Preview: Manchester City vs Bayern Munich

Background

Manuel Pellegrini will square off against an old foe in Wednesday’s signature clash when Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich visit the Etihad. Neither team has been started their league campaign convincingly (although in Bayern’s case, unconvincing is still good enough for first place), but there can be little doubt that the home side are the underdogs in this contest.

For all their quality and squad depth, City’s two forages so far in the Champions League have ended in failure: in both campaigns they landed a tough group and were shown the door early. Last season they exited in ignominy, with the lowest points total ever of any English side in the competition. But City were not a poor team. In each of their six matches they fought till the death; the margins were close and they were perhaps unlucky to have lost a couple of times, which suggests improper strategizing and want of a steadying hand at the helm.

To fill that void, City’s Arab financiers roped in Pellegrini this summer. An astute and experienced manager, ‘The Engineer’ has conducted four Champions League campaigns and qualified for the knockouts every single time. That European know-how will be sorely tested, however, against an outfit that has reached the last two CL finals, steamrolling all in its wake en route 4 trophies last season; and which is currently shepherded by Guardiola, the competition’s most successful recent manager.

Here too, Pellegrini is up against it: in 8 encounters with Guardiola (all in La Liga), he has lost 7 times and never won. But Europe is a different ball game, and City conceivably have a chance if they use old-fashioned common sense: identifying and attacking Bayern’s weak points, which have been thrown into sharp relief by Guardiola’s tactical tinkering since he took over at the Allianz Arena.

Tactical Overview

Bayern have a settled combination, with perhaps one or two changes to their attack and defence. City on the other hand will probably play a reactive game, trying to find the right minetraps to neutralize Bayern’s Panzers. Which is actually doable if they are disciplined and defend properly, but with each mid-match blowup the latter looks more and more improbable .

Strengths and weaknesses

On the surface, Bayern’s skill set is vast. They can play the passing game with finesse; they are adept at attacking and counter-attacking with speed; if need be, they can resort to sheer brute force to break down dogged defences, and their average player height is good enough for long-ball tactics. In the destruction of Schalke last weekend, we saw a bit of everything. Over 90 minutes, the Bavarians played fantasy football; moving the ball with such speed that, in the words of Raphael Honigstein,

“Bayern did not even afford Schalke the opportunity to foul them – they were always three steps ahead and appeared to be playing with four extra men in midfield.”

But one weakness manifested at the beginning, offering an inlet for City. Since moving Phillip Lahm to defensive midfield, Guardiola has played Rafinha at right-back. The Brazilian lacks the attacking nous of Lahm, which allows the opposition wingers some space on the left. For City, that suggests both David Silva and James Milner should start on that side, given their excellent link-up play.

Offensively, the Bayern engine is now largely dependent on wingers Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben to score the goals. Guardiola prefers two central attacking midfielders between the two, and behind Mandzukic – who are likely to be Toni Kroos and Thomas Muller – so Pellegrini will probably employ Fernandinho as a screen for the defence, allowing Yaya Toure to bomb forward and challenge Bastian Schweinsteiger in central midfield.

Toure vs Schweinsteiger

This clash of the midfield generals will be particularly interesting. Both are physically formidable men, strong in attack as well as defence, but today Schweinsteiger will probably play deep in his own half and try to keep Toure busy there. It suits Bayern to drag City’s best midfielder out of a defensive position and allow their attackers to run into the space behind him, overloading Fernandinho and the suspect City defence that bizarrely conceded three against Aston Villa on the weekend.

Pellegrini will no doubt be aware of this impending headache. He has the option of starting Samir Nasri upfront to mark Schweinsteiger, which would set Toure free in the roaming role that he prefers. Taking on Toure is a major physical task, and, for all his ability, Lahm is just too small for the role. If Toure does get far enough up the field though, he must make his attacks count. Because if he loses the ball in an advanced position, City’s patchwork defence may not be able to withstand a typically devastating Bayern counter-attack.

Zabaleta vs Ribery

In terms of defending, this is really City’s key battle. The scar-faced Frenchman was recently crowned European Player of the Year and is one of Guardiola’s most dependable goalscorers. Zabaleta is arguably the best right-back in the EPL, and will be tasked with closing down Bayern’s winger extraordinaire, whose physicality and astute crossing make him a nightmare for full-backs. While Ribery is still likely to sniff a way through, Zabaleta prides himself on being hard to get past and may even test Ribery’s defensive abilities.

Aguero + Dzeko vs Boateng + Dante

Sergio Aguero’s speed and ruthlessness in finishing makes him a tough man to mark, so this is likely to be the only tactical battle where City have an edge. Boateng will have his work cut out against the Argentine, who has a knack of scoring goals at critical junctures. To complement his dexterity, Pellegrini will probably play either Alvaro Negredo or Edin Dzeko alongside as a large target man in the box to distract the giant Dante, giving Aguero the space he needs alongside. The key issue, of course, will be getting the ball to him through Bayern’s compact midfield.

Conclusion

Both teams routed their hapless opposition on Matchday One, so it is tempting to portray this as a clash of titans. However, Bayern are very much the first among equals. City’s trump card, though, will not be on the playing field but prowling the touchline. It will be interesting to see if Pellegrini can pull a rabbit out of his wizened hat – one capable of upsetting the best-laid plans of even the omnipotent Guardiola.