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Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is essentially a game of probability. Certain players and teams are expected to score more than others in a fixture, and the best you can do is to get as many of these in your team at the right time.
The sooner you understand that, the better you will get at FPL. Similarly, you need to start looking at your FPL assets as investments.
Risk management is a big part of that. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, diversify the risk. As much as we can try as FPL managers to predict the future, you have to remember that these are human beings out there and there are random events that can affect outcomes.
Refereeing decisions, weather, etc can all have an impact and all we can do is put ourselves in the most probable position to take advantage.
Don’t beat yourself up if things didn’t play out as expected, that’s why we love football. Keeping that in mind, I am listing my five principles for FPL success below –
1) Check the bookies' odds
As mentioned before, FPL is all about probability and bookmakers calculate these for a living. They have thousands of algorithms that determine the likelihood of a player scoring or a team keeping a clean sheet.
As FPL managers, we need to leverage the research made by these firms for our own benefit. Check the bookies' odds every week primarily for two metrics – A. Anytime goal scorer (AGS) odds B. Clean sheet odds.
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Goalscorer odds give you the percentage probability of that player scoring a goal that week. Anything below evens (such as 1.83 or 5/6) means that the player has a very high likelihood of scoring in that fixture and can even be considered for captaincy. Similarly, clean sheet odds of less than evens means the team is very likely to keep a clean sheet and you should have a player from that defence.
Players like Mohamed Salah consistently have AGS odds below evens and this is a sign straightaway that he needs to be in your team. Similarly, Liverpool almost always have a clean sheet probability of over 50%, and even as high as 70% at home. If you are in doubt who to play and to who to bench amongst your defensive options, go with the one who has the higher probability of a clean sheet as per the bookies.
2) Bet on the big teams
As last season showed, Liverpool and Manchester City are head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the league.
They are fixture proof and can be relied upon consistently to deliver FPL points as they cannot afford even the slightest slip-up in the title race.
As much as possible, try to build your team core around these players, at least four or five in your team at all times. Both the teams kept over 20 clean sheets each last season so don’t ignore their defence in order to load up on their attackers.
You may see attackers, especially from Man City get rotated from time to time but show faith in them. Their explosive potential means that they are likely to score more in one fixture than a subpar asset over two fixtures.
Similarly, Leicester, Everton, and Wolves have shown that they are clearly the best teams after the ‘top six’ and their assets should be favoured over teams such as Brighton who are likely to be in a relegation scrap.
3) Don’t punt with your Captain
The most important decision that an FPL manager needs to get right in any given gameweek is, without a doubt, the captaincy pick.
A good captain can make or break any gameweek. Therefore it is important to back the established heavy hitters rather than punt on options from smaller teams, no matter how alluring the fixture.
It may look tempting to captain Callum Wilson against Brighton but the smaller teams are inconsistent and you never know which version will turn up on the given day. As mentioned above, the top teams are consistent with their performances and are less likely to have an off day.
Moreover, they often have a higher backing with a larger percentage of the game captaining players like Salah and Sergio Aguero. If your punt fails and Salah explodes, you will receive a massive red arrow and be playing catch up. This is where the risk management principle also comes into play, don’t take unnecessary risks with the armband and don’t try to be too clever.
If a heavy hitter like Salah or Aguero has a good fixture, especially at home, captain them. Even if they fail, you will not drop too far down the rankings as everyone is in the same boat.
4) Avoid point hits
Like any investment and risk management strategy, patience is key to success in FPL.
A point hit in FPL deducts 4 points from your score, and though this looks like a small number initially, it’s the same number of points your forward gets for scoring a goal.
Be patient with your picks. Just because Guardiola benched Raheem Sterling this gameweek doesn’t mean that he will do the same next week. You rage transferring the player out might give you some instant vengeance but when he scores a hattrick next week you will be cursing yourself. This is even more so true with budget assets. They cannot be expected to deliver points every week at their price and that should be kept in mind.
An asset 6.5m and under justifies his place if he brings in returns every third week. If you are bringing in someone for a hit, it should be someone you want in your team long-term, at least six gameweeks so that he can justify the outlay over a period of weeks.
Never bring in a player just because he has a good fixture that week alone unless you plan to captain him. The only time that hits can be advocated is during double game weeks because the player is going to score four points for appearance alone and has a higher probability of instantly repaying that hit.
5) Team structure
Like any sound investment strategy, asset mobility and diversity is key. It’s not just attackers that score points, the scoring system in FPL with six points for a goal for defenders means that defenders are an often ignored source of huge point hauls.
Don’t fill your team up with multiple assets over 10m as this will cause an imbalance to the rest of your team. Spread the cash around, and structure your team so that you can chop and change your premium assets in a single transfer.
For example, having at least one defender at the highest price of 7m will allow you to transfer him out for any other form defender in the game in one single transfer. Similarly, having players across different price points in your midfield, such as 12.5m, 9.5m, 8m, 6.5m, etc allows you to change these assets for the form ones with just one move.
If you load up with 5m midfielders like Jorginho, Mark Noble, etc then the options available to ship them out for in a single transfer are very limited and you will likely need to take a point hit. The same applies to a 5.0 forward such as Andone - there is simply no easy exit route if the asset fails to deliver.
