard and the other one seemed like just mere luck after a shot from Loftus-Cheek hit Harry Kane on the heel and saw the goalkeeper wrong-footed.

And again, those two came in the match against Panama. If the Swedish can somehow minimize defensive errors resulting in corner kicks or a penalty, England would have a mountain to climb to earn a place in the semi-final.

#3 England have not performed well against stronger teams

Adnan Januzaj from Belgium shoots to score

We already know that England have only got two victories at this World Cup. Now add the fact that those two came from the match against Tunisia and Panama, it can tell you another thing about their so-called amazing performance so far.

Struggling against a traditionally strong team is actually not some brand-new habit that England has adopted. We have to head back to two years ago to see when England won a big match against Germany, which was only a friendly game.

It took David Beckham’s penalty in 2002 to secure their last victory over big teams at the World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 at that time. The problem has yet to go away in Russia.

England lost to Belgium, and they needed a penalty shootout to send Colombia home. Not to mention, they only managed to get one goal from those two matches via Harry Kane’s spot kick.

Sure, England did change their winning team against Belgium, but so did the opponent. The Colombians also played minus their superstar James Rodriguez.

England knows that if they really plan to go all the way to the final, they will eventually face another big name. If Belgium's second lineup could beat them, so could the other five remaining teams.

Gareth Southgate might want to look into that and find a solution real quick. Otherwise, The Three Lions would have to bid adieu to their biggest opportunity to bring the football back home.