The most awaited match of the year is almost upon us as Juventus take on Real Madrid in the Champions League final on 3 June. While Real Madrid are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back European titles in the Champions League era, Juventus are looking to accomplish the treble for the first time in the club’s history.
It is the final everyone wanted when the four semi-finalists were confirmed as AS Monaco and Atletico Madrid were swatted aside and did nothing more than slow them down on the road to Cardiff.
But which team has the upper hand – at least on paper – in the final? We compared the two squads to find out.
Probable Lineups
Juventus: Buffon; Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini; Alves, Pjanic, Khedira, Sandro; Dybala, Mandzukic; Higuain
Real Madrid: Navas; Danilo, Ramos, Varane, Marcelo; Casemiro, Kroos, Modric, Isco; Ronaldo, Benzema
Goalkeeper
There’s no question that Juventus have been the best defence in Europe this season having conceded only three times in the entire tournament – twice in the group stages and only once in the knockout stages. Monaco’s young forward Kylian Mbappe was the only player to breach Gianluigi Buffon’s goal in the knockout stages with a consolation goal in the semi-finals having already gone 4-0 down on aggregate.
The veteran Italian goalkeeper has kept 10 clean sheets while Real Madrid’s Keylor Navas has only one clean sheet to his name. To be fair, Navas has been called into action a lot more than Buffon has thanks to a leaky defence but the Costa Rican goalkeeper has also made three errors leading to goals. On the other hand, Buffon is yet to make a costly error in the competition this season.
Buffon’s calm presence at the back and his superior distribution also make him the better goalkeeper in the final. It’s no wonder then that a number of players want him to win the trophy and possibly cause an upset at the Ballon d’Or awards in the process.
Conclusion: Juventus have the better goalkeeper
Defence
As mentioned earlier, Juventus ran a tight ship at the back conceding only three goals in the Champions League this season and a lot of the credit goes to their defence as well. Massimiliano Allegri has used various formations deploying his XI either with a back-three or a back-four in defence.
Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci have been pivotal to that defence playing in both formations while Andrea Barzagli comes in when they play with three at the back. The so-called BBC of Juventus have been playing together for six years now and even line up the same way when they put on an Italy shirt. No set of players have a better understanding than these three and Buffon do.
In contrast, Real have had issues at the back and conceded seven goals in the knockout stages alone and 17 goals overall. Zinedine Zidane has usually gone with Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane at the back but he has had to use Nacho in the centre-back position (the 3-3 draw at Legia Warsaw).
Conclusion: There’s no question – Juventus have the better defence
Full-backs/Wing-backs
This game could well be a battle of the full-backs (wing-backs for Juventus if Allegri plays a back-three) and we could even see an all-Brazilian affair on the flanks. With Dani Carvajal doubtful for the clash, Zidane might use Danilo to play as the right-back with Marcelo on the left. Similarly, Dani Alves and Alex Sandro will take up positions out wide as they have done for Juve no matter what the formation.
The battle between Marcelo and Alves could well decide the tie with Sandro and (possibly) Danilo playing supporting roles. Both players love to get forward and attack but it is Alves who holds the advantage in this regard thanks to his three goals and four assists. Alves has also created more chances than the Real Madrid full-back.
Even on the defensive aspects of the game, Alves is actually a better bet. The Juventus wing-back has made 22 tackles and 23 clearances compared to Marcelo’s 13 tackles and 14 clearances. The only area Marcelo excels is in the interceptions department (24 to 14). However, Marcelo is a better dribbler and has completed a lot more take-ons than Alves.
Conclusion: Both teams are evenly matched
Midfield
The centre of the pitch is what will worry Allegri the most as Juventus could easily be outnumbered in midfield. With Casemiro holding the fort in front of the defence, Luka Modric playing the role of a midfield pivot with an eye for a defence-splitting pass, and Toni Kroos circulating the ball to all areas of the pitch, Juventus have their work cut out.
Casemiro will be key to stopping Dybala who will be expected to play behind Gonzalo Higuain. The Brazilian defensive midfielder has been identified as the biggest threat to disturbing Juve’s rhythm and even received high praise from Allegri.
“He is the man who gives balance to Los Blancos and for me, he is fundamental. He isn't the most technically gifted player but his performance is fundamental.” – Allegri on Casemiro
The onus is on Sami Khedira and Miralem Pjanic to deal with these players but to ensure that it doesn’t become a 3-vs-2 situation, Paulo Dybala will most likely become an auxiliary midfielder when Juventus lose the ball. Else they are doomed to lose the midfield battle.
But this is where Zidane has another trick up his sleeve. With Gareth Bale also doubtful for the game, Isco will surely start in his place. If he does, the Spaniard again gives Real the numerical advantage of ball playing midfielders to control the game.
Conclusion: Real Madrid have the better midfield
Attack
Although both teams will play different formations, the attack boils down to the roles of two players – Paulo Dybala and Cristiano Ronaldo. The right side is compensated by the ever-dependable Dani Alves when Juventus have possession. Dybala will be expected to play behind Gonzalo Higuain who will surely lead the line as will Mario Mandzukic (although he will be out on the left).
Dybala has shown that he is capable of the spectacular (as Barcelona found out) and all he needs is a little space and time to do some serious damage. Ronaldo, on the other hand, no longer plays as a winger and is usually seen in and around the box alongside Karim Benzema. While Benzema will be expected to play the role of the traditional no.9 (just like Higuain), Ronaldo’s free role allows him to get into good goalscoring positions.
His movement will be key to keeping Juve’s BBC defence on their toes although Khedira could track him near the final third and prevent him from adding to his tally of 10 goals in the competition this season.
Ultimately, Mandzukic may be the player who finds himself relatively free to exploit Real’s weak spot that is Danilo.
Conclusion: Juventus have the narrow advantage
Who has the advantage – Real Madrid or Juventus?
Looking at the two squads, Juventus look the stronger side on paper. It could even been evenly matched if Dani Carvajal plays a part and Gareth Bale is also picked in the starting lineup.
However, the Champions League has become Real Madrid’s speciality in recent years. They have scored in 64 consecutive games in all competitions and you cannot rule out a goal from Zidane’s side.
How Real line up in attack will eventually define the course of the game. Neither team has dominated possession in the tournament. Real have scored 23 goals from open play and five times from set-pieces. Juventus, on the other hand, have only scored 14 goals from open play but none from counter-attacks. But they have scored thrice from the penalty spot.
As long as both teams turn up on the night, it promises to be a humdinger of a final.
Also read: 5 things Juventus need to do to beat Real Madrid
