Gameweek 38 Tips: FPL Golden Tip - Fantasy Premier League Tips
Don't ignore form over fixtures!
You can use historic data to predict a players potential to score points and if there's one thing I've learnt this year it's definitely that form plays a huge part in FPL success.
One too many times I've brought in a player based on their upcoming fixtures. My GW34 wildcard was a prime example. The double Brighton defence was purely a 'fixture' move - I ignored the fact they had only 3 clean sheets in 21 games! And look how that one worked out... they conceded 7 goals in 2 games.
But how do I know if a player is in form?
I generally look for 2 returns in 3 games. Defensive returns being clean sheets or bonus points and attacking returns being assists, goals or bonus points. THEN you take a look at their fixtures. The law of averages indicates a player who has decent form is more likely to continue that form against lower-table teams or teams that are struggling for points themselves. You have to also look at players over a longer stretch of games (say 5 or 6 games) to know if you've made a good move.
Good examples of form this season?
Heung-Min Son - GW13 to GW21 - 8 goals and 6 assists.
Leroy Sané - GW9 to GW15 - 5 goals and 4 assists.
Sadio Mané - GW23 to GW31 - 9 goals and 1 assist.
Eden Hazard - GW3 to GW8 - 7 goals and 1 assist.
Ashley Barnes - GW21 to GW29 - 6 goals and 1 assist.
Richarlison - GW11 to GW19 - 5 goals and 1 assist.
There have been tons of periods of form this season - but part of it does come down to luck? Ask yourself some key questions:
- Does this player have regular periods of form over a season?
- Do they historically perform away as well as at home?
- Are they a crucial player/talisman in their team?
- Have they already had form this year?
- How likely is it this form will continue?
- What are their next 4 fixtures?