5 Tips and Tricks to score more points in FPL - Fantasy Premier League 2019 | FPL Scout
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is essentially a game of probability. Certain players and teams are expected to score more than others in a fixture, and the best you can do is to get as many of these in your team at the right time.
The sooner you understand that, the better you will get at FPL. Similarly, you need to start looking at your FPL assets as investments.
Risk management is a big part of that. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, diversify the risk. As much as we can try as FPL managers to predict the future, you have to remember that these are human beings out there and there are random events that can affect outcomes.
Refereeing decisions, weather, etc can all have an impact and all we can do is put ourselves in the most probable position to take advantage.
Don’t beat yourself up if things didn’t play out as expected, that’s why we love football. Keeping that in mind, I am listing my five principles for FPL success below –
1) Check the bookies' odds
As mentioned before, FPL is all about probability and bookmakers calculate these for a living. They have thousands of algorithms that determine the likelihood of a player scoring or a team keeping a clean sheet.
As FPL managers, we need to leverage the research made by these firms for our own benefit. Check the bookies' odds every week primarily for two metrics – A. Anytime goal scorer (AGS) odds B. Clean sheet odds.
Goalscorer odds give you the percentage probability of that player scoring a goal that week. Anything below evens (such as 1.83 or 5/6) means that the player has a very high likelihood of scoring in that fixture and can even be considered for captaincy. Similarly, clean sheet odds of less than evens means the team is very likely to keep a clean sheet and you should have a player from that defence.
Players like Mohamed Salah consistently have AGS odds below evens and this is a sign straightaway that he needs to be in your team. Similarly, Liverpool almost always have a clean sheet probability of over 50%, and even as high as 70% at home. If you are in doubt who to play and to who to bench amongst your defensive options, go with the one who has the higher probability of a clean sheet as per the bookies.