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One of the major dilemmas of Fantasy Premier League managers is choosing in-form players over others who have easier fixtures. But the start of a new FPL campaign brings relief from such a dilemma. A clean slate in front of us is an opportunity to take an early lead in our mini-leagues. The easiest strategy to follow at all times during the season is to avoid players with tough fixtures.
Agreed, there are notable exceptions to this rule; Raul Jimenez turned out to be an FPL legend last season with his consistent returns against the top sides. Similarly, Jamie Vardy has made it a habit to score against the top teams, so much so that managers look forward to Leicester’s fixtures against the top 6.
But these are anomalies which occur sparsely and we should be flexible enough to open our pockets to buy such gems. What cannot be refused is that at the start of a season it’s safer to put your money in teams with easier fixtures.
So while listing teams with the worse fixtures, I have not only considered the fixture difficulty during the opening five gameweeks but also considered the team’s stability, inconsistent starting XI, lack of nailed on assets and also in some cases European adventure between gameweeks.
#5 Tottenham Hotspur (AVL, MCI, NEW, ARS, CRY)
Although Spurs face newly promoted Aston Villa to start their premier league campaign, investment in Tottenham must come with some caution. There is no reason to be completely thrown off by Spurs - home matches against Newcastle and Crystal Palace are likely to give positive returns.
The major issue with Tottenham is the rotation worries and injury crisis at various positions. Dele Alli (8.5m) has picked up a hamstring injury. Mauricio Pochettino confirmed on Sunday that the attacking midfielder will not be available for the first game of the season.
"Of course we are worried. He's still so young and has had many, many hamstring problems the last few years. He has to pay attention to what is going on in his body, but we are here to try to help him. It is a minor injury. Only a few weeks before he can be available again and be with the group.”
The full-back situation is tricky as well, with Kieran Trippier gone on his Spanish adventure, it looks as if Juan Foyth (£5.0m) has sealed the right-back spot after playing substantial minutes in the pre-season. However, Foyth faces suspension for the first three gameweeks leaving Kyle-Walker Peters (£5.0m) to grab the position.
Again, he will face competition in the form of Serge Aurier (£5.0m) who is expected to return in gameweek 2. On the opposite flank, Danny Rose (£5.5m) should start the season but he faces rotation risk when Ben Davies (£5.5m) returns from injury.
Christian Eriksen (£9.0m) has been linked with several Premier League rivals, notably Manchester United to complete a transfer before the deadline closes. With Heung-Min Son (£9.5m) suspended till gameweek 3, the headaches for Pochettino are numerous.
This leaves us with the differential Lucas Moura (£7.5m) and the veteran Harry Kane (£11.0m). There is enough potential in the fixtures for above-average returns but these come with a good junk of risk.
#4 Wolves (LEI, MUN, BUR, EVE, CHE)
After having a stellar performance in the 2018/19 Premier League and the fantasy world, the Wolves team line up in the new season with notable European recruits. Italian striker Patrick Cutrone (£6.0m) has joined from AC Milan, the Portuguese pair of winger Pedro Neto and central midfielder Bruno Jardao (both unlisted on FPL) make their way to the Midlands from Lazio, and Real Madrid's young center-back Jesus Vallejo joins the Wanderers on loan.
Even though these signings strengthen Wolves on all three fronts, their Europa League adventure makes their FPL assets less attractive. Having beaten Irish side Crusaders in the second round of Europa League qualifying stage, the team makes a 14 hour round trip to Armenia to face Pyunik Erevan in the final qualifying stage on Thursday night.
Things do not get any easier as Nuno Santo's side travel to Leceister on Sunday afternoon before welcoming Manchester United at home in gameweek 2.
In Raul Jimenez (£7.5m) and Diogo Jota (£6.5m), Wolves certainly have popular attackers who made a name for themselves last season by providing valuable returns in tougher fixtures.
However, as we saw with Burnley in 2018/19, Europa League's traveling brings in fatigue and player rotations. The smart bet would be to keep the Wanderers at arm's length at the beginning of the season.
#3 Burnley (SOU, ARS, WOL, LIV, BHA)
On the back of a disappointing 2018/19 Premier League campaign with diabolical fantasy returns, the Burnley side is predicted to produce a better display this season. With no European football to haunt their travels, Chris Wood (£6.5m), Ashley Barnes (£6.5m) and Nick Pope (£4.5m) should be back on FPL managers' radar. But with a tough run of fixtures to start their season, the Clarets are one of the riskier investments.
Another inconsistent fantasy team in Southampton visit the Turf Moor in gameweek 1, which is the only straightforward fixture. Away games to Arsenal and Wolves, with a home fixture against Liverpool in gameweek 4 do not bode well for the players. Burnley did not win any of the corresponding opening 4 fixtures last season, with 3 losses (Arsenal, Wolves & Liverpool) and 1 draw (Burnley) scoring 4 goals while conceding 9.
You can definitely hop on to any in-form Burnley assets once their fixtures turn from gameweek 5 when they travel to Brighton. From GW5 to GW14, Sean Dyche's men play only one top-six side. This run of fixtures is promising enough for 17/18 FPL warrior Nick Pope who should cement his place in goal with the departure of Tom Heaton (£4.5m) to Aston Villa.
#2 Norwich City (LIV, NEW, CHE, WHU, MCI)
Home fixtures against Liverpool and Manchester City in the opening five gameweeks are a scary sight for newly promoted Norwich City. The Canaries are one of the least owned teams with the highest owned player being Michael McGovern (4.7% ownership), a £4.0m bench warmer, who is a cheap place-holder in the teams selected.
Teemu Pukki's (£6.5m) owners can be encouraged by Norwich's game against a chaotic Newcastle squad in gameweek 2, but it is the only source of light in an otherwise gloomy fixture list. A home tie against Chelsea does not look promising and an away trip to London Stadium is rather unpredictable against an explosive Hammers attack.
Managers should also note that the EFL Championship winners have signed an experienced shot stopper in Ralf Fahrmann (£4.5m) who should secure his place in the starting XI over Tim Krul (£4.5m).
#1 Newcastle United (ARS, NOR, TOT, WAT, LIV)
On the top of our charts for the teams to avoid at the start of the season, is unsurprisingly Newcastle United. Rafa Benitez has left the club on a sour note after categorically pulling the Geordies away from relegation. It can be argued that the squad was over-performing with the presence of the Spanish manager.
Moreover, Ayoze Perez (£6.5m) and Saloman Rondon who scored 12 and 11 league goals in 2018/19 respectively have left the club with Joelinton (£6.0m) looking to fill their boots.
With trips to Tottenham and Liverpool, home games against Arsenal and Watford in the opening few fixtures, the Magpies do not ooze optimism. Tough fixtures glued with instability in management is not a promising sight at any club, let alone Newcastle.
The only possible attraction for managers could be an out-of-position Matt Ritchie (£5.5m) who should play on the wings even though he is listed as a defender. Although, being hopeful of a Newcastle clean sheet with those opening set of fixtures is just clutching at straws.
