With the failure to beat Bournemouth on the 4th of March, Manchester United cemented a curiously unique and undesirable record for themselves – they had spent more days (138 at the time) in 6th place in the Premier League this season than any other club in any other position.
Since United first occupied 6th place in November, a lot has happened around the world – Donald Trump was elected, inaugurated and took office as President of United States; Liverpool's title odds fell from 4/1 to 55/1; Roger Federer won his 18th grand slam title.
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But the Red Devils, true to themselves, has remained steadfast in 6th position. It is not a position that looks a great deal likely to change either; United has all the poise and appearance of being the 6th best team in the league behind Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Despite a swing either way being a possibility (Arsenal are just one point ahead, while Everton are just five points behind), here are 6 reasons why Manchester United will finish 6th this season:
#1 Profligacy in front of goal and home draws
26 games into the season, United's home record reads six games won, one game lost (against Manchester City) and an incredible seven matches drawn. While draws against Arsenal and Liverpool are excusable, points dropped against Stoke, Burnley, West Ham, Hull and Bournemouth have proved costly and sum up the club’s season succinctly.
All these matches have ended with a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline, and the recurring theme has been a United side dominating the game, playing the opposition off the pitch; only for their profligacy in front of goal to cost them dearly. In these five matches, United recorded a total of 115 shots, of which 41 were on target.
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It is scarcely believable that just three of those ended up in the back of the net – that is a success ratio which is simply unacceptable at this level.
With home matches against West Brom, Swansea City and Crystal Palace in the horizon, United fans would hope that their team would not drop nine points in those three relatively easy fixtures. Swansea and Crystal Palace will be desperate for a share of the spoils to edge out of their relegation battle, and Tony Pulis will give United a torrid time again at the Theater of Dreams.
Even a single point dropped in any of these fixtures might be one slip up too many for United.
#2 Heavy reliance on Zlatan Ibrahimovic; suspension woes
Of the 39 goals Manchester United have scored so far in the league, 15 have come from the boots and head of Zlatan – more than a third of the team's goals. Factor his four assists in as well, and he has had a hand in half the goals United have scored till date. The Red Devils’ reliance on the Swede is no new story – their disappointing evenings of the season have tended to come on Zlatan's off days.
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Therefore, his three-match domestic suspension for elbowing Tyrone Mings will leave Mourinho’s men a far less potent force in attack. Of those, two are Premier League matches against Middlesbrough (away) and West Brom (home).
Manchester United won't fancy facing such staunch defensive setups without Zlatan – and by the time he comes back, sixth place might already be a foregone conclusion.
#3 Upcoming away matches against Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City
Of the 12 matches Manchester United have left to play in the season, three of them are away matches against Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City. Fired up by the prospect of cementing their respective top four statuses, the three clubs will fancy picking up all three points against United, thus sending a direct rival out of the top four race.
In particular, United's Premier League clash at the Etihad will be one to watch out for.
With the date for the clash yet to be decided, it is very much possible that Jose Mourinho’s team will have to navigate the fixture on the back of tiring European commitments, while City will be relatively fresher having played on Tuesday/Wednesday in Champions League.
#4 Liverpool has arrested their slump
Liverpool's January capitulation provided United genuine hope of a route to the top four. Till the match against Tottenham, Klopp's Reds seemed United's best hope of a weak link among the top clubs.
Wins against Tottenham and Arsenal and a collapse against Leicester later, it is still anybody's guess how Liverpool will fare come the end of the season. But the general sense is that the mini-revival will be enough to spark a surge into the top four.
Arsenal, meanwhile, for all their struggles against top opposition, have traditionally been flat track bullies of the league. They have picked 34 out of the available 45 points against the bottom half of the league till date, and such ruthless consistency will ensure they will keep ahead of United in the race for Champions League places.
#5 Europa League and fixture congestion
Liverpool have no European competition this season and have also been knocked out of FA Cup; Tottenham and Arsenal have also been humbled in European competitions. This leaves Manchester City as the only club alongside United still in three competitions.
Towards the latter stages of the season, this fixture congestion will play a vital role in shaping the final league positions. When United rotate their squad, especially to give an occasional breather to Zlatan, a couple of tired legs may lead to points dropped.
Moreover, the feeling is already pervading at United that a focus on Europa League could yield more fruit than a top 4 struggle – don't be surprised if one or two league matches take backstage as the pressure of the knockout stages take hold.
#6 Squad still in transition
That Jose Mourinho has taken the Manchester club several steps forward under his watch is certainly beyond doubt – the signings Eric Bailly, Paul Pogba, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Henrikh Mkhitaryan have all been successful. The club have already won a trophy in the former Chelsea manager’s first season in charge (maybe more to come as well) and the feeling of stagnancy that had taken hold of the club under David Moyes and Louis van Gaal has dissipated.
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But one can see that it is still a work in progress – as Mkhitaryan will testify, it is not an easy task to fight your way into a Mourinho first 11. Players like Anthony Martial and Luke Shaw are yet to win over their manager's confidence completely. Mourinho is still on the lookout for an experienced figurehead in defence to partner Eric Bailly.
One more summer transfer window should give this squad more of a Mourinho touch – but as of now, they remain a work in progress with one step taken backwards, for every two forward.
