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The most prestigious club football tournament in the world heads into the business end of the group stages which started with 32 teams of Europe battling for only 16 berths in the knockout phase. European giants of the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich have already entered the next stage but other groups are still wide open and traditional bigwigs like Manchester United and Chelsea still have a lot to do to guarantee their place in the last 16. We look at all the permutations and combinations of the groups, the teams who are poised to qualify, the ones who will have to make do with Europe League and the unfortunate ones who won’t be seeing anymore European nights this season.
The group toppers will carry an advantage into the knockout stage. They can’t be drawn against a table-topper from another group for the pre-quarterfinals, so it pays to be out in front. The third placed teams will get a direct entry into the last 32 of the second-tier Europa League while the bottom dwellers will return empty handed. We analyse the outcome of all the groups by looking at the current form, past results, reputation and head-to-head record. Only 9 teams have managed to qualify after the conclusion of the penultimate matchday of the group stages, leaving 7 spots still up for grabs. Matchday 6 promises to be an edge-of-the-seat, roller-coaster ride which will go down to the very last second. And with all matches in a day being played at the same time, this one is not for the faint-hearted.
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Three English teams are standing on the verge of getting knocked out, while the unheralded names are creating waves all across Europe. The most celebrated and thrilling club football tournament in the world is set to give football purists and fans two days, 16 matches and 1440 minutes of exhilarating and inspiring dose of the most beautiful game in the world.
Note: Before you apply your mathematical brains and calculations to the situation at hand, it’s worth mentioning that UEFA doesn’t consider the goal difference rule as the foremost fix for ranking teams level on points in the group stages of the CL. Below is a snap from the official UEFA rulebook for the tournament relating to the issue in question.
Also, all teams from Groups A-D will play their Matchday 6 fixtures on December 7 (Wednesday) while Group E-G matches will be played out a day earlier on December 6 (Tuesday).
Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich are going great guns in all competitions and have ensured top spot in their group after their 3-1 win over Villarreal. Napoli’s crucial victory over high-flying Manchester City means that it’s anybody’s game for second place. City host Bayern on Matchday 6 in a do or die encounter but the Germans will be starting as favorites for that one. Meanwhile, Napoli will travel to Villarreal, knowing that a win against the hapless and winless Yellow Submarine will see them through to the last 16 stage.
Napoli will be overwhelming favorites against the Spanish club, who will be playing for nothing but pride. Even if Bayern decide to field a second-string side, Mancini’s boys will be bogged down by nerves and fear and will have to play out of their skins. A win is a pre-requisite for City’s qualification, they will have their hopes pinned on Villarreal to salvage atleast a point. Similar outcomes in the two matches will take Napoli home, courtesy their solitary point advantage.
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Man City vs Bayern Munich Villarreal vs Napoli
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: Bayern Munich (decided)Runners-up: NapoliEuropa League: Manchester CityBetter luck next time: Villarreal (decided)
Inter have put their domestic woes aside to advance to the knockout stages. The 2010 champions have also secured pole position while the three remaining teams- Trabzonspor, Lille and CSKA Moscow are all in the race to join Inter in the last 16. CSKA Moscow face Inter at San Siro, and the Russians will take heart from their opening matchday performance (2-3 defeat) against the Nerazzurri and with the group honours in the bag, Inter will be looking to rest key players. Lille and Turkish side Trabzonspor face-off in a winner-takes-it-all contest which promises to be a nail-biting thriller as there was nothing to separate the two sides in their last meeting.
A win for Trabzonspor will send them through irrespective of the other result while Lille, who showed glimpses of brilliance against CSKA, too will be assured of a last 16 berth after an outright win. They are level on points with CSKA but with a superior head-to-head record, who themselves will be unleashing their entire ammunition in Milan. This one will go down to the wire, sit back and buckle up!
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Inter Milan vs CSKA MoscowLille vs Trabzonspor
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: Inter (decided)Runners-up: LilleEuropa League: TrabzonsporBetter luck next time: CSKA Moscow
Perhaps the closest one out of all the eight groups, group C presents an unexpected and tricky scenario for English giants Manchester United. They are staring at a first round exit for the only first time since the 2006 debacle, a result that would be hugely disappointing and heart-breaking, given the fact that they have made the finals of this event thrice in the last 4 years. They face the daunting task of travelling to the Swiss Alps to face Basel, but even a draw will suffice for the English champions.
Benfica, who have already secured their place in the next round, face minnows Otelul Galati at home, a match they are expected to win without much fuss, which might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for United. Basel will be enjoying home advantage and a psychological upper-hand after their commendable 3-3 performance at Old Trafford a few weeks ago. Sir Alex Ferguson will be bringing all his experience into play and try to grab a win. Benfica carry a superior head-to-head record against United, and a win against Otelul will assure them of the top spot and, subsequently, an easier draw in the next stage.
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Basel vs Man UtdBenfica vs Otelul Galati
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: Benfica (qualified)Runners-up: Manchester UnitedEuropa League: BaselBetter luck next time: Otelul Galati (decided)
Runaway leaders Real Madrid have taken the Champions League by storm this season, scoring 16 goals in 5 matches and letting in just 2. They have a luxurious 7 point cushion over second placed Ajax, who host Real with one foot already in the knockout stage. But the Dutch champions can’t take things for granted and loosen up against a second-string Madrid side (which too looks like an all-star eleven), especially after the misery they inflicted on Dinamo Zagreb.
Fellow contenders Lyon travel to Zagreb to achieve the near impossible. They’ll need a combination of miracles to sneak into the next round (Ajax vs Lyon head-to-head is 0-0, so it comes down to the goal difference). Firstly, they’ll have to win big and hope for a similar performance from an out-to-enjoy Madrid team in Amsterdam. That is the only way they can overturn their 7 goal-difference deficit to Ajax. Looks unlikely, but football is a funny game and as they say, it’s not over until the final whistle.
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Dinamo Zagreb vs LyonAjax vs Real Madrid
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: Real Madrid (decided)Runners-up: AjaxEuropa League: LyonBetter luck next time: Dinamo Zagreb (decided)
Another tightly contested affair which has been thrown wide open after Chelsea’s last gasp defeat at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen, who by virtue of the victory have secured a spot in the last 16. They also have made themselves favorites to top the group, going into the final round of matches. For those of you wondering how Leverkusen have secured qualification, do take a look at the rules listed above. If Chelsea and Valencia play out a draw, irrespective of the no. of goals, taking rule (a) into account, Leverkusen will have 6 points, Chelsea and Valenica 5 each, and these points are added up by considering only the matches between the teams level on points or in question.
Genk are capable of springing up surprises at home, their 1-1 result against Chelsea being a perfect testament, but Leverkusen will be full of confidence and a victory might not be too much to ask for. Chelsea and Valencia are evenly matched teams, but considering current form, the Spanish side gets my nod. Chelsea have lost 3 out of their last 4 matches, out of which two have been at home to domestic rivals Arsenal and Liverpool.Valencia are going strong in the league and Roberto Soldado-led 7-0 thrashing of Genk will act as a huge morale boost. Moreover, Chelsea’s porous defence, misfiring frontline, and Valencia have a decent chance, but expect a close game. Chelsea can only advance in case of an outright win or a goalless draw while Valencia will go through in any other possible scenario.
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Genk vs Bayer LeverkusenChelsea vs Valencia
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: Bayer Leverkusen (qualified)Runners-up: ValenciaEuropa League: ChelseaBetter luck next time: Genk (decided)
After a disastrous start to the season, a resurgent Arsenal unexpectedly became the first English team to book a place in the last 16 stage. Robin van Persie has been their flag-bearer, scoring goals at will. Their 2-1 win over Dortmund ensured that the Gunners will end the group stages top of the pile. The second qualification spot will be at the center of a 3-way tussle between Dortmund, Olympiacos and Marseille.
Arsene Wenger will surely be giving his overworked marquee players a much deserved rest away at Olympiacos, an opportunity the Greek side will be relishing to grab firmly with both hands. Marseille will have their backs to the wall when they pay a visit to Borussia Dortmund at the hostile Signal Iduna Park. The two sides are enjoying contrasting fortunes in the league, with Dortmund in second position in Bundesliga while Marseille languish in the mid-table of Ligue 1. The bookmakers’ bet should be on Dortmund, which is the desired result for Olympiacos to qualify.
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Olympiacos vs ArsenalBorussia Dortmund vs Marseille
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: Arsenal (decided)Runners-up: OlympiacosEuropa League: Borussia DortmundBetter luck next time: Marseille
By now, a little exhaustion is creeping in with all the maths, research etc. and this group doesn’t bring any respite. Both first and second places are there for the taking with 3 teams in the hunt. APOEL, after their goaless draw against Zenit became the first ever Cypriot side to enter the knockout stages of the CL and they have raised quite a few eyebrows with their impressive display on the pitch, and the results to go with it. Suddenly, they find themselves topping the charts and with a great chance to create new records and establish a historical legacy as they host bottom-dwellers Shakhtar Donetsk in Nicosia, a place where they have been invincible so far.
In the other game, Porto host Russian club Zenit in another must-watch encounter. Porto too have been unbeaten at home in this year’s CL and Estadio do Dragao has never been a happy hunting ground for visiting squads. APOEL and Porto should emerge triumphant in their respective matches and qualify for the next round. Zenit might put up a brave face, but a draw seems to be the only realistic target, which will be enough to put them through.
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Apoel Nicosia vs Shakhtar DonetskFC Porto vs Zenit St Petersburg
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: APOEL (qualified)Runners-up: PortoEuropa League: ZenitBetter luck next time: Shakhtar Donetsk (decided)
The group is done and dusted with defending champions Barcelona and Italian giants AC Milan already having sealed their berths in the knockout stages. The only battle that remains to be fought is the one for the consolation prize, a backdoor entry into the Europa League. But that fight too seems to have lost its steam due to the enormity of the opposition. Both Viktoria Plzen and BATE Borisov aren’t expected to give Milan and Barcelona, respectively, a run for their money.
Plzen, who will be playing at home, are more inclined towards achieving a satisfactory result, which only strengthens their claim for the third spot. Anyhow, these two matches, bereft of any significant motivation factor, could easily turn out to be highly entertaining, especially with Barcelona in action.
Matchday 6 Fixtures:
Plzen vs AC MilanBarcelona vs BATE
Standings Prediction:
Table Toppers: Barcelona (decided)Runners-up: AC Milan (decided)Europa League: Viktoria PlzenBetter luck next time: BATE
