If there’s one thing that every Premier League season guarantees – outside of jaw-dropping action that is – it’s the continuation of the managerial merry-go-round. Whether it’s a big name being shockingly fired or a hapless manager at a lower-level club being put out of his misery, you can bet your life that at least one Premier League manager will win the infamous “sack race”.
The first boss to go in 2016/17 was Swansea’s Francesco Guidolin, and he was later joined by Alan Pardew of Crystal Palace, Bob Bradley also of Swansea, Mike Phelan of Hull City, Claudio Ranieri of Leicester City, Aitor Karanka of Middlesbrough, and Walter Mazzarri of Watford. Even the close season saw a sacking as Claude Puel was dispatched by Southampton.
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With the 2017/18 campaign just five weeks away, the speculation has to start now – who will be the first Premier League manager to lose his job? Surprisingly this season, I feel that a lot of the bigger names are likely safe. There are still some likely candidates though and here are five of them.
#5 Craig Shakespeare
This one might sound left-field but the facts speak for themselves. Sure, Craig Shakespeare has only been in the hot seat at Leicester since February, and he’s also done a relatively good job – the 2015/16 Premier League champions were in trouble when he was appointed as caretaker manager, but he inspired a turnaround in form that saw them win five in a row. They finished in a comfortable 12th and also made the Quarter-Finals of the Champions League. But look a little further and you wonder if Shakespeare is really safe.
Well, the treatment of Claudio Ranieri shows that Leicester’s Asian owners can be ruthless if on-field events call for it. Nobody expected Ranieri, who had delivered a miracle in leading the Foxes to the Premier League title, to be fired even when the side’s form dipped badly, but it turned out to be the correct move based on what happened next.
And although Shakespeare did well, to begin with, his last few results weren’t great – just one point from the last three games and a 6-1 hammering at the hands of Tottenham.
Historically too, caretakers who step into the main role are never truly safe. They often take charge of an unhappy dressing room and turn it around, only to find themselves out of their depth in the following season. We saw this with Roberto Di Matteo at Chelsea in 2012 – the Italian led the Blues to the Champions League title but a bad start to the next season saw him fired, and a similar thing happened to Tim Sherwood at Tottenham as he started in excellent form but soon slipped up and lost his job.
The beginning of the season then is crucial for Shakespeare. Make a bad start – in the same way the Foxes ended last season – and it could be curtains for the former caretaker.
#4 Slaven Bilic
2015/16 was a great season for the former Croatia boss Slaven Bilic in his new home at West Ham United. He led the Hammers to a solid 7th place finish in the Premier League and had the side playing far more attractive football than his predecessor Sam Allardyce. 2016/17 though was much more of a struggle. While West Ham finished a respectable 11th, progress certainly wasn’t made – instead, it could be argued that the club took a huge step backwards.
Playing their first season in the Olympic Stadium didn’t seem to help – the Hammers only won five home games all season and lost seven – and they struggled on the goal front too, with midfielder Michail Antonio finishing as top scorer with just nine goals. The often-injured Andy Carroll was their best striker with seven, but loan signings Simone Zaza and Jonathan Calleri – brought in to score goals – failed miserably, managing one goal between them.
West Ham fans basically demand attractive football – witness them turning on Sam Allardyce for playing football considered boring, even if it was usually effective – and club owners David Gold and David Sullivan have proven to be somewhat ruthless in the past too. They’ve mentioned the need for a new striker or two already, but thus far Bilic hasn’t been able to bring in anyone new.
The pressure is clearly on Bilic this season to improve on 2016/17 – both in results and in the quality of football played – and if he can’t handle that pressure then he may find himself a winner in the sack race.
#3 Tony Pulis
Welshman Pulis might not have his teams playing the most mesmerising style of football, but you can’t deny that he’s effective – during his career as a manager he’s never suffered a relegation, and working mainly at smaller clubs, he usually keeps a tight budget and acts as a major annoyance to the larger clubs and the flashier managers of the Premier League. He also led West Bromwich Albion to a solid 10th place finish. So why’s he on this list?
Well, a lot of it depends on the ambitions of West Brom and their new Chinese owners. If simple mid-table safety in the Premier League is enough for them then Pulis is likely safe. Last season was an improvement on 2015/16’s 14th place finish and the Baggies never found themselves in a relegation scrap. But what can’t be denied is the horrendous way the team finished the season.
On February 25th, West Brom defeated Bournemouth to put themselves on 40 points – the usual marker for Premier League safety. From there – an excellent 3-1 win over Arsenal in March aside – Pulis’s men seemed content to simply sit back and relax. They only earned a further five points all season, and ended up losing nine of the 12 games post-Bournemouth. Simply put, it was shameful.
Throw in the less-than-attractive football, and if new owner Guochuan Lai and his chairman John Williams have any more ambitions for the club than mid-table mediocrity, a change may be required and Pulis may have to head elsewhere.
#2 Jose Mourinho
The bosses of England’s other top clubs – Pep Guardiola, Antonio Conte, Mauricio Pochettino, Arsene Wenger and Jurgen Klopp – all look relatively safe now. And you could perhaps argue the same for Mourinho at Manchester United. But look slightly below the surface and the legendary Portuguese boss probably isn’t on as solid ground as you’d suspect.
It’s a fact that since his run at Porto in the early 00s, the appointment of Mourinho has essentially guaranteed a club success. He led Porto to the Champions League, won two Premier League titles with Chelsea, two Serie A titles and the Champions League with Inter Milan, La Liga with Real Madrid, and another Premier League with Chelsea. And admittedly, his first season at Old Trafford saw him claim two trophies, albeit lesser ones in the Football League Cup and the Europa League.
In the Premier League though, Mourinho largely failed. Despite spending a tremendous amount of money to bring Eric Bailly, Paul Pogba, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to the club, he could only lead United to a 6th place finish – their lowest since the David Moyes season.
Much was made of a 25-game unbeaten run in the league, but that run also saw 12 draws, including four 0-0s. With less-than-entertaining football for most of the season, it really wasn’t good enough for Manchester United.
This summer is likely to see Mourinho spend more untold riches on new players and so if he can’t deliver the sort of success that United expect this time around – the Premier League title basically – it could be curtains for him, especially if he gets a poor start.
#1 Rafael Benitez
Premier League strugglers often have to dispense of their manager if the club gets off to a bad start – it’s some sort of survival instinct kicking in, basically. If a club isn’t really expected to survive though, the manager is often kept on a much longer leash. So I fully expect Chris Hughton and David Wagner – of smaller promoted sides Brighton & Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town respectively – to be safe. The same cannot be said for Rafael Benitez at Newcastle United.
Nobody could deny that the legendary Spaniard did an exceptional job last season. He got Newcastle promoted at the first attempt – no mean feat – and Newcastle played pretty football for most of the season, scoring a massive 85 goals along the way to winning 29 of their 46 games. But at St. James’s Park, the pressure is almost as suffocating as any of the Premier League’s bigger clubs.
Owner Mike Ashley is notoriously unpredictable and is prone to thoroughly bizarre decisions at times – witness the wild days of his early reign that saw Kevin Keegan, Alan Shearer and Joe Kinnear handed the reins – and while things are more settled now, this is the same chairman that unceremoniously fired Alan Pardew just two seasons after he delivered European football.
Benitez has talked a good game this summer – claiming Newcastle are the dark horses for the title – but he’s already missed out on some transfer targets including striker Tammy Abraham, and so with Ashley’s ruthless ways and a tough season ahead, he can never feel truly safe in his job.
